Sunday 16 October 2011

16/10

Kilmarnock v Celtic the outstanding enhanced bet of the day yesterday, 3-0 down at halftime, and 3-3 final score for Celtic.

Midday - West Brom v Wolves - 2.12 home
HEAD TO HEADS
08.05.2011 PR Wolverhampton 3-1 West Bromwich
20.02.2011 PR West Bromwich 1-1 Wolverhampton
15.04.2008 LCh Wolverhampton 0-1 West Bromwich
Only 2 recent head to heads of relevance sees Wolves unbeaten. Remember that this is a derby of sorts and the rule is that it is usually the best performing team on the day, rather than any form , that will determine the result of these unique matches.

LEAGUE POSITION - 18th v 14th after 7 matches.

HOME TEAM - West Brom

RECENT HOME FORM - LLD - 1-2 loss to Man Utd unlucky, 0-1 loss to Stoke a 90th minute goal and 0-0 v Fulham hints at a defensive bent.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLWLDD - most recent draw saw WBA 0-2 up away to Sunderland.

GOAL TRENDS - general trend towards unders at home - and overall it's about even.Have failed to score in 3 of the last 5 matches.

STREAKS - no goal scored in 2 at home. 3 without a win at home. 2 match draw sequence.

AWAY TEAM - Wolves

RECENT AWAY FORM - WDL - 1-2 v Blackburn, 0-0 v Villa in another derby, and 2-1 loss to Liverpool.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDLLLL - Wolves in a bit of bother. Losses against Spurs, QPR, Liverpool and Newcastle.

GOAL TRENDS - last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 6/7 matches over 1.5 goals.

STREAKS - 4 match losing streak.5 without a win. Have conceded in all of last 4 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - just because I research the Premiership, as yesterday, it doesn't mean the matches are suited to me. Again we have a messy match form wise. What can I get from the form so far? A real defensive bent from WBA at home suggests unders initially. Wolves have lost last 4 matches suggesting they will seek to end this unwelcome sequence. The last 3 matches have seen early goal concessions which might scupper a 0-0 trade if this continues. For me though WBA are a little lightweight upfront.
A match of little interst I am afraid. Team news important. Odemwingie may be out, as could be Sylvan Ebanks Blake and Fletcher for Wolves

1230pm -
G Furth v Erzgebirge - 1.44 home
1245pm -
Randers v Hjorring - 1,32 home
130pm -
Arsenal v Sunderland - 1.45 home
HEAD TO HEADS
05.03.2011 PR Arsenal FC 0-0 Sunderland AFC
18.09.2010 PR Sunderland AFC 1-1 Arsenal FC
20.02.2010 PR Arsenal FC 2-0 Sunderland AFC
21.11.2009 PR Sunderland AFC 1-0 Arsenal FC
21.02.2009 PR Arsenal FC 0-0 Sunderland AFC
Strong trend towards tight matches but Arsenal have not conceded in last 3 meetings.
LEAGUE POSITION - 15th v 16th in the league - poor starts for both sides after 7 matches.

HOME TEAM - ARSE

RECENT HOME FORM - LWW - unlucky to lose to Liverpool. Very lucky to beat Swansea 1-0 and expected to beat, and did beat, Bolton 3-0. 2 clean sheets in the wins a welcome sight for Wenger against mediocre opposition.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DLLWLWL - inconsistent form and 4 losses a surprise - losses against Liverpool and Man United.4-3 loss to Blackburn unfortunate to say the least, and 1-2 v Spurs in a derby loss. Have played 4 of the current top 6 and suffered 3 losses and a draw.

GOAL TRENDS - only 1 match over 2.5 goals for Arsenal went with the head to heads v Bolton. last 3 matches over 2.5 goals. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Arsenal have scored in their last 5 matches.

STREAKS - 3 without a draw at home, 6 overall. Have scored in last 5.

AWAY TEAM - Sunderland

RECENT AWAY FORM - DDL - 1-1 v Liverpool and 0-0 v Swansea. Loss was 2-1 v Norwich.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLDLWLD - sole win 4-0 v Stoke. Losses v Newcastle, Norwich and Chelsea. Draws against Liverpool, Swansea and WBA

GOAL TRENDS - last 4 matches over 2.5 goals.Have scored in last 4 and conceded in 3/4.

STREAKS - 2 without a win. No strong streaks at all.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads would point to an Arsenal unbeaten today, so 0-0, 1-0, 2-0. The odds back this up . Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in last 2 home matches.Last 3 matches overs for Arsenal and last 4 overs for Sunderland. Do we trust Arsenal shorn of 2 excellent players? Those are the angles based on limited matches. Sunderland are those most tricky of teams for traders - inconsistent. A sudden 4-0 win over Stoke for example was something out of the blue.

