Tuesday 25 October 2011

25/10

1230pm - Singapore Armed Forces v Courts Young Lions - 1.29 home
HEAD TO HEADS
07.08.2011 D1 Singapore Armed Forces 3-0 Young Lions
12.02.2011 D1 Young Lions 0-2 Singapore Armed Forces
07.10.2010 D1 Singapore Armed Forces 5-2 Young Lions
17.06.2010 D1 Young Lions 1-0 Singapore Armed Forces
08.04.2010 D1 Young Lions 4-3 Singapore Armed Forces
Singapore won the last 3 head to heads and kept a clean sheet in 2.

LEAGUE POSITION - 5th v 9th - SAF have 2 games in hand and winning them both will put them around 3rd

HOME TEAM - SAF

RECENT HOME FORM -
Wed23/02/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Tue08/03/11S.LArmed Forces 5 - 0Woodlands Well…

Thu24/03/11S.LArmed Forces 0 - 1Tampines Rovers

Thu07/04/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 0Home United

Fri22/04/11S.LArmed Forces 1 - 1Etoile

Thu19/05/11S.LArmed Forces 3 - 1Geylang United

Wed01/06/11S.LArmed Forces 1 - 0Balestier Khalsa

Sat25/06/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Gombak United

Sun10/07/11S.LArmed Forces 0 - 1Hougang United

Wed13/07/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Albirex Niigata S

Sun07/08/11S.LArmed Forces 3 - 0Young Lions

Thu11/08/11S.LArmed Forces 4 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Sun11/09/11S.LArmed Forces 7 - 0Woodlands Well…

Tue27/09/11S.LArmed Forces 1 - 3Tampines Rovers

Sun16/10/11S.LArmed Forces 0 - 4Home United
Only 1 draw at home this season and certainly not priced to draw today. Lost last 2 against 1st and 2nd.Prior to the last 2 losses, won 7 of last 8.


RECENT FORM OVERALL - no draw in last 16.
Sat25/06/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Gombak United

Wed06/07/11S.LHome United 3 - 2Armed Forces

Sun10/07/11S.LArmed Forces 0 - 1Hougang United

Wed13/07/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Albirex Niigata S

Wed03/08/11S.LEtoile 1 - 0Armed Forces

Sun07/08/11S.LArmed Forces 3 - 0Young Lions

Thu11/08/11S.LArmed Forces 4 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Sun11/09/11S.LArmed Forces 7 - 0Woodlands Well…

Wed14/09/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 1 - 3Armed Forces

Tue27/09/11S.LArmed Forces 1 - 3Tampines Rovers

Sun16/10/11S.LArmed Forces 0 - 4Home United

Wed19/10/11S.LHougang United 1 - 3Armed Forces

GOAL TRENDS - last 7 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - no draw in last 16 matches overall.

AWAY TEAM - Young Lions.

RECENT AWAY FORM -
Sun17/04/11S.LTampines Rovers 1 - 0Young Lions

Tue24/05/11S.LGombak United 1 - 2Young Lions

Tue31/05/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 4 - 2Young Lions

Thu23/06/11S.LEtoile 1 - 2Young Lions

Thu07/07/11S.LWoodlands Well… 0 - 4Young Lions

Sun07/08/11S.LArmed Forces 3 - 0Young Lions

Sat13/08/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Young Lions

Sat17/09/11S.LHougang United 1 - 1Young Lions

Wed28/09/11S.LHome United 2 - 0Young Lions

Mon03/10/11S.LTanjong Pagar 3 - 1Young Lions

Thu06/10/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 1 - 0Young Lions

Sat22/10/11S.LTampines Rovers 4 - 1Young Lions
No win in last 7, losing 6 of the matches,

RECENT OVERALL FORM -
Tue02/08/11S.LYoung Lions 2 - 0Hougang United

Sun07/08/11S.LArmed Forces 3 - 0Young Lions

Wed10/08/11S.LYoung Lions 1 - 1Etoile

Sat13/08/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Young Lions

Fri09/09/11S.LYoung Lions 0 - 1Gombak United

Wed14/09/11S.LYoung Lions 1 - 1Albirex Niigata S

Sat17/09/11S.LHougang United 1 - 1Young Lions

Wed28/09/11S.LHome United 2 - 0Young Lions

Mon03/10/11S.LTanjong Pagar 3 - 1Young Lions

Thu06/10/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 1 - 0Young Lions

Sat15/10/11S.LYoung Lions 5 - 1Woodlands Well…

Sat22/10/11S.LTampines Rovers 4 - 1Young Lions
Recent win against Woodlands not unexpected as Woodlands are poor. Only one win in last 11.Have drawn with 3rd, 4th and 6th and guess what? Playing 5th today. All draws were 1-1. Is this merely a coincidence ? remember that SAF don't do draws!

GOAL TRENDS - UUUUUUOUOO ( where u = unders, o = overs) recently. Trending more towards overs than unders.

