Chelsea won well and interestingly Pete the Feat, the early market mover I noticed, came 2nd at 28/1 by 2 lengths - stable gamble so nearly landed
Well the horse racing is hit again today, and will likely be greatly affected this coming week, in stark contrast to this time last year when I had a bet every day in January.
One card remains and that is on the all weather at Wolverhampton - all class 5 and class 6 , 4 handicaps, 1 apprentice handicap, a claimer, maiden and a seller - YIKES!!
305 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 High Constable, 5/2 Greyfriarschorista, 4/1 Beyond, 8/1 Charlie Smirke, 10/1 Silken Sands, 20/1 Giant Strides, 33/1 Big Eric, 50/1 Boxer Shorts, 66/1 Barony.
| DIOMED VERDICT: HIGH CONSTABLE is given the chance to recover debut losses but market interest in Beyond would be worth heeding. |
Interesting maiden this one. Charlie Smirke is a non runner , leaving 4 only under 20/1 in the betting forecast.
In the live market, high Constable is odds on ( maybe a reaction to an 8/1 non runner) , and is one of only 4 horses under 16/1. Although 3rd of 7 looks bad, he was only beaten a head and half a length , so was competitive, and given that was his first run, he should improve?
3 of the 8 runners are 40/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted.
Joe Fanning takes the ride on Greyfriarschorista and I have mentioned that when he's on a market leader for Mark Johnston, it usually preempts a good run.
Market leaders have both had one average run, and 3rd fav is a debutant, so the usual maiden conundrum. Will the market leaders consent to run as per their prices? Will the debutant handle the surface?
High Constable 1.11 to place
Greyfriarscholar 1.4 to place
435 WOLVES
| DIOMED VERDICT: SHAKE ON IT was a very cheeky winner on his first visit to Wolverhampton last month and has been rated higher in the past, so there's every chance he can defy a 4lb rise. |
A class 6 0-60 handicap and a slight price gapper ( I would have preferred a shorter price about shake on it than the 5/2)
Jamie Jones takes the ride again. Not the kind of price gapper system bet that the previous horse in a class 6 was. Interesting all the same, and I have mentioned before that these types of profiles do place consistently ( although the price gap tends to be far more prominent than in this case)
Here is the Racing Post analysis for Shake on It's last run
"SHAKE ON IThad not won for over two years and is not the most reliable but scored with a fair bit more in hand than the winning margin suggested. However this was not a strong race and his record suggests he would not be one to take too short a price about next time."
Makes that as clear as mud then!! If not reliable, will he still place? Shake on it 1.64 to place
505 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Blue Lyric, 9/4 Lisahane Bog, 13/2 Itsthursdayalready, 7/1 Sternlight, 8/1 Layla´s Lad, 16/1 Push Me, 20/1 Ramamara.
| DIOMED VERDICT: It usually pays to follow improving young horses who are on a roll and, in that respect, it's difficult to look beyond the progressive pair BLUE LYRIC and Lisahane Bog, who are both unbeaten in handicap company. |
A 7 runner 2 the place race is not ideal for place backers as we have to be pretty much spot on, but I mention this race as the trainer of Lisahane Bog told the Racing Post that he only has Blue Lyric to beat in this race.
Blue lyric has won twice on the trot, Lisahane Bog has won 3 times on the trot - winning sequences always end in handicaps, and will do for one of these, but will it stop them dominating and both placing.
The market is strongly in favour of Blue Lyric at time of writing but the 3 horses at 8/1 and 9/1 look ominous and cannot be discounted.
Blue Lyric 1.52 to place
Lisahane Bog 2.26 to place
FOOTBALL
230pm (AT LADBROKES) -Tanzania v Ivory Coast - 2/9 away side. A friendly before the African Cup of Nations so this may be an exercise in seeing the squad for Ivory Coast, OR they will be playing their strongest 11 ,and in this latter case, they should win with the personnel they have.
