Friday 21 October 2011

21/10

1230pm - Albirex Niigata v Gombak - 1.33 home
HEAD TO HEADS
04.07.2011 D1 Gombak United 1-5 Albirex Niigata (S)
11.04.2011 D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 0-0 Gombak United
30.08.2010 D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 1-2 Gombak United
07.06.2010 D1 Gombak United 3-1 Albirex Niigata (S)
15.03.2010 D1 Albirex Niigata (S) 0-0 Gombak United
Only in the last match have Albirex become worthy of a 1.33 quote. Gomback won twice in 2010.
LEAGUE POSITION - 4th v 8th 59 points v 40 ( Gomback have played one match less than Albirex)

HOME TEAM - Albirex

RECENT HOME FORM
Wed16/02/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 5 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Sun06/03/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 0 - 2Tampines Rovers

Thu17/03/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 0 - 1Etoile

Wed30/03/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 3 - 1Geylang United

Mon11/04/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 0 - 0Gombak United

Thu28/04/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 6 - 3Armed Forces

Tue10/05/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 5 - 0Woodlands Well…

Sat21/05/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 2 - 1Home United

Tue31/05/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 4 - 2Young Lions

Tue28/06/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 1 - 0Balestier Khalsa

Thu07/07/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 5 - 1Hougang United

Thu04/08/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 1 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Wed05/10/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 6 - 1Geylang United
Excellent winning run and teams who have the winning thread are normally worth siding with if the odds suggest a win is imminent. A couple of 1-0's recently were against 10th and 11th in a league of 12. 5 and 6 goals scored against 6th and 7th and playing 8th today. Ominous if this can be repeated ( and it ties in with what Albirex achieved away from home last head to head)

RECENT FORM OVERALL
Fri24/06/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Albirex Niigata S

Tue28/06/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 1 - 0Balestier Khalsa

Mon04/07/11S.LGombak United 1 - 5Albirex Niigata S

Thu07/07/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 5 - 1Hougang United

Wed13/07/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Albirex Niigata S

Thu04/08/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 1 - 0Tanjong Pagar

Mon08/08/11S.LWoodlands Well… 1 - 5Albirex Niigata S

Wed07/09/11S.LEtoile 2 - 7Albirex Niigata S

Sat10/09/11S.LHome United 0 - 4Albirex Niigata S

Wed14/09/11S.LYoung Lions 1 - 1Albirex Niigata S

Wed05/10/11S.LAlbirex Niigata S 6 - 1Geylang United

Thu13/10/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 1 - 3Albirex Niigata S
Only 1 draw in last 19 matches was agains Young Lions in September. In the last 6 matches, Albirex have scored 5-7-4-1-6-3 - the 1 an anomoly it would seem? Sole losses against 4th , 5th and 6th away from home


GOAL TRENDS - tough without soccerstats but let's see what we can see. 8 of last 10 matches overall over 2.5 goals. Overs/Unders/Overs/Unders/Overs at home recently 2 1-0's in the middle of these kinds of goal totals - 9-5-3-6-6-7.

STREAKS - unbeaten in 10 at home. 8 match home winning run. Unbeaten in 7 overall. 5 of last 6 matches over 3.5 goals,

AWAY TEAM - GOMBACK

RECENT AWAY FORM
Fri29/04/11S.LWoodlands Well… 0 - 1Gombak United

Fri06/05/11S.LTampines Rovers 1 - 1Gombak United

Wed18/05/11S.LEtoile 2 - 0Gombak United

Tue31/05/11S.LGeylang United 1 - 0Gombak United

Sat25/06/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Gombak United

Thu30/06/11S.LHougang United 3 - 2Gombak United

Sat09/07/11S.LTanjong Pagar 0 - 0Gombak United

Fri05/08/11S.LHome United 2 - 1Gombak United

Fri09/09/11S.LYoung Lions 0 - 1Gombak United

Thu29/09/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 0 - 2Gombak United
General inconsistencies away. Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of last 4 away matches against 9th, 10th and 11th in a league of 12. So they can cope against the bottom sides away. Losses against 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, 7th and remember they are playing 4th today.


RECENT OVERALL FORM
Sat25/06/11S.LArmed Forces 2 - 1Gombak United

Thu30/06/11S.LHougang United 3 - 2Gombak United

Mon04/07/11S.LGombak United 1 - 5Albirex Niigata S

Sat09/07/11S.LTanjong Pagar 0 - 0Gombak United

Fri05/08/11S.LHome United 2 - 1Gombak United

Fri12/08/11S.LGombak United 3 - 0Woodlands Well…

Fri09/09/11S.LYoung Lions 0 - 1Gombak United

Tue13/09/11S.LGombak United 2 - 0Geylang United

Thu29/09/11S.LBalestier Khalsa 0 - 2Gombak United

Thu13/10/11S.LGombak United 3 - 1Hougang United
5 without a win and then suddenly 5 with a win, including 5 clean sheets . These wins against 12th, 9th, 6th, 10th, 7th. So none of the top 5. But you cannot dismiss teams on winning runs, as they serve to reinforce a belief that teams can win. Clean sheets against 3 of the bottom 4.

