5/1/10

High constable won his race and Wolfsburg scored 2 goals to no reply early allowing an easy trade .

With the big freeze wiping out national hunt racing, we are left with largely poor quality all weather racing, with all races either class 5 or class 6. Southwell is the only venue to chose from today, and you will remember one of the December losses was down to a horse trying Southwell for the first time. It would seem this track is different enough from other all weather tracks to be a slight concern for any horse debuting on it.

1240 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Machinist, 2/1 Stonecrabstomorrow, 8/1 Rosie Says No, 10/1 Mango Music,

DIOMED VERDICT: Fairly cut and dried on official ratings but a race that may be ripe for an upset with downgraded veteran Machinist seemingly at his most vulnerable after a break and untried on Fibresand. The tentative selection is STONECRABSTOMORROW, a clear second choice on form and proven on the surface.

4 horses and 2 places make this a simple probability race. Will the race pan out as per the prices, or will be get the usual claimer shock run from a perceived ooutsider?

Remember what I just said about the uniqueness of Southwell? Well, the front 2 in the market are debutants to the surface. Rosie says no has the most experience at Southwell, and MAngo Music has run here once, 7th of 11.

110 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Freddie´s Girl, 11/4 Ambrogina, 9/2 Luisa Tetrazzini, 5/1 Cross Section, 12/1 Lindy Hop, Montego Breeze, 20/1 Hold The Star, 40/1 Bella Fighetta.

DIOMED VERDICT: Most of these have questions to answer with regard to either the distance or the surface. Youth may have its say with the two 3yos Ambrogina and FREDDIE'S GIRL taken to dominate.

Interesting to see live market leader Ambrogina has run at Southwell, and was a head 2nd of last time out, so is happy enough with the surface.

140 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Elusive Warrior, 15/8 Obe Gold, 9/2 Boss Hog, 5/1 Cleveland, 33/1 Tango Step, 66/1 Favouring,

DIOMED VERDICT: Some capable types for the grade but this looks a decent opportunity for ELUSIVE WARRIOR to emphasise his liking for the track.

A seller and again note how diomed emphasises "the track" - an important element it would seem. Elusive warrior has run last 3 times here with a 6th place and 2 2nd places in 13+ runner handicaps. Obe Gold has not run at Southwell. There look to be 2 clear outsiders here which reduce the competitive field, it is hoped, to 4, 2 of whom will place.

But how much faith can we put in horses in a class 6 seller on the all weather?

240 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Dart, 5/1 Bright Sparky, Russian Music, 8/1 Sonny Sam, 10/1 Dawn Storm, Stagecoach Emerald, 12/1 Aleron, Veronicas Boy, 14/1 Summer Affair, 20/1 Seaquel, Zaffeu, 33/1 Muntami, 100/1 Firsaan.

DIOMED VERDICT: There should be more to come over this trip from RUSSIAN MUSIC and he can confirm Wolverhampton superiority over Bright Sparky.

Yet again yesterday, Shake on it was a price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap and won ( but I lacked faith -more fool me as he was 1.77 to place!!)
Here we have another price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap, a carbon copy of Shake on it, but in this case, the live betting market shows these prices
Dart 7/2
Russian Music 7/2
Aleron 6/1

Dart looks to have drifted, Russian music has been backed into joint favouratism and Aleron ( 12/1 in the betting forecast) looks quietly fancied at 6/1
Dart has run the last 5 times at Southwell, winning the last 2. You will have read me speak about multiple handicap winners eventually losing their winning streak in handicaps because the weight catches up with them.
Well, is the market hinting that today is the day for Dart to end his winning sequence? Out to 7/2 in the live betting, no price gap in the live betting?

340 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Love Guru, 7/2 Knightfire, 5/1 Whitby, 8/1 Lady Brickhouse, 10/1 Charlottesometimes, 12/1 Baby Judge, Clayton Flick, 16/1 Lets Move It.

DIOMED VERDICT: A modest handicap which affords THE LOVE GURU a decent chance to return to winning ways back down to 0-60 level.

The only time I really entertain 0-60 handicaps is when there is a possible price gapper ( a la Shake on it ) so this 340 race is not really ideal, but in the live betting there are only 3 horses under 14/1 - the ones to focus on? But, can we really trust these low grade animals to be consistent?

FOOTBALL
Well I sniffed out Wolfsburg yesterday against minnows and today's jolly involves Weder Bremen who are topping up their sun tans in Abu Dhabi
AL AIN V WERDER BREMEN 4pm
Werder take in their winter break and a " test match" as they call it ,against Al Ain. Werder's "test " matches ( friendlies to you and me!) have seen them score 2 or more in all bar one match against Sturm Graz. They have also won 5-0 twice and 5-2 once so are not averse to holding back because it's a friendly.
You will have seen yesterday that once Wolfsburg scored twice, they held back and the final result was 2-1 - instinctually I would say that this scoreline was Wolfsburg trying not to humiliate their VW compatriots.
Will Werder do the same?
Today is another made up Mickey Mouse " German Super Cup" , an excuse to raise the profile of Arab football.
You know as well as I do that THE Werder Bremen first team will wipe the floor with this lot under normal conditions.
Another illiquid betting market on Betfair, as expected with friendlies. 1.73 for a few £ in the match odds market, and 1.18 over 1.5 goals.
A very surprising big 4/5 for Werder Bremen in the match odds leads me to suspect they might be playing a severely weakened side.
745pm Porto v Leixos 1.34 - Porto are playing in the League Cup this time, having won 2-0 away from home in the Carlsberg Cup.
Key stat is team news here as this will tell us about motivation ( or lack thereof)
Porto won all at home bar a 1-1 draw and beat Leixos in the league 4-1.
So a League type side out tonight for Porto should signal a straight home win, but this is the Cup!!Leixos away in the league have been beaten by 2 of the front 3 convincingly, but with all of the other sides, games have been tight - 3 1-0 defeats and a 1-1 draw amongst results.

