For those interested in the football, Panathanaikos won ( in the ,erm, 94th minute) and over 2.5 goals came in for the speculative bettor (just about ,mind you!!) Milan won at 1/7 too .
Line freedom showed how difficult bumpers could be. Unplaced when very well fancied.
1250 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Ingleby Star, 4/1 Grudge, Where´s Reiley, 6/1 Guto, 7/1 Bo McGinty, Monte Major, 25/1 Cornus, 66/1 Edin Burgher,
| DIOMED VERDICT: INGLEBY STAR has shown enough both starts here to think a race like this is within his grasp and the 3lb his rider can claim is a bonus. |
A class 6 classified apprentice claimer over 5 furlongs - WHAT!!
3 non runners make it a little more interesting from a probability perspective though. A race to treat with a degree of caution given the outsider is only 10/1.
From my perspective it's a 6 runner race for 3 places. Dare we trust these horses ,and indeed, these jockeys?
3 places is most welcome in this 6 runner field and this makes it a 50/50 race - At time of writing, Grudge is fav at 9/4 , but cannot really be split from Ingleby Star and Bo McGinty.
Probability wise, we have a 50/50 chance in this racethat any selection will place i the first 3, but remember the race type above - makes this a very unpredictaable race
Grudge is 1.38 to place which relates to you the competitive nature of this race ( as does the outsider at only 10/1!!)
120 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Laureldeans Best, 7/2 Ask The Oracle, 9/2 Sure Fire, 6/1 Try Cat, 8/1 Dubai Creek, 16/1 Haka Dancer, Rawaaj, 20/1 Miss Ghena, 33/1 Oniz Tiptoes, Railway Park.
| DIOMED VERDICT: There seems good reason to expect a bold show from TRY CAT, whose dam won numerous races here, and she gets the vote in a weak maiden. Only 5 horses here under 14/1 in this maiden race.The betting forecast fav has come 3rd 3 times ( good for place only betting) but that man Barney Curley runs Sure fire. Sure fire is now clinging on to favouratism at time of writing. Any Curley horse needs close attention as he is a legendary gambler. This is one of those races that I cannot put anything up for consideration without looking at the live betting market before the race is off. Why? Well we need to see if Mr Curley has his tuppence on Sure fire. 130 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Kinky Afro, 11/4 Perfect Secret, 4/1 Red Yarn, 6/1 Emma Jean Lass, 20/1 Fareham Town, 33/1 Miss Polly Plum.
Fareham town a non runner. One clear outsider and one 8/1 runner. The head of the market sees Kinky Afro and Perfect secret around 13/8 and Red Yarn 3/1 Now we can reduce this race to 4, 2 of whom will place , BUT WHICH 2? This is a fillies maiden and my concern with these youngsters is their ability to handle the surface. Yet again, this unpredictability is recounted with huge 1.6 prices on Kinky Afro and Perfect secret 150 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Boogie Waltzer, 4/1 Turf Time, 5/1 Ya Boy Sir, 8/1 Caol Ila, 14/1 Gower Sophia, 16/1 Lairy, Lets Move It, 25/1 Lady Brickhouse.
Interesting that this race features the straight 8 runners ( and thus 3 places) A class 6 0-60 handicap and you should know by now that I look for price gappers in these races as they place with amazing regularity ( and in fact win a lot - see Divine force most recently) Boogie Waltzer is the horse in question but it is Turf Time who seems to be attracting support into 11/4 and 5/2 in places. In a race where only 3 horses are under 12/1, I would concentrate place only betting on Boogie Waltzer and Turf time Negative? -Boogie waltzer - " tough to beat if surface is ok" It is the imponderable of the slow at Southwell for a horse who has not run at Southwell. Turf Time ran at Southwell in December but I don't know if it was a slow surface then 3 horses under 16/1 here - Boogie Waltzer 1.34 to place but question mark regarding surface Turf time 1.56 to place - very inconsistent but backed today Interesting analysis for Turf tie last time "Turf Time raced keenly on his first start in 72 days and going one better shortly should be well within his grasp at this time of year. Time may prove he was unlucky to run in to an above-average winner for this grade." Form of 07092 - will this 2nd place prove a turning point? Robert Winston in the plate 230 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Takajan, 11/4 Noble Jack, 13/2 Oceans Edge, 7/1 New Den, 8/1 Peadar Miguel, 33/1 Lunaticus,
This should involve the front 4, but 3 of them are at around 11/4 making this a head scratcher. The race is mentioned because it's a 50/50 race - 4 horses for 2 places. The hint of money is for Noble jack 330 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Arganil, 2/1 Aeroplane, 8/1 Lujeanie, 16/1 Indian Skipper, 100/1 Sherjawy.
