3/10

2pm - Slavia Sofia v Kaliakra - 1.35 home

27.02.2011	D1	Kaliakra	0-1	Slavia Sofia
31.07.2010	D1	Slavia Sofia	0-1	Kaliakra

As with the Barca game yesterday, the importance of looking at head to heads cannot be underestimated. And the head to heads here do not reflect the 1.35 quote.
9th v 14th after 7 matches
3-2 win, 0-2 loss, 2-1 win at home this season. Loss was against 2nd in the league.
LWDLLWW so far this season belies inconsistency.They fail to score in 2 matches then score 2 and 3 in the next 2 matches.
1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 1-0 losses away so far this season kind of fit in with the head to heads. Tight generally. They have failed to score in 3 aways this season.
LLLLWLD overall this season sees a win over 15th and draw against bottom. Sums up where Kaliakra are it seems if they can only get positive results against the worst teams so far in the league.
Not a match that particularly interests me, although a case could be made for laying Slavia Sofia early doors if Kaliakra can keep the match tight. They are unlikely to score though which may make this lay a little less safe. Better to back 0-0 initially in the hope Kaliakra prove difficult to beat? They will probably succumb and a 1-0, 2-1, 2-0 correct score might be a goer. 7 matches though in a Bulgarian league tells you all you need to know about the confidence in my analaysis here.
430pm - FC Inter v RoPS - 1.16 home - in a quiet day, always worth investigating Finnish top flight and sub 1.2 shots. As with Twente yesterday, it seems they always manage to conjure up goals, although 2-2 yesterday not quite the scoreline I had envisioned.

1.08.2011	D1	Inter Turku	3-0	RoPS Rovaniemi
22.05.2011	D1	RoPS Rovaniemi	3-4	Inter Turku
01.08.2009	D1	Inter Turku	4-0	RoPS Rovaniemi
08.07.2009	Cup	Inter Turku	2-0	RoPS Rovaniemi
07.05.2009	D1	RoPS Rovaniemi	0-2	Inter Turku
18.02.2009	LC	RoPS Rovaniemi	0-3	Inter Turku

3 clean sheets out of 4 for Inter is what you would expect from a 1.16 shot. The 3-4 away win has a touch of the Twente's about it and may signal a neutral goals bet?
HEAD TO HEADS - as above

LEAGUE POSITION - 2nd v 12th of 12. HJK Helsinki are 1st on 70 points. Inter Turko 2nd on 49 points. They cannot win the league but I suppose they could consolidate 2nd.ROPS are 10 points adrift at the bottom and it seems a lost cause for them

HOME TEAM - INTER TURKO

RECENT HOME FORM - WDWWWWDWWWWDDD - no defeat at home. 3 matches drawn a slight concern but were against 4th, 5th and 1st.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - WWLWDLLDDWD - inconsistent form overall sees plenty of dropped points. Recent losses against 3rd and 6th were away.

GOAL TRENDS - 14 of last 15 matches over 1.5 goals. 2.5 goals somewhat scuppered by a number of 2-0's. A recent run of 6 clean sheets in 8 matches ended last 2 matches . Won 9, drawn 5 with 7 clean sheets at home. Averaging 2.64 scored and 0.86 conceded . Always good to see sub 1 in the goal averages.

STREAKS - 18 games at home without a loss. 3 home games drawn in a row.

AWAY TEAM ROPS - should be christened ROPEY

RECENT AWAY FORM - 22 losses from last 24 matches away from home and ROPEY are proving very ROPEY on the road.They have conceded 2-5-8-3-2-3-2-5-5-5 in their most recent away matches and of course we know that sub 1.20 equals goals and that should be backed up by the recent concession of 5 goals on 3 occasions.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLDLLDLW - wow! A win recently 2-1 at home v MYPA courtesy of 2 very late goals. It seems, with their form, they were literally playing My Pa!

GOAL TRENDS - recent away matches have totalled 2-6-10-3-2-3-3-5-7-7 goals. 8 of last 11 matches overall over 2.5 goals. 1 win, 11 losses, 1 draw, 1 clean sheet. 1.15 scored 3.38 conceded away from home on average.

STREAKS - 10 away games lost in a row

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - Twente somewhat bucked the trend as regards recent sub 1.20 teams dominating ( as did United I suppose v Norwich). Here we have head to heads pointing at possible clean sheet and dominance of Inter Turko. We have an away side conceding 5 in their last 3 ( and possibly may react with a better defensive display as is often the case after defensive embarrassments) This team those have lost 22 of last 24 away matches. How much will that last win at home 2-1 boost their confidence? If you are slightly concerned they neutral bet the match with overs.
This does look straightforward though and a typical sub 1.2 match?

6pm - Aalesunds v Start - 1.6 home - this is Norwegian League and on soccerstats and on a quiet day worth investigation.
HEAD TO HEADS

22.09.2011	Cup	Aalesund FK	1-0	IK Start
08.05.2011	D1	IK Start	2-3	Aalesund FK
18.07.2010	D1	IK Start	1-0	Aalesund FK
03.05.2010	D1	Aalesund FK	2-0	IK Start
18.10.2009	D1	IK Start	0-1	Aalesund FK
19.04.2009	D1	Aalesund FK	1-1	IK Start

Aalesunds do not seem to lose at home in head to heads although the matches really are tight 1-1 2-0 1-0( Cup).. DWWLWW for Aalesund in head to heads. All matches bar 1 have seen a team win by more than 1 goal.

LEAGUE POSITION - 12th v 15th and it seems Aalesund's favouratism is based on home advantage and the poor season Start are having.Aalesund have some 2 games in hand of a lot of teams and winning those 2 matches will see them catapult to 7th in the league possibly. Start are 8 points adrift of 3rd bottom and need wins soon.

HOME TEAM -AALESUNDS

RECENT HOME FORM - LWWWWLWLLWW - no draws at home this season.Losses against 1st, 2nd, 6th and 13th.Have beaten 14th and 16th at home without conceding and Start are 15th.

RECENT FORM OVERALL - LDWLLLLDLDWLW - 2 wins in last 3 against 3rd and bottom.

GOAL TRENDS - Only 3 of last 12 matches over 2.5 goals because 6 matches finished 1-0 - 36.4% overs at home a low %.Have kept a clean sheet in 3 of the last 4 matches. Have failed to score in 5 of the last 9.

STREAKS - 11 at home without a draw. 2 match winning streak at home.No goal conceded in last 2 at home.

AWAY TEAM - START

RECENT AWAY FORM - WLLLLLLLLLLL - like Aalesund at home, no draw for Start away. What chance lay the draw today? Start have conceded 2 goals against 11th 14th and 16th ( the lowest teams they have played) - Aalesund are 12th.

RECENT OVERALL FORM - LLLDLLLLLWLLW - recent wins have come at home against 11th and 16th ( only 1-0 against bottom side) -again note the sparcity of draws.

GOAL TRENDS - 58.3% overs away from home. 7 of last 9 matches over 2.5 goals. 5 of last 6 away matches over 2.5 goals with the exception a 2-0.

STREAKS - 11 match losing streak away and have naturally conceded a goal in those 11.No draw in 12 away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS - no draw at home for home side Aalesund and away for away side Start naturally tells us to lay the draw. Sequences like this will end eventually but there is congruency between these 2 sides which lends confidence. There is no congruency with the goals trends between these 2 teams at home and away.