What can I say - I do hours of research - every bet comes in apart from the one I chose.
From the shortlist, Werder Bremen win, score over 1.5 goals, Ambrogina places,Porto wins, Federer wins 2-0, Davydenko wins, Hankey wins and I go and chose the wrong selection as the one a day. Barca equalised 1-1 but went 2-1 down to a penalty a moment later - they scored again, then that was disallowed.
Bad decision making again. A 2 legged affair does not necessitate a win!
The success of one a day betting comes down to making that final decision having gathered together a number of very strong bets.
What is missing is interaction. With so long until the bet yesterday, and so many seemingly rock solid alternatives, it is a pity yesterday that I could not say to you " hang on, this opponent of Ted Hankey's is looking very dodgy - get on Ted as your one a day" or " Werder Bremen's side includes Pizarro today - looks like they mean business in this friendly"
I do not have the flexibility or facility to change my mind as the day unfolds once a decision has been made and written in stone, and I have to sit and suffer watching all the bets bar the inevitable choice going on to win.
So using www.cliveoneaday.com, the blog, I will be operating a live chat facility on a trial basis , which will only go into affect 15 minutes before a shortlisted bet is likely to take place, ONLY WHEN I HAVE SELECTED A ONE A DAY BET WHICH IS EITHER IN A LATE RACE OR A LATE KICK OFF AND THE SHORTLIST PRODUCES A NUMBER OF EARLIER POSSIBLE ALTERNATIVES
So, today, with my choice at 145pm, I will not be using the live chat.
It would have worked yesterday as the Southwell track was not that leaden for the horses ,so we could have place backed Ambrogina for instance and nailed the one a day . NOTE, this is provisional on a consistent broadband feed - I am working from a wireless feed at present which is intermittent.
What is eluding us so far is a long winning sequence which was characteristic of last year. It will come as the weather improves and my decision making improves.
On to today
HORSE RACING
550 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Soccerjackpot, 2/1 Red Somerset, 7/1 Geezers Colours, River Kirov, 8/1 Indian Skipper, 33/1 Kings Ace.
| DIOMED VERDICT: This trip is as sharp as Red Somerset wants and with a canny front-running ride SOCCERJACKPOT should be good enough on these terms. |
Soccerjackpot is now odds on in a race where only 3 are 11/1 or under. But this is a claimer and only 2 places
FOOTBALL
1130am Singapore v Iran 1.37 Iran to win
6-0 head to heads last time but there may be changes in the Iranian personnel since then
1230 - Iraklis v Panthrakikos - 1.36 3rd from bottom side are heavy odds on against bottom side.HAve lost , drawn 2 and won 2 at home
Panthrakikos have lost all matches bar 2 draws - have lost all away from home and been beaten at home by Iralkis 2-1
2pm - APOEL v Ethnikos - 1.23 - no head to heads since 2002 - this is the Cypriot FA Cup ,so team news key
245pm - Panathanaikos v Ergotelis 1.28 -won all home games bar one draw - only loss all season has come against Olympiakos which I suppose is expected.Have already beaten Ergotelis at their ground 3-0.
Ergotelis have lost 2-1 away to Olympiakos.
3pm Bahrain v Hong kong - 1.13
From the AFC website
""We haven't secured our place in the finals yet," warned Macala.
"But a point against Hong Kong will be enough for us to virtually seal our place in the finals with two matches to go.
"However, our main aim is to continue our good performances in the qualifiers because we want to win and maintain our winning streak. It will be great to register our fourth consecutive win in as many games.
"I'm happy that we will have some foreign-based players in the squad who will give us a boost in the game. The clubs of the players were really helpful and they gave us the players to prepare for the game.
"We have prepared well for the match and I think that we have got the necessary motivation to have a good performance and win the game against Hong Kong."
Hong Kong have scored just once and conceded 14 in four straight defeats to end their qualification hopes, but are determined to continue their education against Bahrain, who again missed out on a place at the World Cup finals in the play-offs."
Normally, as you know, when a team needs a draw, they invariably get a draw, but it looks as if this Bahrain team is motivated enough to continue winning ,especially against such a poor side as Hong Kong 3-1 head to heads in Hong Kong. Home advantage for Bahrain
3pm - UAE v Malaysia - 1.11
A case of a team needing 3 points against a team who have no hope of qualification and who will be fielding youngsters
While UAE will be looking to seal their place in the finals, Malaysia coach K.Rajagobal has decided to give some younger players a chance to gain experience. Malaysia's hopes of qualifying have all but ended with them needing at least a 5-0 win to have a chance of usurping UAE.
"We have (almost) no chance of qualifying to the finals but the players still have a duty to perform and I want each player to give 100% effort," said the 53-year-old, whose side impressed with a 4-1 win over Syria recently.
