Thursday 27 October 2011

27/10

1230pm - Gombak Utd v Tanjong Pagar Utd - 1.26 home
HEAD TO HEADS
09.07.2011 D1 Tanjong Pagar Utd 0-0 Gombak United
19.04.2011 D1 Gombak United 3-0 Tanjong Pagar Utd
07.08.2002 D1 Gombak United 2-4 Tanjong Pagar Utd
Looks like Tanjong are the newcomers. No goal conceded by Gomback in the 2 meetings in 2011.
LEAGUE POSITION - 7th v 11th of 12 -Gombak have generally played 2 fewer matches than opponents

HOME TEAM - Gombak

RECENT HOME FORM -
Fri18/02/11S.LGombak United 1 - 1Tampines Rovers

Tue01/03/11S.LGombak United 1 - 0Etoile

Tue15/03/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0Geylang United

Mon28/03/11S.LGombak United 0 - 1Armed Forces

Tue05/04/11S.LGombak United 0 - 1Hougang United

Tue19/04/11S.LGombak United 3 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Thu12/05/11S.LGombak United 1 - 4Home United

Tue24/05/11S.LGombak United 1 - 2Young Lions

Mon20/06/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0Balestier Khalsa

Mon04/07/11S.LGombak United 1 - 5Albirex Niigata S

Fri12/08/11S.LGombak United 3 - 0Woodlands Well…

Tue13/09/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0Geylang United

Thu13/10/11S.LGombak United 3 - 1Hougang United
No draw in 12 home matches. 6 of Gombak's last 7 wins were to nil.1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 9th - the losses for Gombak at home.
It seems perhaps that if we can build an argument for a clean sheeet, we can assume a win. Gom have won 2-0 and 3-0 against 10th and 12th ( and playing 11th today)

RECENT FORM OVERALL -
Sat25/06/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Gombak United

Thu30/06/11S.LHougang United 3 - 2Gombak United

Mon04/07/11S.LGombak United 1 - 5Albirex Niigata S

Sat09/07/11S.LTanjong Pagar 0 - 0Gombak United

Fri05/08/11S.LHome United 2 - 1Gombak United

Fri12/08/11S.LGombak United 3 - 0Woodlands Well…

Fri09/09/11S.LYoung Lions 0 - 1Gombak United

Tue13/09/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0Geylang United

Thu29/09/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 0 - 2Gombak United

Thu13/10/11S.LGombak United 3 - 1Hougang United

Fri21/10/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 1 - 1Gombak United
A good recent unbeaten run with wins against 6th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 12th and 1-1 draw v 3rd.


GOAL TRENDS - 4 of last 5 matches overall were under 2.5 goals. Last 8 matches over 1.5 goals. A few 2-0's scupper the over 2.5 goals. Clean sheets in 6/7 home wins.

STREAKS - no draw in 12 at home.

AWAY TEAM - Tanjong

RECENT AWAY FORM -
Wed16/02/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 5 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Wed23/02/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Thu10/03/11S.LTampines Rovers 4 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Tue22/03/11S.LEtoile 3 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Mon04/04/11S.LGeylang United 2 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Tue19/04/11S.LGombak United 3 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Tue17/05/11S.LWoodlands Well… 0 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Fri27/05/11S.LHome United 3 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Sun19/06/11S.LYoung Lions 0 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Tue05/07/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 2 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Thu04/08/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 1 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Thu11/08/11S.LArmed Forces 4 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Thu08/09/11S.LTampines Rovers 1 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Mon26/09/11S.LEtoile 6 - 1Tanjong Pagar

Thu06/10/11S.LHougang United 4 - 3Tanjong Pagar

Thu13/10/11S.LGeylang United 2 - 0Tanjong Pagar
no draw away yet.14 defeats and 2 0-1 wins against 9th and 12th. Have coincidentally played the 2 teams either side of Gombak in the league, losing 4-3 and 2-0. The 4-3 saw Tanjong 3-0 down in the first half.


