I will opt for Clear Sailing to place in the 100 Lingfield at 1.18 in a race where only 7 runners run and there are still 3 places. The hope is he maintains the 32121 form of his last 5 runs, and replicates last win over today's distance, under today's jockey, at today's venue. I think it will be a surprise if he is beaten by 3 horses in this 7 runner race. I hope I have made the right choice as Greyfrisrchorista also appeals.
Man Utd at 1.18 look strong today also. We saw last week that 1.18 shots win and win well, and I hope this is replicated today
Pity about the non runner but I know some of you backed Soccerjackpot to win in a 2 horse race.
As this is a Saturday I do like to look at the football ,and although I promised a renewed focus on place only backing, sometimes there are solid football bets on a Saturday and Sunday.
FOOTBALL
1230 HAMILTON V RANGERS - 1.44 - these 2 meet 3 times in quick succession. 3-3 in the Cup recently. Now we're back in the league. Of interest was the 2-0 lead that Rangers took that day. Boyd was injured during that game and if he's missing today then I would be apprehensive about backing Rangers.Hamilton have beaten 3rd and 5th at home, but lost 4-1 away to Rangers, 2-1 and 2-0 home and away to Celtic
Boyd will be back in the middle of February - not good news for goal backers given his imperious recent form
1245 - Stoke v Liverpool - Stoke at home are great against those 9th and over in the league but have lost at home to 1st ,2nd and 8th.
Liverpool we all know about - beat Stoke 4-0 at Anfield - have won 3 of their last 5 which isn't too bad. Interestingly have lost away to 9th and 11th ( Stoke are 10th)
Liverpool are a mighty price today considering the head to heads, but Torres is below par with his threatening hernia.
230 HAmburg v Freiburg - 1.45 - 4th v 13th. 5wins, 2 draws and 2 losses at home. Against teams around Freiburg have been convincing at home -around 3-1.
Poor recent home form though - last 5 home matches - win, draw, lose, lose, draw. Not convincing.
3pm Celtic v Falkirk - 1.19 - Celtic I am sure will be aware of Boyd's absence and will be an evn stronger bet if Rangers falter in the earlier kick off. Epic 3-3 at Falkirk BUT Celtic were ahead in that game ( NOTE TO TRADERS)
Have drawn against 1st, 5th and 8th at home. Have won last 4 at home bar draw against Rangers which I suppose was not a surprise.
Against 3 of top 4 ,have lost away 4-1, 2-0, and 2-1.
3pm Chelsea v Sunderland - 1.25 - won all at home bar 3-3 draw v Everton ( when they were comfortably ahead - again note to traders). Lost Essien, Kalou and Drogba so where are the goals going to come from? Old King Cole? Fat Frank? Sturridge?
Recent Chelsea form is poor - 1 loss , 3 draws and 2 wins.
BEat Sunderland at their place.
Very poor away form for Sunderland is perhaps the reason Chelsea are 1.25 despite the losses in personnel.
Drawn 3 and lost 4 of last 7.
3p Man Utd v Burnley - 1.18 - we have learnt this week that these odds usually mean goals ( over 2.5 goals minimum) - remember Paris St Germain, Panathanaikos , Hibs . 1-0 loss to Villa and 2-2 draw v Sunderland the only blemishes at home for Utd. Against Burnley away lost 1-0 (down to Coyle and home tactics) but against teams around Burnley ,Man Utd have won 2-0 and 3-0 at home - this is a guide ( along with the price) as to expected scoreline all things being equal.
New manager syndrome for Burnley and this new manager syndrome can sometimes produce unexpected improvement.
Burnley have lost all away bar 3-3 draw with Man City. Against Chelsea they lost 3-0. Man Utd will be wary of the losses of Drogba and Kalou for Chelsea, so without being affected by African Cup of NAtions absentees, will want to win.
3pm Spurs v Hull - 1.29 - Stoke and Wolves reverberate in my ear - 2 1-0's at Spurs . Will Hull replicate this? Looking at their away form, that's a big NO!!
Have conceded 2 in 8 of their 10 away games , losing all of them - 3 away draws - most prominent v City. Exactly the same price as the Wolves and Stoke home matches - surely lightning cannot strike, ermm, thrice?
