Cheltenham was best left alone yesterday with ground concerns meriting 3 separate inspections throughout the morning and early afternoon so a NO BET day was a wise move.
Today, weather permitting, sees some obvious giants v minnows in the Cup and the return of La Liga and Barcelona.
So it's with the football that we will start
3pm Bolton v Lincs - 1.28 -4 draws, one win and one loss for Bolton in their last 6 games enough to get Gary Megson the boot, and now could be a good time to side with Bolton, with caretaker manager looking to stamp his authority.Losses at home in PRemiership have been against 2 of the top 4 and Sunderland and Blackburn.Lincoln City are 3rd from bootm in league 2 and will realistically be expecting little from today's FA Cup match, unless managerless Bolton Fa cup this game.
3pm Everton v Carlisle 1.32 15th in League one come to Everton , unbeaten in last 5, BUT 4 draws. Everton at home have only lost to top 4 sides. CArlisle unbeaten i n last 5 with 3 wins and 2 0-0 draws.
3pm Fulham v Swindon 1.32
Swindon manager brimming with confidence
"On any given day, any team can beat another," continued the boss, who managed Sheffield Wednesday in the top-flight.
"I don't expect it to happen but if for any reason that Fulham have a really poor day then we can take advantage."
Swindon have been on a great run with 6 wins in their last 8 games in LEague One ( other 2 were a draw and a loss)
Only 4 losses all season sees them 6th in League One.
Take on 9th in Premiership who have only lost 2 of last 11 ( to Chelsea and Birmingham City)
On a 7 game unbeaten home run with 5 wins including Man Utd and Liverpool. Surely Swindon will not surprise if First team is played
3pm Stoke v York City 1.33 - the game that ,perhaps, fills me with least confidence purely because it's Stoke City.York are 3rd in the 5th tier and on a 7 game winning streak so confidence is going to be high. Stoke are on a 3 game losing streak, but at home ,against those 10th or lower, have won 4 and drawn 2.3pm Sunderland v Barrow 1.18 - weather may be a factor here as it is in the sunny North East, but surely a strong home side ,with onfire Premiership striker Bent, will be far too much for the Barrow Boys
3pm Tottenham v Peterborough 1.19 - ditto with the Spuds with their attacking force littered with England squad players. I want to see Lennon play and Defoe . Should put this lot to the sword. Peterborough are bottom of the Championship and surely have other priorities? Have not won away from home, and beaten by 2 goals by both West Brom and NEwcastle which is a good guide to what Spurs should achieve AT THE VERY MINIMUM!SPurs home record blemished by 2 shock 1-0's (Wolves and Stoke) and loss to Man Utd.
Spurs have never drawn at home, so if they score first, this should sound the death knell for Peterborough.
I would expect goals here too
515pm Reading v Liverpool 1.43 - depends on team news this game. Torres playing will appeal greatly - his class grabbing 3 points latest and today against a side who have drawn far too many at home and only drawn 1
7pm Barcelona v Villareal 1.37 - unbeaten at home-have scored 1st in 93.33% of all of their games ( great for a trading angle then)
Villareal have won 6 of their last 8 so confidence high.HAVE lost to Real Madrid at home 2-0 and Sevilla away 3-2.Tend to struggle against top 7 sides.
1.22 over 1.5 goals.
815pm Oliveirense v Porto 1.32 - Cup game - not much known about Oliveirense OR whether this is a 2 legged affair ( could quite easily determine motivation in this game.)
Porto only beaten 3 times away in league ( 1-0's all and 2 of those matches against 1st and 2nd)
All of the above analysis must be preceded with a warning regarding team news. First team squads for the Premiership sides must equal wins I'm sure.