It looks as though Porto have the upper hand here. The question remains whether this Cup is on the priority list for them

From a psychological perspective, they certainly DO NOT want to lose at home, given the record they have this season. Losing at home could affect them greatly.

9pm Barcelona v Sevilla - 1.44 The Spanish Cup and with the recent globe trotting and lost points at home, surely Guardiola will mix up the team a little ( although their lost 2 points in the league were not punished by Real)
With an identical home record to Porto, Barca will not want to lose at home this season, to keep up the air of invincibility at the Nou Camp.
These 2 sides usually serve up goals galore ( under normal circumstances of course)
The problem with a time constrained message is that I cannot comfortably relate team strength and then guage a bet from there.

This is also a 2 legged affair which means it is only the 1st half being played this evening.

Interesting team news for Sevilla
Apart from the African Cup of Nations absentees for both sides
"Sevilla are also plagued by a rash of absentees - Javi Varas, Fazio, Squillaci, Sergio Sánchez, Adriano, De Mul, Acosta and Luis Fabiano will all miss the first leg and Jiménez will have to rely on the reserves to make up the numbers."

Is this the reason behind the short price for Barca tonight? With the weakened Sevilla side, and their current price of 8.4, they are layable for an equivalent return of 1.12.

TENNIS
QATAR OPEN
is of interest today given the big boys are playing
FEDERER V ROCHUS SET BETTING 1.14 FEDERER 2-0
IF Federer is 1.03 in the match odds market, then surely this signals an easy win, all things being equal?
Head to heads - only one meeting and a straight sets victory at Wimbledon

DAVYDENKO V KUKUSHKIN
1.1 Davydenko.
6th in the world plays 132nd in the world and ,indeed, it would be a shock should Davydenko lose.

BDO World Championship Darts 2010 second round matches

VAN DER WIEL v HANKEY - 1.21 HANKEY
This is Ted Hankey, one of the more established players in this lakeside tournament and surely he will not be wanting an early exit in the 2nd round? Not a darts expert, but surely experience can tell for Ted Hankey and the 1.21 ,then, looks relatively big?
I cannot really find any match stats for this game so really am going by the odds and the experience of the Lakesid that Ted Hankey has over a player who only lasted the first round last year.

SHORTLIST
With the Southwell surface being churned and harrowed, this adds further complications to an already difficult card.
The 110 Southwell would have been of interest were it not for the fact that these are maiden fillies and the ground, as it is, may not show their true running - Ambrogina would have been the selection here.

4pm Al Ain v Werder Bremen - I cannot track down the team news for Werder Bremen at all, suffice to say that any game involving Werder normally includes goals galore. Some joker on Betfair is offering 1.18 for over 1.5 goals. This is a false price because the market is not liquid and there are no market forces to force this price to its true level. This ,though, would be the market of interest. As it is a friendly, too, I would insist on trading.
Perhaps we could LAY Al Ain here at odds of around 5. In this case, your stake you normally use would instead become your fixed liability ( eg if £100 stake, then it becomes £ 100 fixed liability if laying). I cannot see Werder Bremen losing this, and their friendly record shows that generally they take it seriously

745pm - Porto v Leixos 1.34 - head to heads very encouraging indeed for Porto. Not lost at home all season - only drawn once at home all season.
League Cup so team news vital and as you can appreciate I a at a real disadvantage some hours prior to the game. Preference would be in laying Leixos to fixed liability on the presumption that Porto woould not want to scupper their unbeaten home record.

9pm - you will have noted the team news for Sevilla - they are likely to field a much weakened side, by circumstance rather than design, which may go some way to justifying the odds for Barcelona at home at 1.45.
Yet again, I cannot find any team news for Barcelona. This is key really in this 2 legged affair. The assumption is that they would want to take something to defend away to Sevilla in the 2nd leg. Again, I would be looking to lay Sevilla rather than back Barcelona.

TENNIS
Qatar Open
Federer looks poised ,at 1/33, to beat C Rochus easily. 2 sets to love is available at 1.14 presently
Of course there is always the spectre of a set loss, but 1/33 shots should not lose a set in the best to 2
If you wanted an easier ride, the Davydenko at 1.1 only has to win his match. 6th in the world plays 132nd in the world. He should prevail

DARTS
The absence of any real online stats or game profiles makes life difficult, but surely Ted Hankey at 1.21 will not get beaten in the 2nd round of the BDO World Championship-seeded 5th, he should prevail.

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
No horse racing today because the weather will still have affected the all weather surface at Soouthwell.

• over 1.5 goals in the Al Ain v Werder Bremen friendly at 4pm
  
• Barcelona v Sevilla - lay Sevilla using the Liability option ( enter the stake you use to back normally eg £100) -this allows a fixed liability and an equivalent 1.13 bet)
• Roger Federer to beat C Rochus 2 sets to nil is available at 1.14
• Ted Hankey to beat Van De Wiel in the BDO World Darts Championship is 1.21