So please wait until 6pm or after before placing bets.
Arganil won and Aeroplane placed - it was a 2 horse race but the other 2 horses were i close proximity.
Of the shortlisters, Boogie Waltzer won and Turf time placed. Alhawy shows again that you simply cannot trust runners in selling stakes races at all. 6 runners and Alhawy was unplaced in a race which paid out on the first 3 places!
Athletico Madrid did fancy a Cup run with a good result
110 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Alhaque, 5/2 Buxted, 11/2 Cozy Tiger, 8/1 Dovedon Earl, 25/1 Peinture De Guerre, 33/1 Allperksonice, 66/1 Happy Fleet, Jolly Cooper.
| DIOMED VERDICT: ALHAQUE is the obvious one but he has proved frustrating in maidens and is probably not one to bank on. Money for Buxted on his belated debut would be interesting. |
An interesting first race, but alas I suspect another non too big place only price. This race sees a betting forecast favourite whose price has been battered into 4/9 in the live market - a great sign of confidence.
8 runners - 3 are 50/1 and over
CAUTION - a maiden race with 4 debutants ( 3 of them are 50/1 or bigger) - will any of these debutants prove to be dark horses?
Alhaque has 2 consecutive 2nd places so is getting closer in similar maiden company
Just to make life a little easier, Alhaque has not run since 1st October 2009, and has not run at Lingfield before.
The price shortening in the live market recounts confidence that he is ready .
Watch out for Peinture de Guerre who is 14/1 in places ( check out his betting forecast price)
1.1 to place - the place only market agrees too, but compare that with Arganil who was running in ,effectively, a 3 horse race for 2 places
140 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Fivefold, 9/2 Freddie´s Girl, Minortransgression, 6/1 Darshonin, 8/1 Monterosso, 10/1 Mary´s Pet, Oceans Edge, 25/1 Purple Gallery, 66/1 Southern Breeze, 80/1 Ceto,
| DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should provide a few clues but it may be advisable to concentrate on FIVEFOLD and Minortransgression. The latter is a likely improver but Fivefold sets a decent standard and is due a change of luck. |
Another maiden race and a price gapper in Fivefold . He maintains favouratism . Expected improvement for the Johnston/Fanning Monterosso today? He has leapfrogged into 2nd favourite.
145 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Stonecrabstomorrow, 5/2 Total Impact, 9/2 Flash McGahon, 11/2 Mocha Java, 10/1 Kings Ace, 16/1 Conjecture, 33/1 Owed, 100/1 Favouring.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It's hard to get away from STONECRABSTOMORROW who is 3-3 in claiming grade, comes out best on adjusted ratings and made a successful return from a layoff under this rider here last week. |
8 runners and 3 places and "hard to get away from" Stonecrabstomorrow - lifetime on the all weather he has won 5, 2nd 8 times and 3rd once - only 4 races unplaced. Won after a layoff last race without today's jockey raising the whip.
Has the look of a 4 horse race and Stones is a consistent sort, but for how long will he remain so consistent?
2 horses are 66/1 or bigger. Only 4 horses under 10/1 and these 4 are a little congested at the head of the market indicating none can be safely discounted.
The jockey is an unknown to me, and claims 7 lbs today. He did win on Stones last time out . His form is a little poor but he is learning. This I think is negated by the fact he has, as said, won on this horse at this venue.
Stonecrabstomorrow is 1.36 to place.
240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Winning Show, 100/30 Calzaghe, 4/1 Prince Charlemagne, 11/2 Chanrossa, 6/1 Sunset Boulevard, 12/1 Stumped, 14/1 Naheell, 25/1 Choral Festival.
| DIOMED VERDICT: CALZAGHE is likely to prove hard to beat if the improvement he has shown over hurdles recently in reflected in his form back in this sphere. Winning Show is an obvious threat. |
6 horses now and 3 places - follow the market here? Winning show is fav and 1.31 to place. Calzaghe has been superb over hurdles and, as Diomed says, if translating this back to the flat, will NOT get beaten by 3 other horses in a 6 horse race ( 1.64 to place)
There is one clear outsider here and he is 20/1 - hopefully can be discounted?
The rest of the afternoon card is taken up with 2 the place races which look very tight indeed.
620 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Soccerjackpot, 13/8 Appalachian Trail, 4/1 Indian Skipper, 14/1 Bolodenka, 33/1 Painted Sky.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Both SOCCERJACKPOT and Appalachian Trail are useful sorts to be running in a race like this, with preference for the top weight who should be able to dominate proceedings under a rider who knows him well. |
Still paying out on 2 places and this is yet another prime example of a probability race. 3 horses remain ( no point putting up place prices as the market is obviously illiquid with some 7 hours to go to race start)
Soccerjackpot 8/11 to win
Indian Skipper ( remember him from Arganil's race?) 6/4
Bolodenka 8/1
Surely with Appalachian Trail being a non runner, Soccerjackpot must have an outstanding chance of placing - or to put it another way, NOT get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race.
Indian skipper was beaten into 3rd of 4 behind Arganil and Aeroplane yesterday, BUT was close to these 2.
Bolodenka originally a 14/1 shot is still outsider at 8/1
This looks like an outstanding opportunity today.
OTHER SPORTS
730- BAyern Munich v Hoffenheim - 1.47 . Unbeaten since 3rd October in the league with 6 wins and 4 draws.
Unbeaten at home all season with 5 wins and 4 draws.
15 goals scored in last 4 matches signals a return to form.
Only 2 losses all season.
Hoffenheim are 7th and against top 6 (that they have played at home) have drawn 3 times so a degree of caution and a suggestion that a lay of Hoffenheim might be safer as it covers the draw) and at 9.2 will be an equivalent of a 1.11 back bet
Hoffenheim have played 4 of the top 9 away and lost 3 and drew one, hinting that a step into playing those who inhabit the upper echelons of the Bundsliga is a step too far at present.
Contrast their form to bayern's since 3rd October - lost 5, won 3, drawn 2..
Last 4 remember Bayern scored 15 goals, last 4 games for Hoff and they lost 2 and drew one, scoring 3!!
A game I would likely either lay Hoffenheim or back Bayern and trade if they hopefully score the first goal.
SHORTLIST
110 LINGFIELD - Alhaque is one of those horses whose betting forecast price is considerably shorter in the live betting market which is usually a very strong signal.
A maiden race with 4 debutants - 3 are 50/1 or bigger, if he is sufficiently fit from his break since 1st October 2009, there is not reason he can replicate the last 2 2nd places and place for us in this - only 3 under 20/1 (Peinture de Guerre has drifted back to 20/1)
145 SOUTHWELL - Stonecrabstomorrow is ultra consistent and won after a lay off under today's jockey - a hint that none of the front 4 can be discounted so faith that Stonecrabstomorrow is not the one who does not place - a good place price this one if wishing to risk .1.33 to place.
Personally I am a little uneasy with this jockey - a 7lb claimer and an unknown name for me
620 WOLVES - surely the best probability bet of the day - with Appalachian Trail a non runner here, Soccerjackpot seems to have an outstanding chance of not being beaten by 2 others in a 3 horse race.
Of course it can happen, but probability wise we have a greater chance of Soccerjackpot placing i the first 2 than not.
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