Monday 10 October 2011

10/10

What a miserable weekend in terms of matches to work with, and it continues today. The International weekend tends to place emphasis on leagues we would not normally consider.

1230pm - Etoile v Geylang Utd - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
17.07.2011 D1 Geylang United 2-3 Etoile FC (S)
17.02.2011 D1 Geylang United 0-2 Etoile FC (S)
31.08.2010 D1 Etoile FC (S) 1-0 Geylang United
05.06.2010 D1 Geylang United 0-1 Etoile FC (S)
29.03.2010 D1 Etoile FC (S) 2-2 Geylang United
28.02.2010 LC Geylang United 2-3 Etoile FC (S)
Etoile have not lost the most recent head to heads but at home, Geylang have been tough opponents. 2-2 and 1-0 in last 2 head to heads at Etoile.

LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 8th

HOME TEAM - Etoile

RECENT HOME FORM -
Fri25/02/11S.LEtoile 0 - 0Balestier Khalsa

Mon07/03/11S.LEtoile 4 - 2Hougang United

Tue22/03/11S.LEtoile 3 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Fri08/04/11S.LEtoile 1 - 2Tampines Rovers

Wed18/05/11S.LEtoile 2 - 0Gombak United

Thu23/06/11S.LEtoile 1 - 2Young Lions

Sat02/07/11S.LEtoile 3 - 0Woodlands Well…

Mon11/07/11S.LEtoile 2 - 0Home United

Thu14/07/11S.LEtoile 3 - 0Balestier Khalsa

Wed03/08/11S.LEtoile 1 - 0Armed Forces

Wed07/09/11S.LEtoile 2 - 7Albirex Niigata S

Mon12/09/11S.LEtoile 3 - 1Hougang United

Mon26/09/11S.LEtoile 6 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Only 1 draw at home and that was the opening match of the day when neither team scored.
9 wins and 3 losses since. Losses v current 2nd , 4th and 10th ( looks anomolous against 10th)
2-7 loss to Albirex at home was very out of the blue.


RECENT FORM OVERALL
Fri13/05/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 0 - 4Etoile

Wed18/05/11S.LEtoile 2 - 0Gombak United

Thu23/06/11S.LEtoile 1 - 2Young Lions

Mon27/06/11S.LTanjong Pagar 0 - 2Etoile

Sat02/07/11S.LEtoile 3 - 0Woodlands Well…

Fri08/07/11S.LTampines Rovers 1 - 0Etoile

Mon11/07/11S.LEtoile 2 - 0Home United

Thu14/07/11S.LEtoile 3 - 0Balestier Khalsa

Sun17/07/11S.LGeylang United 2 - 3Etoile

Wed03/08/11S.LEtoile 1 - 0Armed Forces

Wed10/08/11S.LYoung Lions 1 - 1Etoile

Sun04/09/11S.LHougang United 2 - 1Etoile

Wed07/09/11S.LEtoile 2 - 7Albirex Niigata S

Mon12/09/11S.LEtoile 3 - 1Hougang United

Mon26/09/11S.LEtoile 6 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Tue04/10/11S.LWoodlands Well… 0 - 2Etoile
only 1 draw in last 15. 3 match winning run ended a 3 match run without winning.



GOAL TRENDS - 9 wins, 3 losses, 1 draw 7 clean sheets - 2.38 scored, 1.15 conceded on average at home. Etoile have scored in all of their last 10 matches and have scored in 12 consecutive home matches.

STREAKS - 12 without a draw in the league at home.

AWAY TEAM - Geylang

RECENT AWAY FORM -
Thu03/03/11S.LYoung Lions 3 - 2


Tue15/03/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0


Wed30/03/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 3 - 1


Wed13/04/11S.LWoodlands Well… 2 - 2


Tue26/04/11S.LHome United 2 - 1


Mon09/05/11S.LYoung Lions 3 - 3


Thu19/05/11S.LArmed Forces 3 - 1


Wed25/05/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 3 - 1


Mon20/06/11S.LHougang United 0 - 2


Fri01/07/11S.LTanjong Pagar 0 - 1


Wed03/08/11S.LTampines Rovers 0 - 2


Tue13/09/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0


Wed05/10/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 6 - 1
Only 2 draws away , 2-2 and 3-3 against 10th and 12th ( of 12) saw the draw occur because of 90 minute goals.
Recent winning run against 1st, 6th and 11th saw Geylang keep a clean sheet, then suddenly concede 2 and 6 in the next 2 aways. Inconsistency.

RECENT OVERALL FORM
Thu19/05/11S.LArmed Forces 3 - 1Geylang United

Wed25/05/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 3 - 1Geylang United

Tue31/05/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Gombak United

Mon20/06/11S.LHougang United 0 - 2Geylang United

Fri24/06/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Albirex Niigata S

Mon27/06/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Woodlands Well…

Fri01/07/11S.LTanjong Pagar 0 - 1Geylang United

Sun17/07/11S.LGeylang United 2 - 3Etoile

Wed03/08/11S.LTampines Rovers 0 - 2Geylang United

Mon08/08/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 3Home United

Sat13/08/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Young Lions

Thu08/09/11S.LGeylang United 3 - 2Balestier Khalsa

Tue13/09/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0Geylang United

Fri30/09/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 2Hougang United

Wed05/10/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 6 - 1Geylang United
No draw in 15 overall. 5 losses in last 8 and 3 consecutive losses against 6th, 7th and 3rd.