With Lujeanie out, can Arganil and Aeroplane fight this conditions event out? We saw yesterday with Admiral Cochrane that non runners really can open the race up for strong market leaders. Will be 2 places here. Here's what the market looks like Arganil 1/2 - 1.11 to place on Betfair Aeroplane 2/1 - 1.38 to place on Betfair Indian Skipper 14/1 - 3.55 to place on Betfair Sherzawy 66/1 - 15 to place on Betfair It does not take a genius to see that Indian Skipper is the fly in the ointment here. NEGATIVES - Arganil has not run since November - any reason? The all weather has been plentiful but I suppose the class of race he usually runs in hasn't. Class 1 and class 2 exclusively for this horse. Aeroplane was a one a dayer when JAmie Spencer took the ride at Lingfield. Since then, he has had 2 second places at Lingfield and Kempton under today's jockey. 510 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Chosen Forever, 7/1 Fujin Dancer, 15/2 Monreale, 9/1 Hilbre Court, 10/1 Bomber Brown, Supercast, 12/1 Boo, Doubnov, Life´s Challenge, 14/1 Resplendent Ace, West End Lad, 66/1 La Columbina.
Quite a price gap here for Chosen Forever in this class 5 handicap for 0-75 rated horses. He is on a hatrick which can be viewed positively or negatively - positively - proven recent form and progressive. Negative - winning sequences for multiple handicap winners will end eventually - slightly up in class today. 1.53 to place 610 WOLVES BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ahlawy, 100/30 Theocritus, 7/1 New Star, 8/1 Painted Sky, 10/1 Moonlight Man, Old Romney, 16/1 Back To Paris, 33/1 Eightdaysaweek, Spring Hawk.
3 non runners make life a little easier for the market leaders. Only 3 runners under 14/1 here and obvious to look at Ahlawy and Theocritus NEGATIVES? - Well Alhawy has not run since Epsom in August but is a multiple winner at Wolves - this is a selling stakes race too and we know from bitter experience that candidates in sellers cannot really be relied upon for anything approaaching consistency Watch out for Frank Spencer who is an eyecatching booking on Theocritus. "hard to look beyond " Alhawy " on these terms" Around 1.15 to place Although the main focus must return to the horses, the othr sports do deserve a little look in just incase there is that outstanding bet. FOOTBALL - Athletico Madrid 1.4 v Rec de Huelva - we need to know 1st leg scores to guage whether this is must win for Madrid.Huelva won 3-0 in the first leg so ,yes, there is motivation for Madrid at home ( albeit if they can be arsed to have a cup campaign) SHORTLIST Some unpredictable factors today in the races mentioned above - but which of the above races stand out? 150 SOUTHWELL - Dare we risk Turf Time who was a good 2nd last time out, is only one of 3 under 14/1 and has been very well supported all morning. Slight concern over Boogie Waltzer on the surface.1.59 to place 330 LINGFIELD - the best probability race of the day I would suggest. Looks to concern Arganil and Aeroplane whose job is made a lot easier by the fact the original 3rd favourite is a non runner Arganil is 1.11 to place Aeroplane is 1.28 to place The question is - can we trust Aeroplane again to place? Indian skipper the 14/1 3rd fav will hopefully run to his place 610 WOLVES Alhawy looks standout here if (like Arganil) gettin gover his break) |
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