HORSE RACING
1225 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Spring Breeze, 9/2 Cumbrian Knight, 6/1 Ramvaswani, 8/1 Baltimore Patriot, K´Gari, 12/1 William´s Way, 14/1 Ingenue, Russian Invader, 16/1 Global Strategy, Jenny Soba, 25/1 Mujamead, Transfered, 33/1 Treeko, 100/1 Delorain.
| DIOMED VERDICT: SPRING BREEZE who has done well over hurdles for this yard and was second over this trip on his only previous try here, is preferred to Cumbrian Knight. |
3 non runners here and Spring Breeze fits into my price gapper in a class 6 0-65 handicap system , and these candidates tend to place with regularity
Concerns over trip ( 2 miles) and amateur rider status of race 1.36 to place and hardening all the time
100 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Jaunty Flight, 5/2 Amber Brook, Carole´s Legacy, 7/1 Easter Legend, 20/1 Alasi, Dansimar.
| DIOMED VERDICT: An ordinary event for the grade in which JAUNTY FLIGHT is preferred to Amber Brook and Carole's Legacy. |
Just a mention here for Alasi, 20/1 in the betting forecast and now 7/1 in the live betting_potential market mover or the betting forecaster was way off the mark?
130 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 George Nympton, 3/1 Watergate, 4/1 Anak, 8/1 Riskareas, 12/1 Alhaque, Orsippus, 66/1 Mallorey, 100/1 Abulharith.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Watergate is an interesting newcomer to hurdling for the champion trainer but he will have his work cut out to match strides with GEORGE NYMPTON who sets a good standard on form and represents a yard which is flying high.# Potential " hard to beat" candidate in George Nympton takes on Nicholls?Walsh newcomer Watergate NOTE - Sandown is now off due to frost so the 2 races above naturally are ignored. |
SHORTLIST
This looks very much like a footballing day today with frost playing havoc with the best card of the day at Sandown.
The only horse racing candidate is in the 1225 Southwell in Spring Breeze, who, as mentioned, falls into my "price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap" system and these horses place a huge percentage of the time ( infact win quite often)
Of concern is the apprentice jockey who has not ridden the horse before and the race distance of 2 miles on the flat which requires good pace judgement.
BUT, that said, the market likes this one and it is strongly backed making the 1.36 to place of some appeal
That's it for the horses, with heavy ground at Cork and a tough all weather card at Lingfield
FOOTBALL - TEAM NEWS IS OF PARAMOUNT IMPORTANCE AND IS LIMITED AT TIME OF WRITING
3pm Fulham v Swindon - 1.33 - mainly due to dismissive attitude of manager, and Fulham's strong home form. Andy Johnson likely to return up front which is a good sign
3pm - Sunderland v Barrow - 1.18 - of concern to me is the weather conditions in the North East - I am presuming they have the worst of the frost etc.
From the website re team news
"
Top scorer Darren Bent will play against Barrow this weekend as Steve Bruce takes no chances against the Conference outfit.
Sunderland's 13-goal striker has bagged three times in his last two games and will continue up front against the Bluebirds at the Stadium of Light.
Speaking in his pre-match press conference, Bruce confirmed that those who played at Blackburn are "likely" to appear again."
Very good news for Sunderland backers that the Black Cats will have what looks like a strong side out.
3pm Spurs v Peterborough 1.19 - similarly priced to the Sunderland match and the fact Peterborough are in such a precarious league position means that a good Spurs side at home should surely wrap this up
No Aaron Lennon to terrorise the right wing is a mighty blow to Spurs' backers. Defoe has a slight foot injury niggle and I would like to see him, but with time constraints, I cannot wait indefinitely for team news to filter through and must go with what I have now.
815pm - Oliverense v Porto - 1.32 away - Porto really should have too much for Oliverense here if fielding a full squad but this is the Portugeuse Cup.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
Well the odds tell you there'll be goals and a comfortable victory and quite clearly the Sunderland and Spurs matches stand out today, with preference at time of writing for Sunderland given the likelihood of a strong starting XI ( Steve Bruce states it will be along the lines of the team tat played recently in the Premiership - he also hinted at a start for Bent which is superb)
Spurs should win easily too with Pavlyuchenko and Keane waiting in the wings, but the absence of Lennon and likely absence of Defoe are slight negatives.
How bouyed will Peterborough be by their recent 4-4 clawback from 4-0 down at half time?
The double on Spurs and Sunderland pays out 1.34 which looks reasonable enough on Betfair Multiples
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