Apologies yesterday, my airport of choice was closed and I was stuck until yesterday evening thanks to icy runways.
The first month of the service has not been up to typical standards . Why?
The losing bets generally have one thing in common - they are generally not horse racing place only bets - Spurs, Seville lay, Darts and Ivory coast over 1.5 goals, for example,( incidentally Anorthosis did not disappoint ,scoring the 4 goals I predicted (not quite 5) when priced at sub 1.20). Considering the dates November 2008 to December 2009 saw some 20 odd losers throughout the YEAR, then 10th December to 11th January is very poor indeed.
It is time, I think, to return to place only betting on the horses predominantly as this was the mainstay of the year gone by when the strike rate was 95% over 13 months.
This really was the key to success and the bad weather has necessitated a look elsewhere as the all weather has simply been serving up class 5 and lower handicaps, claimers, maidens and sellers.
This year is missing 2+ meetings a day thanks to the big freeze, and this is something that I did not experience last year, being able to choose from a larger pool of horse races and thus having a chance to pick an actual place only bet. January typically sees some of the big guns and likely contenders for the Cheltenham Festival get some prep work in, and alas I am missing these usually rock solid opportunities from big gun stables.
So, primary focus again will be on horse racing place only betting and a return to what I was doing so successfully last year will, I hope, return us to the winning sequences of 20+ that I enjoyed so regularly.
HORSE RACING
Yet again we are left with all weather meetings, a smaller pool of races, and importantly, mostly poor grade affairs
Southwell sees a unique bumper ( national hunt flat race) card today -I suppose to give the national hunt boys a run out in some form or other. Bumpers, by necessity, require the live betting market in an ideal world as there are a lot of newcomers.
1230 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Anquetta, 9/2 Rupin, Takamaru, 12/1 De Forgotten Man, Mossini, 20/1 Mr Chippy, 25/1 Wordy´s Boy, 33/1 Mega Shocker, 50/1 Hoback Junction, 100/1 Beatemall,
| DIOMED VERDICT: A unique all-bumper meeting and none of the runners on the card has experience of Fibresand. Nicky Henderson has assembled a strong team for the meeting and can take the opener with ANQUETTA who sets a useful standard on his debut second at Warwick last month. A price gapper in the first race in Anquetta has at least had a run albeit in soft ground at Warwick. Is this an advantage on slow running Southwell? As mentioned above, the key determinant with bumpers is the betting market, but as things stand Anquetta is a price gapper, is one of only 3 horses under 14/1 and appears at 4/9 with some bookmakers. 3 horses are 50/1 or bigger and should play no part,reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place. 1.09 to place relays his chances given the profile of this race As you will see today, this could be a Henderson/Geraghty benefit day if the betting is any guide. 100 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Benartic, 9/2 Di Kaprio, 7/1 Shoegazer, 10/1 Bow Badger, Mr Windmill, 14/1 Lord Equalizer, Premier Article, 33/1 Nothing Ventured, So Sauvage, 100/1 Blazing Bouncer, Ouest Eclair.
Another price gapper in this race for the Henderson/Geraghty combination sees Benartic as fav and he has placed twice in good ground .A few more runners than the first race. Not run since April 2009 this horse so a slight niggle there. Place only market is illiquid at present. 240 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Line Freedom, 3/1 Poppy Come Running, 6/1 Alpine Breeze, 16/1 Lesanda, Mabel Tasman, 20/1 Black Annie, Osmosia, 33/1 Foxy Gale, She´s Sassy, 50/1 Dancing Legend, 66/1 Berrydale Covert, Brixen, Detroit Red, Millie Jay.
|
FOOTBALL
There are some interesting cup games today and some rather obvious choices. Roma beat Treviano last night when priced a 1/5 which should be replicated by a Milan side today priced at 1/7 with Ladbrokes at home v Novara.
Team news is vital as ever so do look at the Milan website - a strong enough line up will suffice - a 3pm kick off should allow team news to be up on the Milan website by lunchtime http://www.acmilan.com
3pm - Greek Cup football returns with Panathanaikos at home to Pierikos. 1.13 , like Paris St Germain's and Anorthosis's odds, signifies GOALS, and the expectation again with such odds is 4 or more ( Paris scored 5 and were priced at 1.17, and Anorthosis scored 4 and were priced 1.14)
As ever, team news vital - http://www.pao.gr/en/ - but really a team of this stature , at this price, at home, should score 3 at the very minimum.Pierikos are , I think, in the 3rd Division so they should be outclassed even by a weakened Panathanaikos side.