STREAKS - Only 1 win in last 11.Lost last 4 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - standout stat? Only 1 draw at home and no draw in 16 overall for SAF. With odds at 1.29, market expects the home win rather than the away win.But what to make of Young Lions draws against 3rd, 4th and 6th placed ( remember SAF are 5th).Perhaps a 1-1 insurance bet here included in all bets?

2pm -
HASK Zagreb v Dinamo Zagreb - 1.11 away - Croatian Cup. Division 2 v Division 1 - totally illiquid.
5pm -
Valladolid v Alcoyano - 1.57 home
HEAD TO HEADS
no relevant head to heads.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 15th after 9 matches.

HOME TEAM - valladolid

RECENT HOME FORM - WLWW- loss v current 12th, wins v current 7th, 10th, 16th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWDLDWDDW - 4 consecutive 1-1 draws have all come away from home. We can infer therefore that home matches mean that little bit more at the present time. They have scored 2-2-1-2 at home , 2 goals in all wins, either 2-1 and 2-0.

GOAL TRENDS - have scored in all matches this season and only kept a clean sheet in 2 matches ( the first 2 matches of the season) 3/4 over 2.5 goal matches came at home.

STREAKS - no draw at home. 2 match winning streak at home.

AWAY TEAM - ALCOYANO

RECENT AWAY FORM - LDWL - losses 1-0 against 1st and 11th away. Draw was a 3-3 and win a 2-1. Altogether tight matches played so far. Wins and draws against current 2nd and 3rd bottom ( but remember only a handful of matches played this season so this might just be coincidence rather than any set in stone stat)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DLLDDWWLL - wins?Home and away against 6th and 21st ( of 22).Recent losses against 1st away and 17th at home

GOAL TRENDS - 50/50 overs away from home. 2 of the 3 overs in total were away from home. Have only kept 1 clean sheet this season.

STREAKS - 4 overall without a draw and have conceded in last 4 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no head to heads and when teams meet for the first time, we always have to be cautious. No draw at home for Valladolid - will that continue? Alcorocn's only draw was a 3-3 which suggests a lay of the draw could have wings as we could see a see saw match? Valladolid have scored 2 goals on 3/4 matches at home but Alcoyano have only conceded more than 1 on 3 occasions. What will give today?

545pm -
Heerenveen v Harkemase Boys - 1.06 home - likely illiquid market will scupper any value bets on the goals markets.
7pm -
Excelsior v GVVV - 1.14 home-Another Dutch Cup match featuring Division 1 v TKsat side so a good gulf in leagues.
7pm -
Granada v Barcelona - 1.14 away - league match and the 0-0 draw was not as unexpected if you had read my analysis.
HEAD TO HEADS - no head to heads

LEAGUE POSITION - 3rd v 18th after 8 matches.

HOME TEAM - Granada

RECENT HOME FORM - LWDD - granada carrying on the tradition of being newcomers tough to beat at home. 0-1 loss to Betis, 1-0 win against Villareal, 1-1 draw with Osasuna, and 0-0 v ath Madrid. Goals conceded at home in 88th minute and 29th minute. Only 2 goals conceded at home. Have yet to play any of the current top 6 at home ( and I remind you only 8 matches played)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLWLDLDL - sole win was at home and a 1-0.

GOAL TRENDS - only 1 match over 2.5 goals 3 1-0's ( all losses) , a 0-0, a 1-0 loss, a 1-1, a 2-0 loss and a 4-0 loss. Have failed to score in 6/8 matches this season.

STREAKS - 2 match home draw streak, no defeat in 3 at home.No win in 5 overall.

AWAY TEAM - Barca

RECENT AWAY FORM - DDW - faltering away with 2 2-2 draws v Valencia and real sociedad ( 2-0 up in that match!) Win was a 0-1 v Gijon

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WDWDWWWD - unbeaten this season.

GOAL TRENDS - 5-2-8-2-5-1-3-0 scored by Barca this season.Have failed to score in only 1 match ( 0-0 v Sevilla latest) .Have kept a clean sheet in last 4 and in 6 of 8 matches this season .
2 of last 3 matches under 2.5 goals.


STREAKS - 3 away without defeat and have scored in their last 3 away.Have kept a clean sheet in last 4 matches.No defeat in 8.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - this is another match which could conceivably be tricky for Barca as has historically happened when meeting new La Liga teams away for the first time.0-0 could be conceivable away but ask yourself when was the last time Barca tolerated 2 consecutive 0-0 scorelines? I recall 1-1 v Levante and 0-0 v another newcomer team in 2010 away so you have been warned.
This though is a must win for 3rd placed barca. 1.14 signals 3/4 goals. 0-0 likely to be a huge price for the speculator( 42) but Betfair's over 8.5 goals market might be ominous!
Not as straightforward a match as it would seem, and we have seen before with teams meeting for the first time that the expected might not occur.

