Not ideal as I cannot get team news.To make better decisions in cup games, we would really need team news to be ultra confident. I am merely going by the odds of 1.18 as being a strong reflection of the kind of scorelines from 1.18 shots Sunderland and Spurs yesterday( 3-0 and 4-0). I hope this pays off.
In the absence of any real alternatives from the heavy ground jumps, this looks the best bet of the day and has the profile of a bet where it will be a shock should Watford win.
Remember, as always, with soccer, that we have the ability to trade our bets on Betfair. As I have said before, it is not a prerequisite, but is an option that is is suggested you avail yourselves of using Betfair ,especially if able to view the game live
ANALYSIS AND COMMENT
Easy wins for Spurs and Sunderland reflected in the odds. In fact there was barely a shock yesterday. The horse racing was another casualty of frost but the one mention in the 1225 Lingfield came 2nd so it enhances confidence in my price gapper system with regards to low class handicaps.
Barcelona scored 1st YET AGAIN allowing a great trade for those interested ( and I hope you DID trade as the final result was 1-1)
In case of weather affected racing again today, there seems to be some good back up bets in the football.
1pm Man Utd v Leeds United 1.25
An intriguing match this one as Leeds United are dominating their league. Having seen them play twice against Kettering they certainly pose a goal threat.
Team news vital for Man United
Will be from (?)
Manchester United (from): Kuszczak, Foster, Neville, Rafael, De Laet, Vidic, Brown, Evra, Fabio, Valencia, Park, Carrick, Fletcher, Scholes, Anderson, Gibson, Giggs, Obertan, Rooney, Berbatov, Owen, Welbeck, Tosic.
1.25 shows who the market favours but I feel this is a tad short and this game, for me, is better approached with betting in running, or with a bet which involves both sides such as a goals bet.
3pm Chelsea v Watford - 1.18
Exactly the same profile as Sunderland and Spurs. All sides play at home. All sides 1.18.-scorelines 3-0 and 4-0
This is the scoreline we should expect today if a strong Chelsea side take to the field. Missing a lot of the African Cup of Nations players, including red hot Drogba and able deputy Saloman Kalou -the latter who is excellent at sniffing out goals in tight matches.
This leaves a lot on the shoulders of Anelka, so Fat Frank will have to put a shift in, and hopefully Mr Sturridge can play well.
Chelsea unbeaten at home and would have a 100% record bar a 3-3 draw with Everton.
Watford are 13th in the Championship - they have lost away to West Brom and Newcastle 2-0 and 5-0 -these 2 are dominating the Championship and 2 good teams to guage likely scorelines versus Premiership outfits
Like yesterday it is difficult to sniff out team news so early.
3pm Dundee v Airdrie United 1.29 - Scottish 1st division may be affected by weather so note of caution there.
Home team Dundee have a home record of 8-2-0 (W-D-L) for their 10 home games this season,
Away team Airdrie have an away record of 0-2-8 (W-D-L) for their 10 away games this season
What contrasting fortunes!!
Dundee generally win but seem to concede 1 goal at home. A goals bet here then to involve both sides?
615pm Benfica v Nacional 1.35 home side.
Another Portugeuse Cup game saw Porto win away at similar odds.
I keep saying it but it's all down to team choice whether the odds for Benfica are justified or not.
2nd v 4th in the league.Benfica beat Nacional 6-1 in October at home. The thing about this type of drubbing is that Nacional will not want a repeat - PARK THE BUS??
Nacional have been well beaten in the league against the 2 of the top 3 they have played.
Of course this is the Cup and not a league game.
Home odds do look a little skinny to me bearing in mind this is the 4th in the league side ( and they must be there for a reason - i.e. take out the obvious -Porto , Benfica , Braga and Nacional are the next best - above Sporting Lisbon!!)
8pm Osasuna v Real Madrid 1.51 away side
13th against 2nd, have been beaten at home by 3rd, 4th and 5th sides and drew 1-1 with Barca.
probability surely then that 2nd side in the league will win rather than draw.
Take into account Barca's draw 1-1 with Villareal yesterday and this will give Real Madrid added incentive to get something out of tonight's game. 1.51 away relays the fact that a win is expected.
Real have only lost twice , to Sevilla and Barcelona ( the latter 1-0)
Expectation for a couple of goals from Real tonight if replicating their performances against other sides near Osasuna in the league.
1.25 over 1.5 goals is good odds given Real managed 13 goals in their final 3 2009 games, and they have had a good rest where Barcelona have been travelling the world playing silly friendlies in the heat of Dubai as well as some silly World Club fixtures.
Motivation for Real tonight for sure.
HORSE RACING
Plumpton and Kempton remains today. Plumpton sees heavy ground and this type of ground is not really conducive to betting. I will, though, take a look through the card
1250 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ranjobaie, 7/2 Notus De La Tour, 8/1 Firedog, 12/1 Forest Rhythm, 14/1 Beau Fighter, Sail And Return, 16/1 Blue Tango, 20/1 King Richard, 25/1 Sahara Sunshine, 28/1 Beau Lake, Captain Willoughby, 33/1 Bridge Of Fermoy, 40/1 The Saucy Snipe,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Easy Auteuil winner Notus De La Tour is an intriguing contender on his debut for David Pipe but RANJOBAIE is taken to gain compensation for his last-flight fall at Leicester. |
An interesting start to the day. Ranjobaie ran on heavy ground last time ( and fell, AT THE FINAL FENCE WHEN CLEAR) and is now 2/5 to gain compensation for the McCoy/Henderson combo which has proven to be a decent partnership.
