20/01

ONE A DAY - 120 LINGFIELD - Wicked Daze TO PLACE ONLY

Alpha ridge finished 2nd and Diapason 3rd - that's why I didn't want to risk a 2 the place race.

Incidentally there were some interesting non one a dayers in the analysis, including the winner of the Johnston/Fanning maiden, Quarante Deux who was a debutante and market mover following on from neck 2nd Royal Torbo the day before which I highlighted at 16/1. Pity these weren't put up as one a dayer's!!


1255 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Chasing Cars, Western Charmer, 7/2 Corskeagh Royale, 9/2 Browns Baily, 6/1 Citizen Vic, 14/1 Irish Realm, 16/1 Presenting Massey, 33/1 Arctic Mick, Hamiltoncove.

This should involve 5 horses under 16/1, but, as with Hinton Thunderbolt, this is a beginners chase and the clue is in the title as to how trustworthy this lot are.
We can only guage from the betting market how they will find these chase fences in this heavy ground.

110 NEWCASTLE
Trouble with copy and pasting and I must move on. This race sees 3 horses under 20/1 in the betting forecast and Diamond frontier " very much the one to beat" - I do see these words as trigger words and it is a simplistic little system but the runners to whom these words are attached have a tendency to run well.

In the live market Prince Tam is shortened into 16/1 and 14/1 in places - may be another market mover or a rick on the part of the betting forecast.er. Note what I said above though - this is another beginners chase. The writer of Diomed seems to have conveniently glossed over Diamond Frontier's last under par run and focussed on the run before that. I do like the connections of this one too.

120 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 2/5 Wicked Daze, 5/1 Alrafid, 8/1 Leulahleulahlay, 14/1 Acropolis, 33/1 Primera Rossa, 66/1 Maverick´s Magic, Randomer.

DIOMED VERDICT: WICKED DAZE has plenty going for him and is very hard to oppose.

Yet again, as above, w see those words " very hard to oppose" and within Comment " hard to beat" Wicked Daze has shortened to 1/3.
This is only a 2 the place race -significant price gap and if Frank Spencer does with Wicked Daze what he did with similarly priced Aeroplane when he was in a claimer, then we will be home and hosed.
NEGATIVES - depends which Frank Spencer turns up - if he just gets the job done then this will be easy pickings 2 places mean that we have to hope this one will win
POSITIVES - the extreme confidence in Diomed is a rtigger, as I said earlier, for a good run, and this is mirrored in the price.
1.12 to place is perfectly reasonable within this context. Unlike the 2 the place races yesterday, this one looks far more clear cut.Won a claimer last time in this grade.

125 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs The Dew At Night, 5/1 Sole Bonne Femme, 6/1 Battlefront, 7/1 Clear Gold, 8/1 Adajal, Ard Agus Fada, 10/1 L´Acajou, 14/1 Oscar Dubh, 25/1 Bodega Bay.

2 to note here - price gapper The Dew at Night and Walsh/Mullins Clear Gold who is now 2nd favourite ( look at the betting forecast as a comparison) HEavy ground alas tempers enthusiasm

140 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Wymott, 7/4 The Knoxs, 12/1 Soldiers Tree, 16/1 Minouchka, Tyrone House, 20/1 Club Class, 25/1 Playing The Field, Return Perk, 33/1 Bel Hugo, Rydale Lad, 40/1 Too Cool To Fool, 50/1 Seeking Power.

DIOMED VERDICT: The two previous hurdles winners, WYMOTT (nap) and The Knoxs, stand out.

Cast your minds back to 2 days ago,this is a mirror image of the 140 Plumpton, with Hunters view and Salden licht the 2 strong market leaders ( in thieir places here is Wyott and The Knoxs) Now we can learn a lesson from the 140 Plumpton. Salden licht won and Huntersview was unplaced. This will more than likely occur here unless we are lucky enough to see Wymott and The Knox's fighting for 1st and 2nd at the end of the race.
So it becomes difficult therefore to pin your colours to the mast. Which one is likely to falter?

200 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Mourad, 9/4 Rubi Light, 5/1 Across The Bay, 11/2 Blazing Tempo, 12/1 Head Held High, 14/1 Got Attitude.

has only failed to place once and that was 4th of 11 at Autieul.
Walsh/Mullins and I know this horse before. Yes, only 2 places
3 horses are 22/1 or bigger, the remainder are evens, 2/1 and 15/2
Here's hoping Mourad places again -has the right man onboard, and ground not a concern ( as is normal with these Irish animals)

230 LINGFIELD
again cut and paste problems with firefox. I note Confidentiality is 2nd and 1st in his last 2 runs. This is a horse that racked up a huge winning run and it is a gamble that he might be in the groove again

235 PUNCHESTOWN

5 runner race - 3 are 25/1 or lower, and smart flat recruit Pittoni is very well supported -won his maiden hurdle latest, and i the market is anything to go by, will be competitive here.