GOAL TRENDS - have failed to score in 9 away matches. 5 of last 6 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - no draw in 16 away. 7 match away losing streak. No draw in 9 overall. Only 1 win in last 13 matches was against 9th.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS
Gombak - have not conceded in 2 2011 head to heads but what do we make of the 0-0 last time? ( call for a 0-0 insurance bet?)
No draw in 12 at home for Gombak. 6 of 7 home wins have been to nil so if you expect a win, then there is the potential for a correct score to nil, to enhance the odds. Gomb have won 2-0 and 3-0 against 10th and 12th so the evidence is building for a scoreline without conceding. 5 wins and a draw in last 6 overall , with 4 clean sheets sees Gombak in good recent overall form.
The over 2.5 goals might be scuppered by a 2--0 scoreline ( and a successful trade will be solely dependent on the time of the 2nd goal)
Tanjong - no draw yet away for Tanjong and only 2 wins, both 0-1 against 9th and 12th, points to the only other alternative, an home win for Gombak.
Have failed to score in 9 of last 13 matches, which again suggests a GOmbak win to nil. Recent 4-3 v Hougang something of an enigma - 3-0 down, draw 3-3 and lost to a 90th minute goal.Only 1 win in last 13 ( and they hate draws so again this points to home win today)
Gombak should score first.
Speculative bet? Try a correct score win to nil here. MAybe the 0-0 is a speculative goer given the most recent head to head? 0-0, 2-0, 3-0 correct score potential for me.

2pm -
FC Vaslui v Dunarea Galati - -1.22 home - romanian cup. I did mention laying ultra short prices is the cups as a bet to nothing yesterday and you would have been successful ( as a trader) as Twente went 1-2 down. Also, Anderlecht at 1.07 went 0-2 down in their Cup match. This is Division 1 v Division 2A. A bit too big for the lays like yesterday ( where liability to win £ 100 was as low as £4!!) .
3pm -
Alania Vladikavkaz v Luch-Energiya - 1.26 home - Russian 2nd division not quite on my radar.
4pm -
Bate Borisov v Vitebsk - 1.32 home - ditto the Bulgarian top flight.
4pm -
Zenit St Petersburg v Volga Nyzhnyi Novgorod - 1.16 home - not on soccerstats but is a league match and odds suggest 3/4 goals win for Zenit.
HEAD TO HEADS
18.06.2011 D1 Volga N.Novgorod 0-2 Zenit St Petersburg
Routine win with 2 goals within 19 minutes.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 13th after 28 matches.

HOME TEAM - Zenit

RECENT HOME FORM -
Mon21/03/11PRLZenit 2 - 0Anzhi Makhachkala

Sun10/04/11PRLZenit 0 - 3CSKA Moskva

Sun24/04/11PRLZenit 3 - 0Krylya Sovetov

Sun08/05/11PRLZenit 1 - 1Lokomotiv Moskva

Sun15/05/11PRLZenit 2 - 2Rubin Kazan'

Sun29/05/11PRLZenit 3 - 0Spartak Moskva

Tue14/06/11PRLZenit 4 - 0Rostov

Wed22/06/11PRLZenit 1 - 0Kuban' Krasnodar

Sun26/06/11PRLZenit 0 - 0Terek Grozny

Sun31/07/11PRLZenit 1 - 0Spartak Nal'chik

Sun14/08/11PRLZenit 1 - 1Amkar Perm'

Sun28/08/11PRLZenit 5 - 0Krasnodar

Sat24/09/11PRLZenit 4 - 0Tom' Tomsk

Sat15/10/11PRLZenit 0 - 0Dinamo Moskva
Only 1 loss at home was v CSKA, not unexpected.
Recent draws against 4th, 11th and 12th.
RECENT FORM OVERALL
Wed22/06/11PRLZenit 1 - 0Kuban' Krasnodar

Sun26/06/11PRLZenit 0 - 0Terek Grozny

Sun24/07/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 0 - 1Zenit

Sun31/07/11PRLZenit 1 - 0Spartak Nal'chik

Sat06/08/11PRLCSKA Moskva 0 - 2Zenit

Sun14/08/11PRLZenit 1 - 1Amkar Perm'

Sat20/08/11PRLKrylya Sovetov 2 - 5Zenit

Sun28/08/11PRLZenit 5 - 0Krasnodar

Sat10/09/11PRLLokomotiv Moskva 4 - 2Zenit

Sun18/09/11PRLRubin Kazan' 2 - 3Zenit

Sat24/09/11PRLZenit 4 - 0Tom' Tomsk

Sun02/10/11PRLSpartak Moskva 2 - 2Zenit

Sat15/10/11PRLZenit 0 - 0Dinamo Moskva

Sun23/10/11PRLRostov 1 - 3Zenit
Only 1 loss in last 18 matches was away to current 3rd placed. Recent draws against 4th and 5th. So dropping points, it would seem, only against the top 5 clubs. 5-2, 4-0 and 1-0 wins against bottom 3, and today's opponents only 4th bottom.