I have mentioned it before, that when the betting forecast price is considerably shorter in the live betting market, then we have a potential big gamble.
There are only 2 horses under 14/1 and only 3 horses under 25/1 meaning the betting market sees this as a race full of dead wood
As we saw with Ranjobaie's last run, the spectre of a fall is always with us over the jumps, and even more gauling if at a final fence!!
1.49 to win and 1.1 to place.
This is one of those where ,I suppose, you have the option of backing the horse in the win only market at 1.49 and placing a lay bet, using the keep bets facility, at around 1.20 for the stake you backed the selection at , or a little higher to create a green screen. This assumes that Ranjobaie will be competitive throughout.
1.1 for the place , or a horse who fell last time, in heavy ground again today is shorter than Chelsea to beat Watford at home, and I know which one I'd prefer!!
150 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fabulous Fred, 5/2 Stoney´s Treasure, 5/1 Flanagan, 8/1 Quiet Bob, Rey Nacarado, 10/1 The Red Laird, 50/1 Alteranthela, Pete The Feat, 66/1 Abbey Dore, Barak O´Barma, 100/1 Quick Draw.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FABULOUS FRED sets a fair standard for some interesting newcomers to aim at. |
Why is 50/1 in the betting forecast Pete the Feat currently 14/1 in the live betting? Hint of stable confidence?
DARTS
PDC WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP 2009/2010
FINAL 810pm
Phil Taylor v Simon Whitlock 1.14 Taylor
2 days ago I say Phil Taylor priced at 1.22 against Lewis and I jumped on it ( alas I did not know these kinds of prices were being offered about 14 time world champion when I was writing the corresponding say's blog)
Phil Taylor won with a devastating display
The Wizard came from 4-2 down yesterday to win his semi final against Barney 6-5. It is that 4-2 that interests me - it makes the Wizard vulnerable surely against someone who is far far more consistent than Barney .
The 1.14 ,then, for a player usually priced at 1.04 ( and has been as low as 1.01!!!) is something worth mentioning.
This game is in running and so affords a great trading opportunity to nick a few ticks if Taylor really goes for it ( and by the same token will afford a great opportunity for enhanced betting if the Wizard conjures some magic and takes a lead , as Taylor's price is likely to rise )
Remember this is a Final so I would suspect that we can get better odds in running for Taylor, but you just never know with him
With 1st to 7 sets, this allows plenty of time for potential odds fluctuations
SHORTLIST
IDEALLY , TEAM NEWS IS REQUIRED TODAY FOR MAN UTD AND CHELSEA
As things stand my shortlist would include the following
Chelsea at 1.18 v Watford. This seems a little more straightforward than a Leeds visit to Old Trafford although I suspect the result may go the way of the odds , I cannot discount an above par performance from Leeds.
It would seem now with all the money in the Premiership that the romantic notion of a giant killing ( IF THE PREMIERSHIP SIDE PLAY THEIR STRONGEST LINE UPS) is just that, a romantic notion and not a realistic one.
Who will ship in with the goals in the absence of Kalou and Drogba, both of whom I admire?
Really, the 1.18 odds should mirror the scorelines of the 1.18 odds yesterday ( 3-0 and 4-0)
Time constraints mean that I cannot wait for team news, and really, I would much prefer to say yes or no with team news to hand. From a Chelsea fan wesbite, here is an estimate of the likely team
Therefore we`ll go for a starting eleven of:-
Cech, Ivanovic, Terry, Carvalho, A.Cole, Ballack, Lampard, J.Cole, Malouda, Sturridge, Anelka (or Borini)
I also would ideally want to know whether Anelka is fit to play or not
For Watford, Heigur Helgusson does not play, which is a good thing I suppose for Chelsea backers.
1250 PLUMPTON seems to be the only real choice today in a poor all weather card and a heavy ground laden jumps card.
Regular followers know that when a betting forecast price appears considerably shorter in the live betting market, then that is a great sign.5/4 in the betting forecast, Ranjobaie is now 2/5 in the live betting market.
1.49 to win and 1.1 to place. I have mentioned this little tactic before, of backing Ranjobaie at 1.49 in the win market and then placing a KEEP BETS lay at around 1.2 laying to the same stake at which we backed, in the hope the horse runs well , his odds shorten in running, and our lay bet is hit, resulting in a return of stake.
This option is too advanced and will over complicate things for many, but as the weeks progress I want to introduce these kinds of tactics , as well as utilising Betfair Multiples, as yesterday Spurs and Sunderland looked very strong.
NEGATIVES - Heavy ground a natural concern, as is horse's confidence regarding last fence fall last time out
POSITIVES - despite the above concerns the market is extremely sweet on Ranjobaie, and AP McCoy is in the plate.
ALTERNATIVES? Well with only 3 horses under 25/1 and 2 horses only under 14/1, what about risking Notus de la Tour to place at 1.34 ( he is 3/1 in the betting)? I put this idea forward for Diamond Harry in Big Buck's recent race and it came off.
8pm Real Madrid look ideally placed this evening to beat Osasuna, and will be motivated to by barca's dropping of 3 points at home last night. 1.51 for the away win or 1.25 for over 1.5 goals
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