345 PUNCHESTOWN

Eyecatching jockey/trainer combination for Frascati Park in this maiden hurdle. HAven't seen Ruby ride for Nigel Twiston-Davies that often.

Odds on fav but a big field and 2 class 1 hurdles runs behind him.

FOOTBALL

6pm Sochaux v Lille - I mention Lille every week and joke that surely they won't score 3 or more again ( I think it is 9 or 10 games on the trot where they have scored 3 or more home and away) Surely, then over 1.5 goals until this remarkable goalscoring run ends.

AND they have been winning even at over evens ,so it does not see to matter about how the bookies are pricing them up, they keep scoring and scoring!!

745p - Arsenal v Bolton -1.22 - etreme confidence from the bookies regarding this one - the reasoning I suppose is because this is a Premier League fixture and not a Cup game.

90% of Arsenal's home matches have returned over 2.5 goals

62% of Bolton's away matches have ended over 2.5 goals

Fly in the oitment is new manager syndrome for Bolton, beaten 2-0 in their last match at Bolton by Arsenal.

Normally these close proximity matches see a change of tack by the beaten side and a promise to not let that happen again.

9pm Sporting Lisbon v Mafra

-1.14

rmember what sub 1.2 means - goals! Ideally around 2 or 3 - home team in the Portugeuse top flight should be comfortable victors with their first team out

SHORTLIST

120 LINGFIELD - Wicked Daze is priced to win, so should find placing a little easier. Has those trigger words " very hard to oppose" which distinguish the horse from the 2 the place races yesterday. Clear price gapper and the only niggles are it's a claimer ( but Spencer has won on such a shortie in a claimer previously) 1.12 to place

200 PUNCHESTOWN - Mourad sticks in my mind for some reason - unplaced only once in all his recent runs and that was in France. Walsh onboard in what looks like a match. Handles the ground. 1.3 to place

235 PUNCHESTOWN - Pittoni is " all red" at the racing Post's betting site, signifying a consistent shortening of his price. As a flat horse, Mick Kinane rode him regularly so obviously a decent sort. Won his maiden hurdle and expected tp be competitive again. Only 3 horses under 25/1 so a good probability race and won in heavy last time. Doctor Deejay represents Walsh/Mullins and is the obvious rival for the win, but will Pittoni get beaten by the only real other contender Big game hunter as well as Doctor Deejay and not place?

1.28 to place

6pm Sochaux v Lille - I keep ignoring them match after match, thinking "surely they can't do it again" and sure enough they score 3!! Only over/under 2.5 goals is available which is a pity as I would have done the safer over 1.5 goals bet.

745 Arsenal v Bolton - 1.22 recounts strong home form. Bolton not too shabby v Arsenal at the reebock and new manager syndroe may see some improvement. 1.18 over 1.5 goals MAY rely solely on Arsenal here which is a slight concern. These over 1.5 goals bets are ideally reactive trade bets

9pm Sporting Lisbon v Mafra 1.14 - usually signifies goals and all of the recent matches at these odds have seen the team score a minimum of 2 goals, and generally win to nil.

Over 1.5 goals is 1.16. 1.14 backable for the Match Odds market assuming home advantage and a strong first team enough to secure a comfortable victory.

It all depends, as ever, on whether the home team want a Cup run

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

120 LINGFIELD - "very hard to oppose" " hard to beat" -price gapper - 1/3 now - won a claimer last time - 11 all weather starts - has finished in the top 3 9 times.

Frank Spencer on board and here's hoping he does to Wicked Daze what he did to another 1/3 shot in a claimer ( Aeroplane) and win with any amount in hand

2 places a slight negative but he profile of this race a lot stronger than the 2 yesterday

235 PUNCHESTOWN - I am drawn to Pittoni for some reason - strong market support and the fact this is a race involving 3 horses under 25/1 for 2 places.

Better priced that Wicked Daze at 1.28 to place. Heavy ground a concern but these Irish horses are used to inclement conditions and the attendant soft and heavy ground.

9pm Sporting Lisbon v Mafra - 1.14 - stick to the system that has served me well in recent weeks. These sub 1.20 shots rarely lose, especially when playing at home. Goals should be expected, but Sporting have been profligate in the league ( but a slight comeback with 3 scored at home last match should augur well in this)

As you can see, yesterday involved a 2 the plcae race on heavy in Ireland and I dismissed it, and a 2 the place all weather maiden and I ( correctly) dismissed it.

Today, though, the profiles of the races look different. Significant market support for both candidates