5pm Moroka Swallows v Wolfsburg - 1.49 (illiquid markets on Betfair at time of writing)
This looks like a PR exercise with last year's champions taking on a South African side
The match is in running, and quite simply ,if Wolfsburg can be arsed at all, and play their strongest 11, this is going to be shooting practice for them
Here is some information on the game from the Moroka Swallows website
"Bundesliga champions VfL Wolfsburg have brought most of their big guns to Port Elizabeth and will unleash them when they face Moroka Swallows in the Volkswagen Challenge Trophy at the Nelson Mandela Metropolitan University on Monday night.
The German giants have included 11 internationals in their 22-man squad and the word from coach Armin Veh is that all 22 players will get some game time against the Birds. Missing are Nigerian striker Obafemi Martins and Algerian Karim Ziani who are on duty with their respective countries for this month's African Nations Cup finals in Angola.
Veh said he was in the dark about Swallows' strengths and weaknesses but he made it clear that he expected a tough challenge. "This is the first of two friendly matches we will play ahead of the restart of the German season and we are taking Swallows seriously," Veh said.
"I would not have accepted this friendly unless I believed they were good and would make us work hard. We are not interested in playing against amateurs so I expect a lot from Swallows on Monday.""
Both teams are sponsored by Volkswagen, hence the meeting in South Africa while the Bundesliga is on its Winter break
Moroka Swallows are 8th in the South Africa league, and all things being equal, should get taught a lesson tonight.
But, as ever, there will likely be wholesale changes in players throughout the game, and we are assured , from the quotes above, that this is NOT the first team that would play in the Bundesliga
If none of this grabs you, you can always go to the Moroka Swallows website and look at their rather fetching cheerleaders.
5pm Cyprus Division 1
Omonia Nicosia v Doxa
1.22 on Betfair NOT IN RUNNING
Despite good head to heads this year in favour of Omonia, there is nothing in their home form to convince me to get involved
DARTS
BDO World Championship 2010 First Round Matches
Adams to beat Fleet - 1.07
Just going by odds here in a difficult day.
SHORTLIST
305 Wolves
High Constable was 3rd of 7 last time out ( in what was an 8 runner race and still was 3 places on Betfair) Beaten 1/2 length and a head into 3rd place, it was a good debut. Very well backed into 1/2 favourite that day so a lot was expected.
Today runs in an 8 runner race, where only 3 horses are under 16/1.
3 horses are 50/1 or bigger which should reduce the competitive field to 5 runners, 3 of whom will place
Greyfriarschorista and Beyond are the 2 other horses under 16/1, the first a representative of the Fanning/Johnston pairing, the 2nd horse a debutant who could be anything.
High Constable maintains his odds on status strongly at time of writing.There is some 1.11 around for him to place in the first 3 on Betfair.
POSITIVES for High Constable
- close to winner in first race
- very well backed that day - odds on again today
- only 3 under 16/1 here makes this a great probability race
- ran at Wolverhampton on sole run
- 3 horses over 50/1 should reduce competitive field to 5, 3 to place
- 4th favourite is a non runner which reduces the rivalry at the head of the market
- maiden race and a horse who has only had one run is automatically expected to replicate that run again
- there are 3 debutants in opposition who could be anything ( albeit 2 at 33/1 and 50/1)
5pm Moroka Swallows v Wolfsburg 1.50 - some made up Volkswagen Challenge Cup a good excuse for the Germans to top up their tans and escape the German winter.
Even a weakened Wolfsburg should be technically far superior to a team 8th in a weak South African " Premier" league.
Wolfsburg love scoring and 89% and 75% Bundesliga stats for over 2.5 goals is very appealing, but of course these are in the heat of battle and not the heat of a Port Elizabeth friendly.
The Betfair markets lack any liquidity really , probably because of the friendly aspect of this game, but personally, I expect Wolfsburg to score first (surely?) and, given the in running status of this match, trade out afterwards.
Remember, remember, this is a friendly and there is no motivation at all.
SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST
It is the 305 Wolves that stands out at time of writing, and High Constable at 1.11 has a great opportunity of coming in the 1st 3 again.
I can't get past Wolfsburg , although friendlies must come with a wealth warning, the in running status of this match allows for trading, and it would be only with trading in mind that I would approach this match, perhaps backing Wolfsburg in the match odds market and hope their class shines, they take the match seriously enough, and with a 40 million euro valued striker, score first.
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