ONE A DAY - Due to a late inspection at Cheltenham (11 30am) and my need to get the message out, I will call a NO BET day today. There are 2 races of interest at Cheltenham and the 320 especially - if you are interested ( and CHELTENHAM gets the go ahead) then read the message.
Do take on board the words of AP McCoy and Choc Thornton below regarding ground conditions.
Beroni and Farringdon took 1st and 2nd but Miss Overdrive was unplaced (5th) so mixed blessings re no bets yesterday
I looked at the cards fleetingly yesterday and there did not seem to be many opportunities. Another look now will reveal all.
Tomorrow really is the day of plentiful opportunities with Cup football unfurling some massive mismatches that we can exploit.
1230 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Radium, 6/1 Hellfire Club, 15/2 Four Strong Winds, 10/1 Cunning Clarets, 12/1 American Cricket, Coeur De Fou, Makhzoon, Marley Roca, 14/1 Empty Sky, King Ozzy, Lord Singer, Sonny Mullen, 16/1 Rileyev, 20/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 25/1 Paddy Live, 33/1 Tiermore.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HELLFIRE CLUB could have got in lightly and may prove the pick, though he does have it to prove on the ground. Radium and American Cricket are feared most. |
A high class card means a competitive card! Radium, for Geraghty and Henderson, has been well supported into 9/4 in this 16 runner handicap hurdle.
Good news for place backers - 4 places 1.58 to place
Fakenham and Exeter are both off, leaving just Cheltenham and Southwell and a heavy ground Tramore.
140 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Punchestowns, 11/2 Bensalem, 6/1 Seven Is My Number, 8/1 Knockara Beau, 16/1 Pigeon Island.
| DIOMED VERDICT: PUNCHESTOWNS, rated the best part of two stone or more better than these over hurdles, got the job done well enough on his chasing debut and is taken to pass this much sterner test. Bensalem may be the one to chase him home. |
If only this was a 3 place race like Big Buck's. Now 1/2 Punchestowns is having only his 2nd chase run.Can we discount Pigeon Island? If so, then this is a 4 horse race for 2 places. The opposition, though, I cannot readily discount, and I cannot see Punchestowns as nailed on material like a Kauto Star or a Big Buck's.
His form is unquestionable over hurdles, only finding Big Buck's too good twice.
The fact remains that this opposition features experienced chasers versus a 2nd time out chaser whose potential is there.1.22 to place
320 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mr Thriller, 2/1 Katchit, 4/1 Sentry Duty.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Katchit has a fine record here and would have strong claims at these favourable weights if able to run to anything like the form shown when sixth in last March's Champion. However, his record since raises enough doubts for ready preference to be accorded to progressive front-runner MR THRILLER. |
I am very surprised to see a place market up for this race, but it's there and 1.17 for Mr thriller looks a great bet to 1) jump around without falling and 2) to not get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race.
A high class race such as this means that all 3 cannot be confidently discounted, but playing the probabilities, it looks a great race to focus on.
At time of writing there is a questionmark about the ground at Cheltenham
"CHELTENHAM will inspect again at 11.30am prior to Friday's fixture.
An inspection 10am proved inconclusivewith temperatures dropping to -7C, although they are on the rise.
Champion jockey Tony McCoy walked the course and said: "It's not ideal as parts of the course are still suspect and if temperatures don't rise, they are going to struggle."
Robert Thornton added: "Where there's grass it's probably fine, but on other parts of the course it's still frozen and they are going to struggle.""
I cannot wait until the go ahead, so will take the above quotes as looking like bad news and pre ept this with a no bet day.
The 2 races mentioned above , featuring Punchestowns and Mr Thriller would have been the ones to focus on, and I would have sided with the 320 Cheltenham Mr Thriller to place UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS
BUT it seems we do not have ideal conditions.
Plentiful opportunities tomorrow and no real ground considerations with the cup football.
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