730pm -
Dortmund v Dynamo Dresden - 1.16 home 1-2 to Dortmund in 2010 friendly. German Cup match and Division 1 v Division 2. Tough to call as we are unaware how Dortmund will approach this match,
730pm -
Eintracht Trier v Hamburg - 1.39 away - REg w v Division 1 in another German Cup match .
745pm -
Aldershot v Man Utd - 1.23 away - another match of circumstance. A 6-1 humbling by Man City must be addressed this evening. Another humiliating loss to lower league teams must be avoided. Team news key. Berba could play but he is a tad ring rusty. Michael ( best before 1996) Owen could be the value goalscorer. Remember this is the Carling Cup but do expect United to redress what happened at the weekend.
745pm -
Arsenal v Bolton - 1.56 home - Bolton hate playing at Arsenal and tend to concede 3. Again no point going into lengthy form analysis of a Carling Cup match as Arse will change the team.No draw in last 12 for Bolton ( could be more!) and I suspect Bolton have Premiership survival in mind rather than this Cup.
Arsenal have had 2 draws only in 32 Carling Cup matches.
Only 1 draw in 14 home mathes.
Have won 12 of last 14 carling Cup home matches.
amazingly Arsenal have scored 2 or more in 12 of last 14 home matches.
Bolton have not had a draw in last 14 Calring Cup matches. No draw in 10 away
Some interesting trends re Carling Cup only matches for these 2. The lack of a draw important.
745pm -
Kilmarnock v East Fife - 1.27 home
Premier League v Division 2 in the Scottish Cup. Killy's recent 3 goals scored against Celtic might augur well this evening? Quarter final stage has to be factored in. again, no draw in 20 league cup matches. No draw in 15 home league cup matches and 14/15 home matches over 2.5 goals - the exception a 0-2 loss to Rangers which was a successful over 2.5 goals match.
No draw for East Fife in 12 League cup matches.
Last 7 matches overs.
have conceded 3-3-0-4-3-in 5 away League Cup matches.
Another set of interesting stats. It seems cup matches in the UK feature teams that like to play to win, hence the sparcity of draws.
745pm -
Marseille v Lens - 1.47 home - French league cup - no draw in 15 for marseille in the cup, winning last 8.
LWWWWW at home in the cup scoring 3-2-2-2-2-1
No draw in 21 for Lens in the Cup.
No draw in 12 away.
Amazing how this lack of draws continues Europe wide in cup matches.
745pm -
St Mirren v Ayr - 1.47 home
09.07.2011 CF Ayr United 1-0 St. Mirren
05.02.2011 Cup Ayr United 1-2 St. Mirren
14.07.2010 CF Ayr United 1-3 St. Mirren
26.08.2009 LC Ayr United 0-2 St. Mirren
18.07.2009 CF Ayr United 0-1 St. Mirren
No meeting at St Mirren recently in head to heads. WWWWL for St Mirren in head to heads.
Again no draw in 17 for St Mirren in this Cup.
LLWLWWL - last 2 losses 0-1 vEast Fife and Rangers.
14/15 without a draw for Ayr overall.
LWWLWLW for ayr away
9pm - Sevilla v Santander - 1.44 home
HEAD TO HEADS
12.02.2011 D1 Racing Santander 3-2 Sevilla FC
23.09.2010 D1 Sevilla FC 1-1 Racing Santander
05.05.2010 D1 Racing Santander 1-5 Sevilla FC
09.01.2010 D1 Sevilla FC 1-2 Racing Santander
recent loss to Santander saw a Sevilla missed penalty and a Santander 92nd minute winner.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 20th after 8 matches

HOME TEAM - Sevilla

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWW - 2-1-1-2 scored. 1-0 wins against current 1st and 15th. 2-1 wins saw Sevilla 2-0 up in both matches.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWDWD - winning at home and drawing away - simples! Have only played one team around today's in the league, winning 2-1 v 19th placed Gijon.

GOAL TRENDS - either 1-0 or 2-1 at home. 3 0-0's and a 2-2 away.Have scored 5 of their 8 matches in the first 1/2 hour of matches. Have kept a clean sheet in 5 of the last 6 matches, the exception a 64th minute goal by Gijon.

STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak.No defeat in 8. 4 clean sheets in last 5.

AWAY TEAM - Santander

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLDL - losses saw 3-4-4 conceded against 3rd , 5th and 9th ( and playing 4th today)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDLDDDLL - no win this season. Have drawn 0-0 at home to 1st and 2nd, and lost to 3rd and 5th ( playing 4th today and augurs well for Sevilla)

GOAL TRENDS - 3/4 away matches over 2.5 goals. Have failed to score in 6 of 8 matches .

STREAKS - no win in 8, have failed to score in last 3 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I don't know if I am missing something here, but 1.44 looks tasty considering the form. Likely to see goals, and another 2-1? But racing have failed to score in 6 of last 8 matches.

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