Horse racing, the best probability race is the 230 Wolves, Wanchai Whisper to place only in a race where there are only 4 horses under 33/1 and still 3 places on Betfair.
I know some do not like football bets which is why I have included a place only bet today. Personally I am going to chance Panathanaikos v Panthrakikos over 1.5 goals at 245pm
I leave it up to you whether you want to remain with the horse racing or go with the football
Clear sailing won which was welcome given this was a tricky claimer.
Heavy at Fairyhouse is a niggle. Of interest under normal circumstances would be ( by default) the Mullins/Walsh combinations at Fairyhouse, but we saw yesterday that Watergate under Nicholls/Walsh was unplaced - are these horses fully tuned up after the weather affected break?
1230 FAIRYHOUSE - Arvick Ligeionaire is one to consider in the maiden hurdle, but 16 runners and heavy ground not ideal.
130 FAIRYHOUSE - Scotsirish is another Mullins/Walsh horse but when the outsider is priced at 12/1, this is indicative of a competitive little race. Like Greyfriarschoristar yesterday, only 2 places and if place backing these one, we have to think they will win as there is no room for error.
200 FAIRYHOUSE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Cousin Vinny, 9/2 An Cathaoir Mor, 11/2 Kimberlite King, 6/1 Nicanor, 10/1 Mick The Man, 12/1 Del Rio, 14/1 Havagoodsip, 16/1 Good Luck Chuck, Mont Tresor, Organisedconfusion, 20/1 Wait For Green, 25/1 Lord Des Epeires.
Ever mindul of the heavy ground, Cousin Vinny's price gas shortened considerably fro his betting forecast price - now 1/2 in places. 3rd fav is a non runner which will make the job a little easier.
Only 3 horses under 16/1 , and only 5 horses under 33/1 should be the ones to focus on.
This is a beginners chase so be mindful that these horses have learner plates on .
Cousin Vinny is a recogniseable name from Cheltenham et al , running as he does, normally, in group one company.
Has only had the one chase run. Being an Irish horse, he is used to soft and heavy ground. Another for Mullins/Walsh.
1.15 to place here Cousin Vinny - is the distance a bit too short for him? I don't know - he has run over 16 furlongs so 15 furlongs should be okay. Heavy ground today and a beginners chase
230 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Wanchai Whisper, 5/2 Magenta Strait, 11/2 Blue Neptune, Zelos Dream, 20/1 Captain Tony, 33/1 Young George, 66/1 Rightcar Marian, 100/1 Daphne Du Maurier.
| DIOMED VERDICT: WANCHAI WHISPER has shown her best form at Kempton but she acts this way round as well and has plenty going for her back down in class after improving in handicap company lately |
Remember Alhawy ? Yes this is a seller so we really cannot trust this lot to show any semblance of consistency. So why is this of interest? One non runner reduces the field to 7 horses. 2 horses are 50/1 or bigger and one is 33/1. This should, then , be a race of 4 runners and 3 places.
This is the same jockey/trainer combination behind Clear Sailing yesterday.
Wanchai Whisper is odds on and seems to be one of 4 here. Dare we trust a seller after Alhawy's debacle (unplaced in a 6 runner race and 3 places?)
3rd to Boogie Waltzer ( remember him - price gapper in a class 6 handicap) last time is reasonable form. I likes the way Paul Doe handled odds on shot Clear Sailing yesterday. The form is there for Wanchai Whisper, but, as ever, the niggle is that this is a seller.1.11 to place in a 7 runner race and 3 places.
255 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Rhyl Accord, 6/4 Thegreatjohnbrowne, 8/1 Fennis Boy, 10/1 Elysian Rock, 16/1 West Ship Master, 20/1 Kusadasi, 25/1 Tigerocracy, 33/1 Vardas Partner.
2 horses pretty much make the book in this race. Rhyl Accord is the Townend/Mullins combo ( would be Ruby but he's at Fairyhouse)
2 miles 6 furlongs is a hell of a way, with obstacles to overcome, to carry the Keeling millions. Still, this should, bar a fall, be a 2 horse race. This is one of those races where we must assume both Rhyl and Thegreatjohnbrowne will place. Illiquid market at present but in an interview this morning, Willie Mullins pointed punters to Thurles rather than Fairyhouse - take the hint>
1.09 to place - I will be honest - I'd much prefer Panathanaikos over 1.5 goals at 1.16
425 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Our Aodh, 5/2 Benarchat, 3/1 Made In Time, 4/1 Bay Central, 12/1 Royal Mile, 33/1 De Mandavoska, 50/1 Bulkawa Bellevue,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Our Aodh boasts the best form without setting the bar particularly high and it can pay to pass him over in favour of the newcomer MADE IN TIME, who has the right sort of pedigree, represents a stable whose bumper runners are in good nick and has the champion jockey aboard. |
Tony McCoy loves Ffos Las and this is why I mention this race. As you will have read previously, with bumpers ( or national hunt flat races as they are usually known) the market is king, and the ideal is to look at the market just before the off.