130pm -
Feyenoord v VVV - 1.22 home
HEAD TO HEADS
01.05.2011 D1 VVV Venlo 3-2 Feyenoord
27.10.2010 D1 Feyenoord 3-0 VVV Venlo
24.01.2010 D1 VVV Venlo 1-1 Feyenoord
24.10.2009 D1 Feyenoord 1-0 VVV Venlo
11.07.2009 CF VVV Venlo 2-2/p.4-1 Feyenoord
feyenoord have won last 2 home head to heads without conceding. Will this continue? The away matches are a different story.
LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 15th of 18

HOME TEAM - Feyenoord

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWL - have scored 3-2-4-0. Why the sudden lack of goals last match. The ADO defeat somewhat out of the blue.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDDWWLL - 2 losses against ADO a surprise and against AZ no surprise as the latter are really flying. Have won all 4 matches against the current bottom 6 of which VVV is a member.

GOAL TRENDS - all matches over 1.5 goals this season. Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals and 6 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only failed to score in the last match loss at home v ADO.

STREAKS - no draw in 4. Lost last 2 matches.

AWAY TEAM - VVV

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLL - 4-0 v Vitesse, 4-1 v Twente, and 2-0 v ADO ( the team who just beat Feyenoord at home - which begs the question are ADO just having a good run?)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLDLDLLL - no win this season.All draws home draws, 2 of which were score draws against the likes of PSV and Ajax!

GOAL TRENDS - 6 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals with the exception a successful overs match as the score was 2-0 at halftime. Have conceded in all of the last 7 matches. Have failed to score in 2 of the last 3 matches.

STREAKS - no win in 8, have conceded in all of last 7. 3 match losing streak. 3 match losing streak

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - ADO have beaten both teams recently. Is this a case of ADO just being on a solid run. Their 0-3 win against Feyenoord at home spoilt a recent solid home run which saw plenty of Feyenoord goals. VVV have not won this season and the odds suggest they will have to wait. FEyenoord have comfortably beaten teams around VVV's. Over 2.5 goals could be a goer but VVV have not scored in 2 of last 3.

2pm -
FK Jablonec v Pribram - 1.31 home
2pm -
Genoa v Lecce - 1.6 home
HEAD TO HEADS
23.04.2011 D1 Genoa CFC 4-2 US Lecce
05.12.2010 D1 US Lecce 1-3 Genoa CFC
31.05.2009 D1 Genoa CFC 4-1 US Lecce
18.01.2009 D1 US Lecce 0-2 Genoa CFC
Genoa have score 4-3-4 in last 3 meetings which makes the current 1.6 of some appeal ( based solely on head to heads though!)
LEAGUE POSITION - 13th v 18th after 5 matches

HOME TEAM - Genoa

RECENT HOME FORM - DW - 2-2 v Atalanta and 3-0 v Catania.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWLL - losses against Chievo and Verona both away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - all matches over 2.5 goals .Have scored in all matches and only kept one clean sheet.

STREAKS - no defeat in 2 at home. Have scored in last 5.No draw in 4.

AWAY TEAM - Lecce -

RECENT AWAY FORM - WL - 0-2 v Bologna and 3-0 loss v Siena.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLL - sole win against current bottom of the league ( remember only 5 matches)

GOAL TRENDS - have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches this season. Have conceded in 4 of 5 this season. The only reason these matches have not been over 2.5 goals is simply because 3 scorelines have been 2-0.

STREAKS - 3 match losing streak.No draw in 5

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - again only 5 matches means we cannot really be conclusive or ultra confident, but what conclusions can I come to from the information I have? Well genoa in head to heads enjoy playing Lecce, having scored 4-3-4 in last 3 meetings. 1.6 though does not reflect such dominance. Over 1.5 goals may have legs here as this could be a 2-0. Over 2.5 goals will be based on the time of a 2nd goal ( if there is one. ) Only 1 draw between these 2 sides this season and no draw in head to heads. genoa could be capable of an opening goal.

330pm -
Breda v Excelsior - 1.42 home
HEAD TO HEADS
16.04.2011 D1 NAC Breda 1-2 SBV Excelsior
15.12.2010 D1 SBV Excelsior 1-3 NAC Breda
Only 2 recent head to heads and they are not reflective of any side being 1.42.
LEAGUE POSITION - 14th v 18th of 18

HOME TEAM - Breda

RECENT HOME FORM - LDLW - 0-1 loss v Twente, 2-2 draw v Groningen ( 2-0 down), 1-3 loss v Feyenoord, and 1-0 win over Utrecht.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLDLLWWL - and they are 1.42! Excelsior must be pants.Wins against NEC and Utrecht.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 of last 7 over 2.5 goals.Have scored in all bar 1st match of season and kept a clean sheet in only 1 match this season.

