Again, I will offer an alternative . Like yesterday, some want place only betting, while others don't mind sports. I feel today that it would be wrong not to exploit the huge gulf in class in the first round of the Australian Open, and with that in mind, backing players like Davydenko, Djokovic and Federer to replicate Murray ( 6-1,6-1,6-2) and win 3 sets to 0 in the set betting .
This opportunity does not come along often. This is a grand slam. These are the top players. Should be massive gulf in class. 1.16 is the general price for these 3-0 sets BUT you will have to wait til later on today as the markets do not have enough liquidity. If any of these 3 drop a set when 1/100 to win the match, well I'll hold my hands up!!
I prefer this to heavy ground beginners chasers but feel that Hinton Thunderbolt represents the best probability bet of the day. We always face the spectre of a fall which is why I want to put up a tennis alternative.
Panathanaikos scored 2 before half time and that was all that was needed. Wanchai Whisper a neck 2nd for the place only backers.
125 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Kempes, 100/30 See U Bob, 10/1 Mister Farmer, 12/1 Becolark, 14/1 Lock Mor Lad, 25/1 Harbour Hall, No Reception, 33/1 Benniegiblin, Montauk Highway, Torremuelle.
A beginners chase so ,again, this lot have L Plates on.
Kempes is around 1/3 in the win market, represents Mullins/Walsh and came 2nd on his previous chase start in heavy ground. A faller 2 runs ago under Davy Condon a slight concern, but a clear round this time and should place with ease.
I must say I don't like chase betting at the best of times, more so beginners chases. FAith in connections and the market here?
One of only 2 horses under 14/1 - due consideration for the other horse under 14/1 See U Bob - could he be the value place only play here?
1.13 for Kempes to place ( illiquid market) and 1.36 See U Bob
130 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Madame Mado, 3/1 Cut The Lugsreilly, 100/30 No Rules, 7/1 Kensington Oval, 8/1 Agapanthus, 10/1 Silver Accord, 14/1 Firm Order, 33/1 Aega, Spate River, 50/1 Annie The Doc, Phare Isle, 100/1 Against The Rules, Bromhead, Earl Of Thomond.
| DIOMED VERDICT: MADAME MADO should benefit enormously for her run at Doncaster and could be the answer. |
Only 3 under 10/1 here the ones to focus on? Geraghty/Henderson on the favourite command automatic respect, but ,like beginners chases, maiden hurdles tell us these are unexperienced
Beware Agapanthus - Barney Curley likes a punt so watch the market.
1.36 Madame Modo to place
140 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Hunterview, 5/4 Salden Licht, 12/1 Beau Fighter, 25/1 Beau Lake, Future Vision, Vin Rose, 33/1 Cappagh, Rebel Dancer, Sarando, 100/1 Bridge Of Fermoy, 200/1 Cedar Falls, Foot To The Flora, Queenstown Lad,
| DIOMED VERDICT: This would appear to revolve around Salden Licht and HUNTERVIEW. The difference between the pair on official Flat ratings last year was marginal but Salden Licht, although impressive, might not have beaten much on his hurdling debut and could have difficulty giving the weight to his junior rival. |
Only 2 under 12/1 in the betting forecast becomes 3 under 16/1 in the live market with a shortening of Beau Fighter's odds.
The assumption must be, if chosing either market leader to place, that both will place.
13 runners remain - 4 are 250/1 or bigger.
Hunterview ran 2nd in heavy last time. Salden Licht won last time, but has only really experienced soft ground.
1.21 for both the front 2 to place
200 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Five Dream, 2/1 First Point, 7/2 Victorias Groom, 6/1 Son Of Flicka, 66/1 Phoenix Des Mottes.
| DIOMED VERDICT: FIVE DREAM should have the measure of First Point on this ground. |
Son of Flicka a non runner makes this a 3 horse race for 2 places.Which of these 3 will not place?
1.36 Five Dream to place
1.38 First Point to place
1.93 Victorias groom to place
17 Phoenix to place
Ver y enticing prices
210 PLUMPTON
| DIOMED VERDICT: There have to be reservations about Lupanar and Song Sung Blue so HINTON THUNDERBOLT, who made an encouraging chasing debut after a season's absence, is likely to prove hard to beat. |
Just like above, 3 horses now and 2 places with Petito a non runner. Hinton has run on heavy.
