Tuesday, 4 October 2011

4/10

1230pm - Woodlands Wellington v Etoile - 1.16 away
HEAD TO HEADS
02.07.2011 D1 Etoile FC (S) 3-0 Woodlands Wellington
31.03.2011 D1 Woodlands Wellington 1-2 Etoile FC (S)
05.08.2010 D1 Etoile FC (S) 2-0 Woodlands Wellington
18.05.2010 D1 Woodlands Wellington 0-2 Etoile FC (S)
11.03.2010 D1 Etoile FC (S) 4-0 Woodlands Wellington
07.03.2010 LC Woodlands Wellington 1-3 Etoile FC (S)
Clean sweep from Etoile and expected to win convincingly again.
LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 5th.

HOME TEAM - Woodlands

RECENT HOME FORM - LLLDLLLLLLWLL - draw v Geylang saw a Woodlands 89th minute own goal take the points away!1-0 win v 10th placed Balastier. HAve conceded 4-1-5-5-4-0-5-4 in last 8 matches at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLLWWLLLL - no draw overall recently hints at a home or away win and you know what the odds think!
Wins against 10th and 6th. 2-3 against 6th saw a 90th minute Woodlands win. Woodlands havenot scored in their last 3.

GOAL TRENDS - 13 of last 16 over 2.5 goals. 8 of last 12 matches over 3.5 goals.

STREAKS - No draw in 18 matches overall.No draw in 9 at home.Have lost 14 of last 16 at home.

AWAY TEAM - ETOILE

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLWWWDWWLWDL - only won 1 of last 4, losses against 1st and 6th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WWLWWWWDLLWW - recent losses v Hougang and a whopping 7-2 loss v Albirex( 3rd in the league)

GOAL TRENDS - no real overs/unders bias away for Etoile. Etoile have scored in all of last 9 overall and conceded in last 5.

STREAKS - no strong streaks.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - head to heads point to Etoile. No draw in 9 at home and 12+ overall for Woodlands means home/away win and points to away win. 8 of last 12 matches over 3.5 goals signals goals. Etoile have scored 2-2-2-3 in last 4 head to heads so this might not be a traditional 3/4 goals win as the 1.16 quote would indicate. Can Etoile's recent form of LWDL be dismissed as they obviously face poor opponents. Is this recent loss of form for Etoile likely to provide a shock today? They are playing away.
Angles in? The lack of a recent draw for Woodlands should signal another loss. To increase odds, perhaps look at over 3.5 goals. More value may be had as a reactive trader here - 2 of last 3 head to heads saw Etoile score only 2. This is not in keeping with 1.16 so they might be kept waiting for first goal.

7pm -
Huddersfield v Bradford - 1.41 home - Johnstons Paint trophy and a trophy Arsenal should be targeting in their quest for silverware. League1 v League 2. No point doing any research as we do not know how the management value this trophy
745pm -
Sligo Rovers v Dundalk - 1.24 home
HEAD TO HEADS
07.08.2011 PR Dundalk FC 1-1 Sligo Rovers
30.05.2011 PR Sligo Rovers 1-0 Dundalk FC
15.04.2011 PR Dundalk FC 1-1 Sligo Rovers
09.10.2010 PR Dundalk FC 2-4 Sligo Rovers
31.07.2010 PR Sligo Rovers 1-0 Dundalk FC
21.05.2010 PR Dundalk FC 1-0 Sligo Rovers
apart from one match, this has been a tight affair, far tighter than the 1.24 would have us believe.
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 7th. Sligo have played a match more than 2nd place already so really must win this match to put pressure on the pursuers.It's a very tight top 3.

HOME TEAM - sligo

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWLWWWWWWWDLDWW - have only really dropped points at home against 3rd , 4th and 5th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWWWDDLWDWWWW - only 1 loss recently against 5th placed Bohs 1-2 at home.

GOAL TRENDS - have kept a clean sheet against 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th at home ( playing 7th again today)Last 4 matches over 2.5 goals have seen SLigo score 2-3-3-7.Have scored in 12 of last 13.Have conceded 0-1-1-0-0-1 in last 6 matches so strong recent defensive form.

STREAKS - 4 match winning streak overall.Have scored a goal in each of last 8 matches overall.

AWAY TEAM - DUNDALK

RECENT AWAY FORM - LLLWWWWLDWDDDDLL - poor recent away form sees Dundalk without a win in 6 and only 1 win in last 9.That win was 1-5 against Bray (6th).

RECENT OVERALL FORM -LDWDDDDLDLLL - no win overall in 9.Last 4 draws were score draws.1-0 loss to Sligo and draws v 2nd, 3rd and 4th away might signal Dundalk could surprise?

GOAL TRENDS - 6 of last 7 over 2.5 goals - exception was a 2-0 loss. Have conceded in last 8 overall.Have failed to score in last 2.

STREAKS - 6 away without a win, 9 overall without a win.Have conceded in all of last 8.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - with Dundalk losing 1-0 away to Sligo, and drawing 2nd, 3rd and 4th away, Dundalk cannot be immediately dismissed. They have drawn 4 of their last 6 away. They have lost 4 of their last 5 matches overall.
Sligo have won their last 4 and are unbeaten in their last 6. DLDWW at home in last 5 a sign of vulnerability?
Should be an easy assignment but will pressure tell in this must win. Not a match I can approach with 100% confidence , and laying Sligo at 1.25 is the value punt of Dundalk can conjure up another draw.

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