GOAL TRENDS - 3 of last 4 matches overall under 2.5 goals because of 2 2-0 scorelines.3 of last 4 away under 2.5 goals.

STREAKS - only 2 wins in last 9 away and they came in last 2 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - both sides are on winning runs at present, and as I said above, winning runs add belief and reinforce the fact that teams can win. ALbirex set alight away in July , scoring 5, and that ties in with the majority of their recent performances . They could conceivably let loose. Have scored 4-5-6 in 3 of last 5 wins but the other 2 were 1-0 wins ( and note that Gomback have kept 3 clean sheets in 4 matches ) GOal trends are incongruous. Albirex have 8 of last 10 overs but Gomback have no strong goal trends.
This is all about how Albirex feel. They have been spanking teams of late, but them struggling to 1-0's against bottom 3 sides. Gomback are on a recent winning run, but not against top 5. If GOmback score first, I would certainly get involved. Difficult to read with that recent Gomback winning run!

4pm -
Levski Sofia v Kaliakra - 1.07 home
19.03.2011 D1 Kaliakra 0-3 W.O. Levski Sofia
22.08.2010 D1 Levski Sofia 3-0 Kaliakra
I am not sure what W.O. means - -scoreline in keeping with odds - win to nil.
Only 1 draw in last 24 matches for these 2 overall ( last 12 matches each).
5th v 15th of 16 after 9 matches.
5 match home winning run for Levski sees 4 clean sheets.
7 losses, 1 draw, 1 win in 9 this season for Kaliakra.
Have failed to score in 3 of last 4 league matches.
Have lost last 5 away matches - 4 without scoring.
I am not going to heavily into this match as it is likely to be illiquid, but we have a team scoring and keeping clean sheets v a team unable to score away - logic dictates a comfortable win to nil. 1.07 suggests, 3/4 minimum.
4pm - Lucko v Hajduk Split - 1.41 away
7pm -
Fortuna Dusseldorf v H Rostock - -1.46 home
HEAD TO HEADS
09.05.2010 D2 Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Hansa Rostock
19.12.2009 D2 Hansa Rostock 2-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf
Inconclusive but the last head to head reflects the current odds of 1.46 for the home side.
LEAGUE POSITION 3rd v 15th

HOME TEAM - Dusseldorf

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWWW - pretty conclusive. 2-4-3-4-4 scored. Why only 1.46 then today. Seems a big price for that kind of home form. Playing 15th today and have beaten current 13th 16th and 17th ( scoring 4 against 16th and 17th - again I ask why the odds for Dusseldorf are not shorter?)

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WDWDWDWWWDW - unbeaten at home. All draws away , 3 were 1-1 against 2nd , 5th and 6th.

GOAL TRENDS - all bar one match over 2.5 goals at home. The exception a 2-0 win was an unsuccessful over 2.5 goals trade is the 2nd goal was scored in the 88th minute. 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. 5-4-6-6 the total goals scored in last 4 home matches.

STREAKS - 4 match winning streak at home. 11 matches without defeat. Have conceded in all of last 4 home matches ( 5 overall) which I suppose is good news for over 2.5 goals.

AWAY TEAM - Hansa Rostock.

RECENT AWAY FORM - DDLLL - loss 4-1 against 2nd in the league ties in with head to heads and recent Dusseldorf scorelines ( Duss are 3rd) 4 of the away matches have been played agaisnt bottom 9 .

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LDDDDLDLDLW - 4 0-0's amongst those draws, 2 1-1's as well. Sole win came last match against current 10th at was a home win for Rostock.

GOAL TRENDS - only 2 of the 5 away matches over 2.5 goals, losses to 2nd and 17th - v contrasting! 8 of last 10 matches under 2.5 goals down largely to those draws, and remember 4 of them were 0-0.

STREAKS - 5 without a win away from home. One one win this season. Current losing streak of 3 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - I don't know if I am missing some key information ( injuries?) but Dusseldorf, for me, deserve to be far shorter than the current 1.5 on Betfair. The form says so. It looks like it could be another 3/4 goal win. Just a niggle with those odds!

7pm -
Zwolle v Dordrecht - 1.36 home
HEAD TO HEADS
11.03.2011 D2 FC Zwolle 0-0 FC Dordrecht
03.09.2010 D2 FC Dordrecht 1-2 FC Zwolle
26.03.2010 D2 FC Dordrecht 0-3 FC Zwolle
24.08.2009 D2 FC Zwolle 3-5 FC Dordrecht
Last 2 head to heads have been getting progressively tighter
LEAGUE POSITION - 1st v 10th after 9 matches

HOME TEAM - Zwolle

RECENT HOME FORM - WWWW - scoring 2-2-3-7.Wins against 5th, 6th, 12th, 13th

RECENT FORM OVERALL -DWWWLWDWW - sole loss against 8th away,

GOAL TRENDS - 8/9 matches over 2.5 goals. The exception was a 2-0. Zwolle have only failed to score 2 goals in 1 match.