STREAKS - 5 without a draw, have scored in all last 7 including 3 at home.

AWAY TEAM - Excelsior

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLL - 2-0 v NEC, 6-1 PSV and 2-0 Groningen. Where do Breda fit in terms of strength compared to these 3? Excelsior have failed to score in 2 matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLDLLLLD - no win this season. Draws both score draws.

GOAL TRENDS - 4 2-0 losses have again spoilt the over 2.5 goals trend. Have failed to score in 2/3 at home and in 2 of last 3 matches. Have failed to score in half of all matches this season. Have conceded in all matches this season.

STREAKS - no win this season. 3 match losing streak away. Have conceded in all of last 8.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is poor v poorer it would seem. It is always difficult getting enthused about an out of form team beating an even more out of form team. Head to heads are inconclusive.Over 1.5 goals covers a 2-0 scoreline ( Excelsior have had 4 such scorelines)

4pm -
Newcastle v Tottenham - 2.54 away
HEAD TO HEADS
22.01.2011 PR Newcastle Utd 1-1 Tottenham
28.12.2010 PR Tottenham 2-0 Newcastle Utd
19.04.2009 PR Tottenham 1-0 Newcastle Utd
Only really 2 matches of relevance. 1-1 in January. First post transfer meeting between these 2.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 6th. Newcastle have played 7, Spurs have played 6.

HOME TEAM - Newcastle

RECENT HOME FORM - DWW - draw v Arsenal 0-0 , wins 2-1 v Fulham and 3-1 v Blackburn.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DWWDDWW - unbeaten this season . Wins against Sunderland, Fulham, Blackburn, Wolves. ( 12th, 14th, 16th, 20th in the league are the positions which suggests Newcastle are yet to be truly tested.) Draws against Villa, QPR and Arsenal.

GOAL TRENDS - last 2 matches over 2.5 goals at home. Have conceded in those 2 home wins.Have scored and conceded in 4 of the last 5 matches. Last 2 matches, both wins, have been over 2.5 goals and have seen Ba scoring for Newcastle. He seems to be the man who could change things today? Best and Ba the likeliest goalscorers.

STREAKS - no defeat in 7, 2 match winning streak at home.

AWAY TEAM - SPUDS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWW - 3-0 loss v Man Utd, 0-2 and 1-2 wins over Wolves and Wigan. 2 teams in poor form.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWWWW - losses v United and City have then seen wins v Wolves, Liverpool, Wigan and Arsenal.

GOAL TRENDS - 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals. The exception a 2-0 win over Wolves with 2 late goals which would not have made for a successful over 2.5 goals trade. Have scored in all matches bar the opening match.

STREAKS - 4 match winning streak, no draw this season.Have scored in last 5.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - a suggestion these are 2 in form sides. A look at the teams Newcastle have played, and bar Arsenal, they are not really top 7 teams. Spurs are. GOod runs of form,though, can help teams play above themselves and home advantage could be key?Lennon a possible doubt, along with Adebayour for Spuds. Ba is playing for Newcastle and in the form he is in, could be the difference. A toughie to call or get an angle in, but I would suggest Spurs are the best team Newcastle have played thus far. Are they flattered by the teams they have played so far?


415pm -
Lokomotiv v Tomsk - 1.2 home
5pm -
Derry v Galway Utd - 1.07 home
HEAD TO HEADS
05.08.2011 PR Galway United 0-3 Derry City
30.05.2011 PR Derry City 6-0 Galway United
15.04.2011 PR Galway United 1-4 Derry City
13.04.2010 LC Derry City 3-2 Galway United
13.02.2010 CF Derry City 2-1 Galway United
About ties in with the 1.07 quote
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 10th of 10.

HOME TEAM - Derry

RECENT HOME FORM - LDWDWWDWWDWDWWDD - only 1 loss at home and playing a side who want the season to end.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDWWWDWWWDWDDWL - recent loss 1-0 v Shamrock in a title match

GOAL TRENDS - 31% overs at home.Have scored 2-2-6 against bottom 3.
Only 2 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals. Have conceded in 5 of last 6.

STREAKS - 15 at home without defeat.