Bursapor at 330pm and Fenerbache at 630pm are 2 sides priced at 1.2 in the Turkish Cup and of course are, if strongest sides play, much stronger AND at home
745pm sees Liverpool take on Reading in the FA Cup - team news would be good against a Reading side who have been ok awway from home, BUT when meeting Newcastle and West Brom have conceded 3 goals in each game. This should guide us to a strong Liverpool line up's likely scoreline. Play Stoke away on Saturday so perhaps a slightly weakened side tonight.
TENNIS
S Williams v Dushevina 1-13 - 230am - priced 1.13 last time and won 6-1 6-2 in sets. A reliable bet I would argue pre Aussie Open. Dare not show any weakness
SHORTLIST
It would seem, from the last few days, that football teams priced at 1.18 or lower , are reliable betting propositions and expectation is or 3+ goals from those short priced sides.Panathanaikos look a realistic proposition to be trusted at this price
7 wins in 8 in the league show AC Milan are in rude health and psychologically, they'd like o keep that going against a much poorer quality Novara who play in the Liga Pro Prima Divisione - it is the old Seria C ( 2 leagues below Seria A)
Faith too in Serena Williams given the timing of the matches as a warm up for the Australian Open and the 1.13 should see a replication of the demolition at the same price a couple of nights ago.
1230 SOUTHWELL looks a very interesting race for place only backing given the 3 big priced outsiders, and the very well backed Anquetta as favourite.
Benartic is another price gapper in the 100 Southwell for the same Geraghty/Henderson combination.
Line Freedom in the 240 Southwell is a " tough nut to crack" despite conceding weight all around and looks another good place only contender for the Geraghty/Henderson combination.
615 KEMPTON, certainly from a probability perspective, offers the best place only candidate of the day in Admiral Cochrane - 6lb penalty to carry today but with original 2nd and 4th favourites becoming non runners, this becomes a 6 horse race for 3 places.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Whose odds can I trust today? Well, I would say, in the football, that Panathanaikos are worthy of support at 1.13 given , like Paris St Germain and Anorthosis, they are playing at home, and against vastly inferior opposition.
Given the fact that the 2 teams mentioned above both scored 4+ goals and were priced similarly to Panathanaikos, then perhaps a risk can be taken on over 2.5 goals at 1.57 ( this presumes that Panathanaikos will be the ones scoring all of the goals)In their last 3 home games in the league against stronger opposition than Pierikos, they have scored 3, 4 and 4 goals.
78% of home games have finished over 2.5 goals.
REMEMBER, though, that this was with the full league first team - will this be the case with the Cup ?
The odds tell us to expect goals.
Anquetta in the 1230 Southwell looks great for the places. Here's the argument for that one
- 8 runner race now and 3 places
- price gapper who has been well backed now into 4/9 in places
- last run 6th December so fresh
- soft ground run at Warwick hints that the horse can handle Southwell's peculiarities
- there are 3 horses at 50/1 or bigger who should play no part at all reducing the competitive field to 5, 3 of whom will place
- Geraghty/Henderson combination - check out the stats for these 2
Barry Geraghty shows a 57% strike-rate (4-7) on his rides in the last fortnight showing a £7.87 profit
Nicky Henderson and Barry Geraghty have won four times from their last six runners
240 Southwell sees Line Freedom. Of interst as a potential " hard to beat " candidate and these generally place - " a tough nut to crack" this one, so says Spotlight.
615 Kempton - will yesterday's exertions have taken anything out of Admiral Cochrane? Won yesterday. Has placed in last 6 all weather runs, and placed 3rd of 11 and 2nd of 10 in both recent Kempton runs.
With the 2nd and 4th favourites non runners, this is a 50/50 race with 6 runners and 3 places, making life a lot easier for Admiral to place than would have been the case with a full compliment.
Joe Fanning takes the ride here . 6lb penalty to carry today and the fact that, with handicaps, recent opponents could turn the form around.
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