STREAKS - 4 match home winning streak.Have scored 2 goals in 8/9 matches. Last 5 matches over 2.5 goals.

AWAY TEAM - Dordrecht

RECENT AWAY FORM - DLDL - they have failed to score in their last 3 matches away.Heavy losses against 4th and 12th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - DDWLDWDLW - -inconsistency is the death knell of the trader. All positive results have come at home.

GOAL TRENDS - 6 of last 7 matches over 2.5 goals. Have kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches. Have failed to score in 2 of the last 3 matches.

STREAKS - no win in 4 away and have failed to score in 3 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Dordrecht are inconsistent and that word and trading are not happy bedfellows. Congruency easily on over 2.5 goals at present and Zwolle have a happy knack of scoring 2 goals this term. This knowledge that Zwolle are consistently scoring 2 can be put to use for in play bettors. Was the 0-0 last head to head anomolous or a warning?

715pm -
Slovan Liberec v Banik Ostrava - 1.38 home
730pm -
Augsburg v W Bremen - 2.04 away - always worth including as Werder Bremen are usually solid over 2.5 goals material. So whilst the 2.04 quote for the favourite doesn't normally interest me, I will try to focus on goal trends.

HEAD TO HEADS -
23.03.2010 Cup Werder Bremen 2-0 FC Augsburg

LEAGUE POSITION - 16th v 5th after 9 matches.

HOME TEAM - Augsburg

RECENT HOME FORM - DLLD - last draw was a 0-0.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - DDLLLDDLW - sole win came in last match a 1-0 away to Mainz (15th in the league) Have lost at home to 8th and 9th and drew 0-0 with 7th and playing 5th today.

GOAL TRENDS - only 4 matches so not much to go on.

STREAKS - 4 at home without a win.

AWAY TEAM Werder Bremen

RECENT AWAY FORM - LWDL - losses against 7th and 8th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - WLWWWDWLL - most recent losses against 3rd and 7th. Wins at home v 14th 17th and 18th ( playing 16th away)

GOAL TRENDS - 4 2 goal matches have scuppered the official over 2.5 goals count for Werder.Have scored 7 goals in the last 15 minutes of matches.

STREAKS - have conceded in last 4 away matches. Have scored in last 3 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - so much for my idea re:- Werder Bremen and over 2.5 goals. A few 2-0's and 7 late goals don't make for over 2.5 goals trades. Normally I would expect Werder to beat Augsburg, but that is gut reaction and not form.

745pm -
Cork City v Longford - 1.22 home
745pm -
Galway Utd v Bray - 1.28 away - you know the drill, the weekly let's back the opponents of Galway.
HEAD TO HEADS
12.08.2011 PR Bray Wanderers 4-0 Galway United
10.06.2011 PR Galway United 0-3 Bray Wanderers
22.04.2011 PR Bray Wanderers 2-0 Galway United
02.11.2010 PRPO Galway United 1-0 Bray Wanderers
10.09.2010 PR Bray Wanderers 4-0 Galway United
05.07.2010 PR Galway United 2-2 Bray Wanderers
Galway only scored in a play off in November. 4 of last 5 matches without scoring .0-3 win in June but tough in 2 previous meetings at Galway.
LEAGUE POSITION - 10th v 6th

HOME TEAM - Galway

RECENT HOME FORM - LLLLLLLLLLLLDLL - draw recently against Dundalk 2-2.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLDLLLLL - you get the idea!!

GOAL TRENDS - last 10 over 2.5 goals. Have actually scored in 6 of last 8 after a long run without scoring. This could help over 2.5 goals. 70% overs at home, conceding 2.7 and scoring 0.58 on average.

STREAKS - 17 at home without a win. Have conceded in all of last 15 at home.Current losing streak of 5. 30 matches without a win. Have conceded in all of those 30 matches.

AWAY TEAM - Bray

RECENT AWAY FORM - WWLWDLLLDW - inconsistent away from home and we are to trust them at 1.28 - right! But a look at the challenge table and Bray have beaten the bottom 3 sides 1-2, 1-4, 0-3 this season away from home.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLWDLLLWLDLW - again inconsistent -recent wins against 8th and 9th - faith that BRay have the edge over the poor bottom 3 but then are vulnerable against the rest?

GOAL TRENDS - 14 of last 15 matches over 2.5 goals.All 6 matches played against bottom 3 home and away over 2.5 goals.Have conceded in 15 of last 17 matches.

STREAKS - have conceded in the last 8 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Bray are one of those sides traders hate - inconsistent. Could easily win as they did away at Galway, but then again could throw in a shocker. Over 2.5 goals could have legs here if we trust Bray. Both sides regular conceders. Can we trust Bray to win away at a GAlway side finding the net of late?

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