GOAL TRENDS - have kept 8 clean sheets in the last 9 home matches. 5 of last 7 matches at home were under 2.5 goals. The exceptions 4-0 and 5-0 wins v 9th and 16th ( of 16)

STREAKS - unbeaten in 12 at home. Only 1 goal conceded in last 8 at home.

AWAY TEAM - Volga

RECENT AWAY FORM -
Mon21/03/11PRLSpartak Moskva 1 - 0Volga

Sun10/04/11PRLRostov 1 - 3Volga

Sun17/04/11PRLLokomotiv Moskva 1 - 0Volga

Sat30/04/11PRLTerek Grozny 1 - 0Volga

Sat14/05/11PRLSpartak Nal'chik 1 - 1Volga

Mon30/05/11PRLAmkar Perm' 1 - 0Volga

Tue14/06/11PRLKrasnodar 4 - 2Volga

Wed22/06/11PRLRubin Kazan' 2 - 0Volga

Sun26/06/11PRLTom' Tomsk 0 - 3Volga

Sun31/07/11PRLDinamo Moskva 2 - 0Volga

Sun21/08/11PRLKuban' Krasnodar 5 - 0Volga

Sun11/09/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 2 - 1Volga

Sat24/09/11PRLCSKA Moskva 3 - 1Volga

Sat15/10/11PRLKrylya Sovetov 0 - 0Volga
1st season in the top flight it would seem. 2 wins away only against 10th and bottom sides, scoring 3 goals in both matches.
1-0, 2-0 and 3-1 losses against Zenit's partners in the top 4.

RECENT OVERALL FORM
Sun24/07/11PRLVolga 0 - 2Spartak Moskva

Sun31/07/11PRLDinamo Moskva 2 - 0Volga

Sat06/08/11PRLVolga 0 - 1Rostov

Sun14/08/11PRLVolga 0 - 0Lokomotiv Moskva

Sun21/08/11PRLKuban' Krasnodar 5 - 0Volga

Sat27/08/11PRLVolga 3 - 1Terek Grozny

Sun11/09/11PRLAnzhi Makhachkala 2 - 1Volga

Sat17/09/11PRLVolga 1 - 0Spartak Nal'chik

Sat24/09/11PRLCSKA Moskva 3 - 1Volga

Sat01/10/11PRLVolga 0 - 0Amkar Perm'

Sat15/10/11PRLKrylya Sovetov 0 - 0Volga

Sat22/10/11PRLVolga 0 - 2Krasnodar
Recent wins against 11th and 15th ( of 16) came at home. VOlga have failed to score in their last 3, 2 of those matches were 0-0 against current 12th and 14th.


GOAL TRENDS - have failed to score in 8 of 14 away matches.Have conceded 2,5,2,3,0 in last 5 matches, the 0 v 3rd from bottom.


STREAKS - failed to score in last 3 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS -
Zenit - 2 early goals in head to heads away for Zenit as recently as June augurs well for a translation of 1.16 into the requisite 3/4 goals.
Only 1 loss at home for Zenit was against CSKA. Worse case today a draw.
Only 1 loss in last 18 overall, and have scored 4 and 5 against 2 of the bottom 3 ( Volga are 4th from bottom) - again this ties in with 1.16.
Volga - only 2 wins away against 10th and bottom. Have lost away to other top 4 sides, in 2 matches without scoring. Have failed to score in last 3 matches. 2 of those matches 0-0's against 12th and 14th ( in a league of 16) - these 0-0's a concern or are the top Russian sides a distance apart from bottom 6?
Starting point? Well Zenit should not win. Possibility of a win to nil if Volga continue not to score ( they failed to score in 2/3 matches against other top 4 away) .
Speculative? 3-0, 4-0 3-1 correct scores has legs.
0-0 back to lay initially for as long as you dare ( try 20 mins +) incase Volga bring in the defensive attitude of the 2 0-0's in last 3 matches? But what of the 2 goals under 20 minutes for Zenit in the away meeting?
REACTIVE TRADERS - this might be 0-0 at halftime if Volga continue to be tight ( as above). Get stuck in, as Zenit should score. If only 1-0 at halftime, then try over 2.5 goals if value odds are being offered ( as they should)