GOAL TRENDS - 3 wins, 8 losses and 2 draws away 3 clean sheets, 1.31 scored and 2.23 conceded on average away.

STREAKS -no draw in 15 overall

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - the lack of a draw pervades both teams with the 2 away draws for Geylang both caused by a 90th minute goal ( which hints at a successful lay the draw trade as compared to a failed lay the draw bet).
Geylang have a strange habit of being able to win to nil - 7 of last 14 matches saw wins to nil, but most recently, admittedly, Geylang have conceded in 5 of the last 6.
7 clean sheets in 13 home matches for Etoile, as well as an unbeaten head to head run, hints that they should not lose today.

6pm -
Norway U21 v England U21 - 1.77 away - England and Norway are both 2/2 so far in qualifying.
norway have beaten Iceland and Uzbekistan 0-2 in 2 away matches so far.
England beat Azerbaijan 6-0 at home and beat Iceland 0-3 away, outscoring the Norwegians.
This is the only bit of collateral form we can really go on. The England squad certainly is impressive.
Not much else really to go on for me. Both sides have kept clean sheets against the same sides.

620pm -
Atvidabergs v Landskrona - 1.41 home - Swedish 2nd division not for me thanks.

715pm -
San Marino U21 v Germany U21 - 1.01 away - the last team priced at 1.01 scored 11 goals ( Holland I believe). Rather than dismiss these unbackable matches, look for speculative to nil score lines and over 6.5 goals.
6-0, 0-3, 7-0, 2-0 for San Marino sees them lose without scoring.
4-1, 7-0, 0-1, 3-0 all wins for the Germans so far.
It's simply a matter today of how many and a probable win to nil.
745pm -
Oldham v MK Dons - 2.3 away
HEAD TO HEADS
07.05.2011 L1 Oldham Athletic 1-2 Milton Keynes Dons
22.02.2011 L1 Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Oldham Athletic
13.04.2010 L1 Milton Keynes Dons 0-0 Oldham Athletic
29.09.2009 L1 Oldham Athletic 2-1 Milton Keynes Dons
14.03.2009 L1 Milton Keynes Dons 6-2 Oldham Athletic
MK Dons have not lost in 2011 head to heads. -last 4 matches have been tight but inconsistent ( overs, unders, unders, overs)


LEAGUE POSITION - 13th v 4th

HOME TEAM - OLDHAM

RECENT HOME FORM - LWDDL - poor home form albeit early in the season. Draw against current 3rd. Losses against current 7th and 8th and playing current 4th ( I emphasise "current" as this is after 11 matches) Are Oldham vulnerable to the currently better sides? They did not score against the teams they lost to.
SOle win was a 2-0 v Rochdale ( 17th)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWWLDDWWLL - inconsistency, an inability to maintain a sequence of results.All wins have come against the current bottom 9 sides ( coincidence?)

GOAL TRENDS - Under 2.5 goals in 6 of last 8 matches ( 3 2-0's and 2 1-1's did not help!!)Have failed to score in their last 2. Have only kept 2 clean sheets all season. All home matches under 2.5 goals but only just ( 1-1 and 2-0 scorelines). Have conceded in all bar one match at home.

STREAKS - 3 without a win at home, 4 without a win overall.

AWAY TEAM - MK DONS

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWWLD - loss was against 2nd placed ( currently) Sheff Wed. Only 1 point from last 2 matches and only 1 goal away in last 2 matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWWWWWLDDDW -solitary loss so far this season, but a season of 2 halves so far. All wins early on now mostly draws. BUT have played 1st, 2nd and 3rd ( 2 1-1 draws and a loss) as well as a seemingly anomolous 0-0 v 14th placed Bury. What can we conclude? Well MK Dons have simply had a difficult recent run in against current top 3 which explains the sudden halt in winning form.

GOAL TRENDS - mixed bag away as far as overs are concerned. Only 1 of last 4 over 2.5 goals ( albeit 2 1-1s)Have failed to score in only 1 match all season. Kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches. 3 clean sheets away in 5 matches. Have only conceded against 2nd and 10th away

STREAKS - 4 overall without defeat.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - now this is not a league I know at all so my conclusion, as ever, will be based on form.
The last 3 head to heads see MK dons unbeaten and 2 0-0 scorelines. So default insurance bet on 0-0 if doing a match odds trade?
Oldham at home have not beaten current top 11 they have played, and failed to score in 2 of 3 matches. MK Dons are currently 4th -the type of team Oldham might have difficult with? 2 match losing sequence for Oldham where they failed to score . Under 2.5 goals for Oldham down to 1-1 and 2-0 scorelines predominating this early season. Over 1.5 goals therefore the default goals trade( but remember the 2 0-0's in head to heads in last 3)
MK Dons have generally only found the top 3 difficult to play against. Solitary loss this season away to 2nd in the league . Again no real trend goals wise makes a goals trade difficult to nail.
An angle in maybe to back 0-0 and MK dons at a tasty 2.3 to trade off if they score first.
Alternatively, back 0-0 initially for a " stay in as long as you dare" 0-0 back to lay trade ( in the hope this replicates previous tight head to heads)
Or reactive traders perhaps react if Oldham take the lead.
This is my conclusion based on form and no real knowledge of the leagues or current injuries. 2.3 away of course signals no gimme, but an argument can be made that MK Dons seem to only struggle against better sides ( top 3) and Oldham have struggled against top 11 sides currently.


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