630pm - Egypt v Mozambique - 1.38 - such an unpredictable tournament but Egypt should surely make a breakthrough?
7pm- Athletico v Real MAdrid - contrasting home form for Bilbao - losing against those in top 10 at home, but winning against those outside the top 10.
Real have only lost v Sevilla and BArcelona and these 2 are not a surprise. Would love to see Higuan play today for Real as he can give them the very real chance of scoring first.
8pm - Lille v Paris St Germain - Lille continue to astound - again they scored 3 in their most recent match .This makes it, to my reckoning, 8 or 9 matches on the trot where they have scored 3 or more.
I think Lille might be missing some African Cup of nations candidates
HORSE RACING
1225 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Braveheart Move, 9/4 Watergate, 4/1 Anak, Ciceron, 10/1 Luthien, 66/1 Abulharith, Douchkette, Mallorey, 100/1 Sir John.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Braveheart Move and WATERGATE are the only two - at 33-1 - with a Triumph Hurdle quote. The former was significantly the better on the Flat but the ground is a possible concern and Watergate, who was put forward as a dark horse for Cheltenham by his trainer, might be the one. |
2 newcomers are 1st and 2nd fav - Walsh/Nicholls return and Watergate is fav. Braveheart Move has McCoy onboard.
9 horse race - 4 horses are 50/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted reducing the field to 5, 3 will place. 1.34 to place for Watergate - "put up as a dark one for the Triumph by the trainer" - do we trust these words of Nicholls? If so, then this is a good bet in a race where 4 of the 9 are 50/1 or bigger
Ground is soft/ heavy in places
100 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Clear Sailing, 100/30 Cupid´s Glory, 7/1 Kindlelight Blue, Laurie Grove, 10/1 Hold The Bucks, 11/1 Awatuki, 12/1 Head Down,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Clear Sailing is the proven in-form performer after his gutsy C&D win last week but he could be vulnerable if either Kindlelight Blue or CUPID'S GLORY happened to return to anything approaching their best. |
Clear sailing has been superb in this lowly grade. 32121 last 5 races - last 3 have been claimers.
7 runners now and hopefully 3 places -4 horses under 16/1 the ones to focus on? 1.18 to place in a race of 7 runners and 3 places
120 HUNTINGDON
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Tazbar, 9/4 Ginolad, 8/1 Midnight Chase, 66/1 Grenoli.
| DIOMED VERDICT: TAZBAR has no Long Run to worry about this time and should make no mistake. |
One of those races - 3 fighting for 2 places. Tazbar the obvious candidate. 1.16 to place - illiquid betting market.3 horse race and 2 places here - he puts in a clear round and he only seems to have to avoid getting beaten by Midnight Chase to place
135 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/15 Understory, 11/4 Major Maximus, 15/2 Sweet Avon, 25/1 Rightcar Joan,
| DIOMED VERDICT: A weak maiden which appears to revolve around Mark Johnston's newcomer UNDERSTORY. The betting should give an idea of the degree of confidence behind him. |
I hope you have seen this week why I hold Joe Fanning in such high regard. He teams up with his master today on a newcomer who, at 1/2 ,is fancied but is a debutant ( ie handle surface? run green?) 1.16 to place - faith in the market here and the connections rather than any proven ability
310 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Atlantic Story, 3/1 Aeroplane, 5/1 Eisteddfod, 12/1 Carcinetto.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ATLANTIC STORY is a smart performer on the AW and if he can reproduce anything close to his latest C&D second, he will be very hard to beat. |
My old mate Aeroplane returns but it is Atlantic Story who is of interest - a " very hard to beat" candidate here in a 4 runner, 2 the place race. Hoping Carcinetto runs as a 14/1 shot should. Frank Spencer in the saddle can be viewed positively or negatively - 1.2 to place in a 50/50 race is a very tempting price.
Caution - could become a tactical affair
410 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Greyfriarschorista, 3/1 Into Wain, 11/2 Tilsworth Glenboy, 16/1 Baggsy, 20/1 Pascalina, 33/1 Big Eric, 40/1 Madame Bonaparte,
| DIOMED VERDICT: Unless there's something above average among the newcomers, GREYFRIARSCHORISTA has been found a feasible opportunity. Tilsworth Glenboy is next best. |
Greyfriarschorista was mentioned on 4th Jan by me in analysis and comment where he managed a 4th place. Another Johnston/ Fanning combination here and the 4/6 is now 4/9 in the live betting ( always a superb confidence booster )
Alhaque's race recently is ample proof that, in an ideal world, I would be making any decisions regarding maiden races near the off because then winners like Buxted will unravel themselves.