Made in time is the McCoy mount here - 7 horses and 3 places - 2 horses are 28/1 and 50/1 who should play no part.
As ever, it is far too early to be confident in any selection in a bumper ( or maiden!). 7 runners and 3 places - 1.35 for Made in Time but I must reiterate that you are almost betting blind here in these bumpers if betting now and not consulting the market right near the off
FOOTBALL
The return of jumps, especially in Ireland, does not fill me with confidence, and I hope you can see there is nothing remotely approaching the kind of strong bets ( and strong arguments that went with them) of yesterday. So, I will look at the footy today as an alternative.
1pm Omonia v APEP 1.15
2 1-0's and 2 1-1 draws at home for Omonia do not justify 1.15 unless APEP are PAPP!! 2 recent away wins for APEP have come in the Cyprus Cup and league agaisnt similarly rated side.
130pm - Aston villa v West Ham - instinct would tell me to approach this from a goals angle
6th v 18th tell you of the contrasting fortunes of these 2.
Villa lost away to the Hammers 2-1. Villa have beaten those around West ham in the league at Home with relative comfort. Over 1.5 goals looks good enough for me. A lay of the Hammers too perhaps?
2pm AC Milan v Siena - 1.29 - Siena were great away to Inter Milan 3-2 up with 5 minutes to go and lose 4-3. Macarone ( ex Premiership) looks great up front.
Siena, as I mentioned in my analysis of the Inter v Siena match last week, rarely get spanked and tend to go oh so close before folding.
AC Milan won 7 of his last 8 ,losing at home to Palermo. In rude health.
Beat Siena 2-1 at their place.
2 goals or more in their last 8 matches signal another goals bet?
245 Panathanaikos v Panthrakikos 1.09 - as you saw with Hibs , and Man Utd yesterday, this should signal goals.
1.16 over 1.5 goals looks outstanding in the context of this price. I normally expect over 1.5 goals.
Panathanaikos were 1.13 mid week and needed a 94th minute winner in the Greek Cup, but this is the league and motivation likely to be restored
This is top versus bottom.-only loss all season has been v Olympiakos.
78% of home matches have been over 2.5 goals
NOTE - head to heads - only beat Panthrakikos 1-0 at their place
Only one match at home for Panathanaikos has finished less than 1.5 goals.
75% of Panthrakikos's away games have finished over 2.5 goals.
They have lost their last 4, and not won all season. Against Olympiakos , they lost 3-0 so this is an expected scoreline today.
630pm - Galatasary 1.11 v Denizli -Turkish Cup so have to hope this is a strong galatasary side and thy have a semblance of interest in the Cup. At home, so at least the supporters will help inspire.
SHORTLIST
245 Panathanaikos v Panthrakikos - 1.16 over 1.5 goals. I know a lot of you prefer horse racing place only betting for the one a day but I see this as an outstanding bet ( no heavy ground or chase fences to overcome!!)
1.09 for the home team should, ideally, mean goals. Yes it was 1-0 at Panthrakikos but the away side have been battered recently.
This fits into the category of being a shock if there are no goals or only the one goal ( an early goal and this is tradeable.
We always have the spectre of a degree of bus parking when top versus bottom, but home advantage and true form should make for around 2-0, 3-0 or bigger.
£600 at 1.16 , own to £2k at 1.14 available at time of writing.
200 FAIRYHOUSE - only 3 horses under 20/1 in this beginners chase and Cousin Vinny really should be competitive - of course if there is a clear round.1.15 to place
230 WOLVES - Wanchai Whisper 1.11 to place in the first 3 in a 7 runner seller. Winning combo from yesterday and consistent enough form for a seller candidate! Still, I cannot get away from him. Alhawy was coming back from a lay off and had the blinkers on on his comeback - no good signs.
Wanchai's close proximity to Boogie Waltzer recently is good form.
255 THURLES - in an interview this morning on At the Races, Willie Mullins put forward Rhyl Accord as his strongest bet of the day ( and remember most of his horses today are strong favourites) - take the hint? Illiquid betting market should improve nearer the off.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
So, one football bet, 2 Irish jumps bets and a selling stakes race on the all weather.
All of these bets look strong today and it is difficult making a selection amongst them but, if approaching from a "shock if this one does not come in" perspective, then Panathanaikos to win, and over 1.5 goals in the Panathanaikos v Panthrakikos match must be the bet today
1.08 for the match odds win is reasonable , and this is enhanced by the 1.16 over 1.5 goal
From a horse racing perspective, the 230 Wolves looks the best probability race here. Yes, it is a seller, but Wanchai Whisper has recent good form, (unlike Alhawy) . 3 horses are 33/1 or bigger and hopefully play no part, meaning that this should be a 4 horse race and 3 places.1.11 to place for winning combo yesterday.
Negatives - seller race.5 furlongs -so tardy starts should be punished
Positives - Paul Doe been on him last 4 runs - 2 wins, one 2nd and a 3rd
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