AWAY TEAM - galway

RECENT AWAY FORM - have lost the last 13 matches

RECENT OVERALL FORM - 22 losses, a draw, 4 losses in last 27 matches.

GOAL TRENDS - 68% overs away from home. 3.45 conceded away on average.last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. 20 of last 24 matches over 2.5 goals. Have only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches this season ( part of first 4 matches of season).
Galway have scored in 6 of last 7 matches.

STREAKS - no win in 29, have conceded in last 29.13 match losing streak away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - if you want safety then perhaps over 2.5 goals as galway are scoring at least recently.

530pm -
Dinamo Kiev v Volyn - 1.12 home
7pm -
Rosenborg v Aalesunds - 1.3 home
HEAD TO HEADS
13.08.2011 Cup Aalesund FK 3-1 Rosenborg BK
16.06.2011 D1 Aalesund FK 1-3 Rosenborg BK
24.02.2011 CF Rosenborg BK 4-2 Aalesund FK
07.11.2010 D1 Rosenborg BK 2-2 Aalesund FK
19.04.2010 D1 Aalesund FK 1-1 Rosenborg BK
07.03.2010 SC Aalesund FK 1-3 Rosenborg BK
Ignoring the cup match, Rosenborg are unbeaten in 5 most recent head to heads .
LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 11th after 24 matches.

HOME TEAM - Rosenborg

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWWWW - great recent home form.Lost to 7th and 9th. Have not played 11th, 12th, 13th. ( Aalesund are 11th) so we cannot really gauge how Rosenborg perform against similar opponents.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWDWWWWLW - losses recently were away losses against 2nd and 9th.

GOAL TRENDS - 72% overs at home. 2.90 goals scored on average at home. 7 of last 8 matches over 2.5 goals.Rosenborg have scored 3-2-7-6-4-2-0-5 in recent matches.

STREAKS - 7 match home winning streak.6 overall without a draw.

AWAY TEAM - AALESUNDS

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDLLLDDL - only 2 wins have come against 9th and 15th ( of 16) away. Recent draws against 8th and 14th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DWLLLLDLDWLWD - last 3 wins have all come at home against 10th, 16th, and 4th.
GOAL TRENDS - 42% overs away from home. Have not won away to top 8. Have lost against top 4.

STREAKS - no win away in last 7. Have kept a clean sheet in last 2 and have failed to score in 2 of last 3.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Rosenborg have scored 2-4-3 in recent head to heads in the league. a 7 match home winning streak and always worth siding with proven winners when priced to continue that winning streak. Recent losses were away losses. Superb goalscoring record for Rosenborg.No win in last 7 away. No real congruency in goal trends suggests a straight Rosenborg win? Lost 5-2, 2-0, and 1-0 against other top 4 sides away. Rosenborg could realistically score 3+ today if recent goalscoring exploits continue? But what to make of Aalesund's recent 2 clean sheets and inability to score in 2 of last 3.

9pm -
Sevilla v Gijon - 1.45 home
HEAD TO HEADS
01.03.2011 D1 Sevilla FC 3-0 Sporting Gijón
17.10.2010 D1 Sporting Gijón 2-0 Sevilla FC
17.04.2010 D1 Sevilla FC 3-0 Sporting Gijón
13.12.2009 D1 Sporting Gijón 0-1 Sevilla FC
01.02.2009 D1 Sporting Gijón 1-0 Sevilla FC
Sevilla have won 3-0 in last 2 home head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 20th of 20.

HOME TEAM - Sevilla

RECENT HOME FORM - WWW - 2-1against Malaga - 2-0 up. 1-0's against Sociedad and Valencia.Should be 3 clean sheets at home really.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWD - 2-2 v Villareal away and 2 0-0 away draws v Osasuna and Athl Madrid.

GOAL TRENDS - over 2.5 goals in first 2 matches of season only.Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in their last 4 matches and failed to score in their last 2 aways.

STREAKS - 6 match unbeaten run. 3 match home winning streak. No goal conceded in 4.

AWAY TEAM - Gijon. Bottom side set to struggle against defensively sound home side?

RECENT AWAY FORM - LL - 2-1 v Osasuna and 4-0 v Athl Madrid

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLLDL - recent loss 0-1 v Barca was impressive given Barca's goalscoring exploits. gijon better at home than away.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 over 2.5 goals in 2 matches.Gijon have failed to score in last 4 matches.

STREAKS - 6 without a win, no goal scored in 4 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - so a team who have not conceded in 4 are playing a team who have not scored in 4. Surely this puts the first goal in Sevilla's court. 0-0, 1-0, 2-0 scorelines a possible?




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