5pm -
Rapid Bucharest v CS Otopeni - 1.31 home - the Romanian Cup sees Division 1 v Division 2 a
06.05.2009 D1 Rapid Bucuresti 3-0 CS Otopeni
27.10.2008 D1 CS Otopeni 1-2 Rapid Bucuresti
Head to heads not recent. Seems Otopeni have been in decline of late?
545pm -
Dordrecht v AZ Alkmaar - 1.28 away - Dutch Cup. No head to heads, and the way AZ have started the season, they are rightfully favourites in this Division 2 v Division 1 clash. Expect goals if the first team for AZ are playing. Both sides' matches feature goals.
630pm -
Besiktas v Fenerbahce - 2.74 home - the odds suggest a tight match and with so many cup matches, I thought I would try this match out as it is a rare league match.
HEAD TO HEADS
20.02.2011 D1 Besiktas JK 2-4 Fenerbahçe SK
19.09.2010 D1 Fenerbahçe SK 1-1 Besiktas JK
18.04.2010 D1 Fenerbahçe SK 1-0 Besiktas JK
21.11.2009 D1 Besiktas JK 3-0 Fenerbahçe SK

LEAGUE POSITION - 6th v 1st after 7 matches and we may suffer from weak trends after so few matches.

HOME TEAM - Besiktas

RECENT HOME FORM - WWL - wins against current 11th ( 1-0) and bottom side ( 3-1) and loss v current 9th side 0-2 might signal vulnerability re the usual solid at home Besiktas. The only team they beat well was the bottom side in the league. Only other win was a 1-0

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LWWWDLW - 2 losses against 9th, home, and 13th , away.Wins all come against teams outside the current top 7 ( and the relevance of league positions is not as pronounced remember after only 8 matches)

GOAL TRENDS -- only 1 home match overs was against bottom side.Besiktas have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4 matches ( 2 of which were away). Besiktas have scored 1-0-0-1 in their last 4 matches - vulnerable? Trouble in attack?

STREAKS - 3 without a draw at home.

AWAY TEAM - Fenerbahce

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWW against 9th, 10th and 12th so arguably Besiktas, in current 5th, the toughest opponents away to date.HAve scored 3, 1 and 2 away and conceded 1 in 2 matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWDWWWD - draws against 8th and 17th at home. Wins against 2nd and 4th ( at home) and as above for away. I know the wins against 2nd and 4th were at home, but with Besiktas 5th, is this an inkling of an ability to perform against the current better sides?

GOAL TRENDS 2/3 away matches over 2.5 goals. Only 3 matches overs so far this season. Have failed to score in only the last match played ( 0-0) 2 of last 3 matches over 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - 3 match away winning streak. 7 without defeat this season.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Fenerbahce are unbeaten this season and in last 3 head to heads. Although Besiktas have 2 home wins, 1 was against bottom side and the other only 1-0 - hint of vulnerability? All wins have come against teams outside the top 7 ( albeit only 8 matches) so yet really to play any of the main contenders. Besiktas have scored 1-0-0-1 in last 4 matches - blunt in attack? but conceded only once in last 4 matches ( albeit outside top 7 sides)
As to Fenerbahce, they have won their 3 away matches against current 9th , 10th and 12th. Besiktas , in 5th currently, therefore the highest positioned opponents. Fener are unbeaten this season, the only dropped points occuring c/o 2 draws at home. Fener have scored in all bar 1 match this season.
I must add a caveat that working with 7 matches is not ideal, but I see a Besiktas team flattering to decieve at home ( 3 goals were scored v bottom side and only 1 in other 2 matches), and who have only scored 2 in last 4 matches, against an unbeaten Fener side . I could take a chance on Fener, or lay Besiktas.
REactive traders? Get involved if Besiktas score first as Fener will be keen to maintain their unbeaten run. Look at involvement at halftime if 0-0 or if Besiktas are winning. Possible niggle here? Fener have not met any top sides away yet.

645pm -
Luzern v Lausanne - 1.37 home - I am not happy about playing leagues of only 10 sides, as over familiarity can lead to strange results, but in a day of largely cup matches, it's good to give the betting research template and soccerstats a workout.
HEAD TO HEADS
03.08.2011 D1 Lausanne-Sport 0-1 FC Luzern
25.02.2006 D2 FC Luzern 1-1 Lausanne-Sport
One of these 2 are newcomers to the top flight, and the suggestion it is Lausanne.
LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 10th of 10 after 12 matches. A win takes Luzern top.