As things stand, only 3 horses under 20/1 here and, despite showing 8 runners in the Racing Post ( and one non runner) Betfair are paying only 2 places.
Inter wain is he most prominent debutant ( 2nd fav) and it is hoped that this will, indeed, concern just the 3 under 20/1 and the sight of Joe Fanning can ensure a 1st or 2nd place.
Still considered for me despite the 2 places only. 1.15 to place
SHORTLIST
Football wise.
Man Utd leap out at me at 1.18 versus Burnley at home and these odds usually precede a comfortable win an an over 2.5 goals bet.
The same can be said about Celtic who are at home to Falkirk today. With Kris Boyd injured for Rangers ( he really is their goal machine and ,I would suggest, the reason Rangers have been the form team recently), Celtic see bottom side Falkirk as a must win.
3-3 at Falkirk showed the away side do play some decent stuff. Celtic that day should have won easily so this game perhaps better approached with trading in mind should Celtic take the lead.
1.18 over 1.5 goals is perfectly reasonable and involves both sides.
1225 KEMPTON - I am taken by the comments of Paul Nicholls regarding Watergate as a possible dark horse for the Triuph Hurdle ( cue unseats rider at first) - a 2 mile hurdle so over nice and quick - 4 of the 9 are 50/1 or bigger leaving Watergate 1.37 to a) not fall and b) not get beaten by 2 others in a perceived 5 horse race
100 LINGFIELD - of interest as 7 runners and 3 places and Clear Sailing has inished 32121 in his last 5 . On form and the question is, is there any reason that this horse will not give his running and suddenly bomb out and get beaten by 4 others in a 7 horse race?
analysis of last run
"his first outing at the course and he will surely win more of these types of races for his new stable."
Likely to make all again? Wo n over today's Course and distance under today's rider last time.
1.18 to place is reasonable
310 LINGFIELD - mention for Atlantic Story because of the trigger words " will be very hard to beat" - this is qualified by saying that he should replicate his latest run. 4 horses and 2 places here, Aeroplane returns as 2nd fav and 2 recent 2nd places show he is in good fettle.
Could become a tactical affair, but we have a 50/50 chance of a selection placing.1.2 to place
Concern is Frank Spencer in the saddle - on a good day I hope today!!
410 LINGFIELD - Greyfriarscholar mustsurely have a great chance today - battered into 4/9 aas I write, representing the Johnston/Fanning Combination who can ususally be relied upon, only niggle is the 2 places and the close proximity of a newcomer in the betting
Only 3 under 20/1 and 1.15 to place in the first 2.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
I know the main focus must be on the football, but last week, I hope, showed you, that in the right circumstances, we can trust sub 1.20 bets . Man Utd and Celtic are both at home and are both priced at 1.18 .
I feel these odds are justified given the opposition and the fact these 2 are at home.
100 LINGFIELD - I hate claimers generally - low grade and sometime unpredictable but am taken by Clear Sailing's 32121 recent form ( last 3 class 6 claimers , last win at this venue, under this jockey, over this distance) 3 horses are 20/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted ( although this is a claimer!!) which, if horses run to their prices, leaves 4 running for 3 places. and 1.18 to NOT get beaten by 3 horses in a 7 runner race a decent bet?
The rest of the races are 2 the place races which suggest that we are looking for a horse to WIN this race, as there is so little margin for error.
Of the remaining races,
410 LINGFIELD - Greyfriarschorista is the one that really stands out for me. In a maiden granted, and with 4/1 2nd fav a newcomer, if the market is accurate then this is a race involving the 3 under 20/1 and Grey has been backed into 4/9 favouritism for Johnston/Fanning. Handled Wolves so no reason he won't handle Lingfield.
CONCLUSION
If we are looking for bets where it would be an absolute shock if a team were beaten/ a horse not places, then surely Man Utd failing to win at Old Trafford against Burnley would fit into this category. 1.18 suggest goals too.
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