Hinton Thunderbolt 1.17 to place
Song Sung Blue 1.33 to place
Lupanar 2.5 to place
It is clear who the market favours in the place market. Will Hinton get beaten by 2 in a 3 horse race - indeed we need to remind ourselves that these horses must actually produce a clear round of jumping to place.
300 FAKENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Kerada, 4/1 Hellfire Club, Rushwee, 20/1 Cockney Prince, 25/1 Abey M´Boy, The Bonus Ball, 33/1 Fort Severn, Spot The Ball, 50/1 Daaloob, 100/1 Blazing Tommy, Just An Ace, Tribunel,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Huntingdon winner KERADA can enhance Nicky Henderson's excellent record in this race. |
Rushwee an important non runner now really accentuates the price gap between the front 2 and the rest. Kerada and Hellfire Club make up the market here pretty much - the only 2 runners under 12/1, 2 of only 3 under 20/1
1.16 Kerada to place and 1.25 (guide only as illiquid market) on Hellfire Club to place
320 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Rock A Doodle Doo, 5/1 New Den, 13/2 The Great Husk, 7/1 Always Dixie, She´s My Rock, 10/1 Concorde Kiss, Pie Poudre, Vittachi, 20/1 Scintillating, 25/1 Heligoland.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ROCK A DOODLE DOO should appreciate another step up in trip and he is preferred to New Den, who is also open to improvement. |
Class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper - Rock a doodle doo is now odds on in the live market and you know by now that these price gappers in this lowly grade are adept at placing. 1.3 to place ( again illiquid market)
350 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Tuscan King, 100/30 Premium Charge, 6/1 Magic Spirit, 13/2 Holkham, 20/1 Creevy.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TUSCAN KING has plenty going for him on his debut for David Evans in a particularly weak claimer. Premium Charge is the obvious danger. |
A price gapper in the live market for Mr Evans ( trainer of Wanchai Whisper and Clear Sailing coincidentally) Why is Creevy 8/1 in the live market - a gamble?
Another claimer this one so not the best grade and only 2 places. Dare we take this price gap on trust? 1.21 Tuscan King to place
450 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Le Volcan D´Or, 7/4 Reallymissgreeley, 25/1 Royal Torbo, 50/1 Sternian.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The standard set by Reallymissgreeley is not an exacting one and the well-bred LE VOLCAN D'OR should be able to make a winning debut. |
Le Volcan D'Or represents Johnston/Fanning and you are aware of my admiration for this pairing. BUT this is a debutant in this maiden and their last newcomer was similarly profiled but simply was very green indeed, and tailed off 3rd of 4 runners. So it's hit and miss really if going with the market when there are debutants.
To make this maiden even more of a headscratcher, why is Royal torbo 14/1 in the live market. A rick by the betting forecaster or a hint that today the connections expect a good run ?
This is a very interesting race as it should involve 3 horses again for 2 places.
Le Volcan D'or 1.16 to place
REallymissgreally 1.16 to place
Royal Torbo 4.5 to place
Sternian 8.8 to place
Again this market is wholly illiquid and these prices must only be guide prices as there is no market forces in the majority of horse races today.
FOOTBALL
Forfar v St Johnstone - 1.36 away side - again just going by the odds - St Johnstone are 9th in a weak SPL.
TENNIS
With the Australian Open upon us, the first round matches should see some real mismatches. I have already exploited this by backing Kim Clijsters at around 1.16 for 2-0 when she was 1.02 to win the match! That obliged last night.
It is a little trickier for the men as we revert to first to 3 sets and have to hope that they win 3 straight sets to make backing 1.02 shots viable.
Andy Murray was a 1.02 shot last night and won 6-1 , 6-1 , 6-2 so this is the kind of score we should expect from early round 1.02 shots.