HOME TEAM - Luzern

RECENT HOME FORM - DDWWWL - loss against 5th, wins against 1st, 2nd and 8th, and draws v 4th and 6th

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDDWWWWWLL - losses against 4th and 5th home and away 0-1 and 2-1

GOAL TRENDS - last 4 home matches have had 4-4-2-3 goals in them. Have failed to score in only 2 matches this season.

STREAKS - no draw in 4 at home and 7 overall. Have scored in last 5 home matches.

AWAY TEAM - Lausanne

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLDLL - no win away yet.6-0 and 1-0 losses against 1st and 3rd hint at a win to nil for Luzern? Have scored 2 away against 5th, 6th and 7th

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLLDLW - win was a 1-0 home win v 6th, the team which beat Lausanne 5-2 away ( hence the unpredictability I mention in 10 team leagues)

GOAL TRENDS - 4 overs, 2 unders away from home.Lausanne have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.Have kept a clean sheet in 2 of last 3 matches, against 6th and 7th and only lost 1-0 v 3rd.

STREAKS - have conceded in last 6 away, no win in last 6 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I cannot see a Lausanne win. Slight concern they conceded only 1 in last 3 matches. Sign of defensive improvement or just meeting teams worse than Luzern.
0-1 head to head also signalled defense at the fore for Lausanne. A win takes Luzern top so requisite motivation. Last 4 home matches had 4-4-2-3 goals in them. More today? No win away for Lausanne yet, lost 1-0 and 6-0 to 1st and 3rd ( win to nil possible for Luzern?)
Both sides congruent re general trend away from draw.

7pm -
FC Copenhagen v Brondby - 2.22 home
- I shortisted this match as I thought it was the league, but it is the danish cup. So it is tough to predict.

7pm -
NEC Nijmegen v Volendam - 1.49 home - potential shock? Division 1 v Division 2, Division 1side on losing run, Division 2 side on a winning run scoring 3-4-3-2-6
745pm - Go Ahead Eagles v Feyenoord - 1.41 away - Division 2 v Division1 -again go with the odds or leave this Dutch cup alone.
745pm - Palermo v Lecce - 1.58 home
HEAD TO HEADS
06.02.2011 D1 US Lecce 2-4 US Palermo
26.09.2010 D1 US Palermo 2-2 US Lecce
15.03.2009 D1 US Palermo 5-2 US Lecce
most recent head to heads have been very un-Italian.
LEAGUE POSITION - 11th v 19th of 20 after 7 matches. Will Lecce's poor start continue away?

HOME TEAM - Palermo

RECENT HOME FORM - WWW scoring 4-3-2 against Inter Milan, Cagliari and Siena. 2-0 win v Siena somewhat flattering with a 90th minute penalty. palermo are yet to play any of the current bottom 4.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WLWDWLL - recent losses against current 5th and 8th , AC Milan and Roma away from home.

GOAL TRENDS - 2 from 3 overs at home.Palermo have failed to score away from home ( including last 2 matches overall)Palermo have kept only 1 clean sheet at home.

STREAKS - 3 match winning streak at home.

AWAY TEAM - Lecce

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLD - lost to Siena ( Palermo beat them 2-0) - beat Bologna ( current 17th) and drew 0-0 with Genoa ( current 7th)

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LWLLLDL - 3-0 up against AC Milan in a match I mentioned previously ( lost 3-4) 4 losses at home against 2nd, 5th, 6th and 12th.

GOAL TRENDS - Have failed to score in 3 of the last 4 matches then suddenly go 3-0 up at home against the mighty AC Milan! 1 of 3 aways over 2.5 goals. 2 clean sheets away is interesting.

STREAKS - 2 away without a win, 5 overall without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Home team has only played 3 matches at home and away team only 3 matches away so of course trends will be extremely inaccurate. What can we glean from this handful of matches? Well, Palermo enjoy playing at home, scoring 4-3-2, but have failed to score away. Lecce have failed to score in 2 away matches and have kept 2 clean sheets in 3 matches. What to make of Lecce's 3 goals ( albeit at home) against AC MIlan?
For me, this looks Palermo's match to lose if they can continue their goalscoring vein at home. They have not played bottom 4 at home yet so difficult to gauge how they will handle strugglers ( there is usually a pattern with some teams against top 1/3rd, middle 1/3rd and strugglers in bottom 1/3rd). History points to goals in head to heads although of course so few games means trends are weak.

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