"Whatever result we get, we must not forget that this team is inexperienced and there are a lot of young faces.
"However, playing against UAE, who are a strong and experienced team, will be a good experience for the players who don't usually have a chance to play a quality side in a competitive fixture"
5-0 head to heads for UAE v Malaysia augur well for the home side
745pm Arsenal v Bolton 1.23 - Premiership match - over 2.5 goals instantly springs to mind with the Arsenal at home, making over 1.5 goals a safer bet
89% of Arsenal's home games have been over 2.5 goals. Their only loss at Chelsea and wins elsewhere.
Bolton have only played one of the top 4 away and lost 2-1.
62% of their away games have been over 2.5 goals.
1.22 for over 1.5 goals is the same as 1.23 match odds for Arsenal, and includes both sides working or you.
TENNIS
QATAR OPEN
Davydenko v Chiudinelli 1.16
Davydenko won eaily enough yesterday at slightly shorter odds and the world number 6 is expected to continue past the 2nd round
Federer v Korolev - 1.17 2-0 sets
Same price yesterday and absolutely devastating and in very good nick, the World Number 1 should not drop a set ( tradeable too if he wins the first set)
SHORTLIST
FOOTBALL
245pm - Panathanaikos v Ergotelis - 1.23
POSITIVES - unbeaten at home all season. Only one loss all season. Have already beaten Ergotelis away 3-0 this season. HAve lost 3-0 , 2-0 and 2-1 to top 3 sides this season ( 2 of those were at Ergotelis home ground)
3pm - Bahrain v Hong Kong - Hong Kong are dire and Bahrain's price has now dropped to 1.1 from 1.13 earlier.
Bahrain only need a draw which makes this game a little niggly but they have home advantage and strong head to heads
3pm UAE v Malaysia 1.12
POSITIVES - UAE need 3 points, have home advantage and are playing a team who cannot qualify for the Asian Cup.5-0 head to heads in Malaysia signal a good performance in the UAE.
A weakened Malaysian team will line up too.
Over 2.5 goals would have interested here but Betfair's market is lacking liquidity.The halftime/fulltime UAE/UAE price is 1.28 but again the market is very illiquid. This price is also available at LAdbrokes online though .
745pm Arsenal v Bolton. 1.23 is available in the match odds for Arsenal and for over 1.5 goals which includes both sides.
TENNIS
Qatar Open
Federer to beat Korolev 2-0 sets is 1.17 at Betfair and available at 1.15 for £2000+ ( bear in mind that 2-0 sets at Bet365 is 1.08 and this is a relatively big price)
Federer played yesterday and was imperious, and priced about the same or slightly bigger yesterday. This should mean that he replicates yesterday's easy 2 set victory, all things being equal
In head to heads, Federer has won all 5 sets played by a minimum of 6-3 , 2 sets were 6-2 , one set was 6-1 and 2 sets were 6-3
Coincidentally, this is the kind of set scores that Federer dealt out to Rochus yesterday.
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATOR
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Using Betfair multiples, this accumulator looks to be strong, but with accumulators like these, featuring 2 in play football matches, I would look to hedge my stake if, say, Panathanaikos scored 1st and their odds reduced considerably, the same with Arsenal. This will lose some profits but ensure that the stake for the multiple is covered.eg if Panathanaikos score first, their odds of 1.23 will shorten significantly to around 1.12. By laying Panathanaikos at 1.12 for £100, we cover the multiple stake and lose £12 profit from the potential win.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Both Bahrain and UAE look very strong and a double on these 2 on Betfair multiples increases the odds to 1.18
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Independently, though, it would seem that UAE have the requisite motivation against a 2nd string Malaysian side to really nail the win here. THere is currently around £1400 available between 1.1 and 1.12 for UAE
745pm Arsenal v Bolton over 1.5 goals at 1.22 is about the same as backing Arsenal at 1.23 in the Match odds market. Importantly this covers both sides and is tradeable as an option
Qatar Open
Federer to beat Korolev 2-0 sets is available for s small amount at 1.17 but larger amounts (up to £6K) at 1.15 which is extremely competitive when compared to the bookies 1.08
I feel that the Federer 2-0 set bet and the double with Bahrain and UAE are both strong today and it is difficult deciding between these bets.
Federer relies on one outcome. The double ,obviously, relies on 2 outcomes. Bahrain only need to draw, so there is always that very slight niggle.
As a speculative bet, I can see no weaknesses in the Bahrain, UAE, Panathanaikos, Arsenal 4 timer ( bar of course the Bahrain niggle above) but would only approach this with hedging in mind, and that over complicates matters.
It would look to be Federer today for me, having watched him yesterday.
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