Midnight sees Kindlemann face Davydenko. 1.03 for Davy, twice recent conqueror of Federer and really on top of his game at present. He has brought a new consistency to his game which makes him a backable proposition for 3-0 sets - there is no real money in the market as it is 12+ hours til game time 1.16 at Ladbrokes should act as a guide.
Federer plays this evening , as does Djokovic and both are around 1.16 for 3-0 sets.
These are 1/100 and 1/66 shots in the win market. I would have greater faith in Djokovic to win 3-0 than a slightly stuttering Federer.
SHORTLIST
125 THURLES - A return to 2 miles will suit Kempes today as he was labouring in heavy over 2 miles 4 furlongs last time on chase debut.
heavy ground the concern today at Thurles and the ideal is to leave heavy venues alone, but the 1/3 would seem to factor in conditions today.
Negatives - lack of liquidity in the market means there's not much money available at tie of writing
140 PLUMPTON - This surely is between SAlden Licht and Hunterview, both around 1.21 to place.
Again we have the spectre of heavy ground at Plumpton which makes decision making dificult.
Presumption with involvement in this race for place only betting is that both will place, as I cannot split them.
200 FAKENHAM - characteristic of today is the number of "probability races". Here we have a 4 horse race ( one at 125/1) leaving 3 fighting for 2 places. Lucky dip really which one to chose
Five Dream has those words " hard to beat" which is enticing. 2 miles 5 over chase fences in soft ground the concern.
Can Victorias Groom be safely discounted? I fear not!
210 PLUMPTON - another very enticing race this one - 3 horses and still 2 places with Hinton Thunderbolt 8/11, Song Sung Blue 9/4 and Lupanar 13/2
We hope for 2 things here - 1) Lupanar runs as an outsider 2) Hinton Thunderbolt has a clear round.
Hinton has won on heavy over hurdles so handles conditions. A clear round is the key to not being beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race.
1.17 in this context is worth considering
300 FAKENHAM - a 2 horse race if the market is accurate and I would side with Geraghty/Henderson's Kerida to place - 1.18
320 WOLVES - the obligatory price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap Rock a Doodle Do has hardened in the live market to 11/10 with next best 7/1. A good sign.
These price gappers have a high success rate for placing
Analysis of last race
"Rock A Doodle Doo looked a certain improver for the step up to 1m and he flashed home to take second, but the winner was not for catching. This was a promising performance and he should have no trouble winning a smallrace."
No obstacles to overcome here apart from not getting beaten by 3 others in this 9 horse race.
Around 1.28 to place is a nice price
450 WOLVES - the market tells us Le Volcan Dor is above average debutant for Johnston/Fanning but their last debutant bombed out. Reallymissgreally has the experience and is closely matched up. Question though whether Royal torbo (25/1 in the betting forecast) and 16/1 in the live betting is a gamble?
TENNIS
The Australian Open sees Roger Federer at 1/66 , Novak Djokovic at 1/100 and Davydenko 1/100 this evening.
This immediately takes me to the set betting where all are 1.16 with Ladbrokes to win 3-0.
A great price ,and focus for me would be on Djokovic above the rest. Although all 3 should do as similarly priced Andy Murray did yesterday and win 6-1,6-1,6-2 or even better.
With so many niggly races, this is a very viable alternative
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Heavy ground a massive concern today epecially over the jumps and we have to exercise extreme caution.And as ever with jumps, we have the spectre of a fall scuppering the most well argued bet!
125 THURLES - Kempes handles heavy last time but was struggling to see out the bigger trip last time. Now down to 2 miles and with Ruby Walsh onboard, a clear round should ensure a place.
210 PLUMPTON - Hinton Thunderbolt only as 2 to beat to place, one a 13/2 shot. Yet again a clear round should help ensure he finishes 1st or 2nd.
320 WOLVES - Rock a doodle doo is a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap. The price gap even better in the live market 11/10 - - - 7/1 signalling he should be competitive -only one run on the all weather was at Lingfield
Federer/Djokovic/Davydenko all to win 3-0 this evening - these 3 should all win comfortably without dropping a set and 1.16 ( Ladbrokes price - we will have to wait for the Betfair markets to gain liquidity) is a great price.
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