The 350 Wolverhampton would perhaps be my strongest horse bet of the day. Regular readers know that multiple handicap winners eventually falter because the weight eventually anchors them, BUT this is usually shown in the market. BUT in this case Diapason is 4/6 with next best at 5/1. EXTREME CONFIDENCE. If this originally 8 runner race had been 3 places then I would have pounced on this horse to place. As things stand, it is only 2 places which is why I have reluctantly dismissed it.
I am really taken by PSV tonight. They seem to have the requisite motivation to take something from this game ,ad my favoured safe bet would be the lay of Roda, or the backing of over 1.5 goals (to trade)
I don't want to burden you with trading and all the perceived complications that brings, so have called a no bet day.
But, for the record, this PSV match is the one I will be focussing on personally later on. I have not put this up as a bet, because the vast majority of losers during December/January were football picks.
If you feel I have made a strong argument with any of the shortlisters, then feel free to back at your discretion.
The preferred bets came in - Djokovic as I write as just won and as I said in the message
" focus for me would be on Djokovic above the rest". I hope my synopsis helped you avoid Roger Federer and focus on either Djokovic or Davydenko (odds of 1.2 and 1.24 respectively)
"Midnight sees Kindlemann face Davydenko. 1.03 for Davy, twice recent conqueror of Federer and really on top of his game at present. He has brought a new consistency to his game which makes him a backable proposition for 3-0 sets – there is no real money in the market as it is 12+ hours til game time 1.16 at Ladbrokes should act as a guide.
Federer plays this evening , as does Djokovic and both are around 1.16 for 3-0 sets.
These are 1/100 and 1/66 shots in the win market. I would have greater faith in Djokovic to win 3-0 than a slightly stuttering Federer."
Hinton Thunderbolt was poor and finished 3rd of 3 in the probability race. Heavy ground the curse here despite proven form in heavy.
105 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Cadspeed, 7/2 Hellyhunter, 6/1 Midtown Boy, 8/1 Accord Aris, Rock The Bock, 10/1 Case Study, 12/1 Lisrenny Lady, Stress, Supreme All Star, 14/1 Winged Pharina, 20/1 Druim Shamhraidh, 25/1 Run And Dream.
Walsh/Mullins combination on this price gapper, now odds on. A maiden hurdle and heavy ground. Cadspeed has run 2nd twice in heavy ground, but as we saw yesterday, it can be a leveller, as Hinton Thunderbolt had form over chase fences in heavy ground. 1.18 to place
205 NAAS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Alpha Ridge, 9/4 Oscar Looby, 9/2 Beckett Rock, 5/1 Telenor.
BEckett Rock the non runner so it's 3 for 2 places but again heavy over 3 miles 1.21 to place Alpha ridge in an illiquid market. A simple probability bet like yesterday.7th of 9 worrying last time( yes it was in group 1 and this is grade 2) -will Alpha Ridge fall or get beaten by one other horse in this 3 horse race. Heavy ground scuppered yesterdays bet, so I am retiscent about involvement in heavy again today
240 FOLKSTONE
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Lively Fling, 3/1 Open Day, 13/2 Blue Tango, Diktalina, 16/1 Myshkin, 40/1 The Saucy Snipe, 66/1 Maverick´s Magic, 100/1 Six Of Clubs.
| DIOMED VERDICT: LIVELY FLING is the clear pick on both Flat and hurdling form, though the way some of the stable's runners have gone recently sounds a muted cautionary note. Open Day could be the danger if there's market interest. |
A race of 2 halves here. 4 horses under 16/1 should be the ones to focus on. None have handled heavy ground -again making a choice difficult
a few hurdling debutants as well and we do not know how fluid they will be.
Lively fling 1.29 to place
Open day1.53 to place
Blue tango 1.7 to place
Diktalina 1.69 to place
2 of these should place in the first 3 , even 3 of them, but which will falter?
hard to tell given the majority are hurdling debutants/ hurdling novices. The market has not really spoken in favour of one of the top 4 in preference to the others.
350 WOLVES
| DIOMED VERDICT: DIAPASON has shown plenty of improvement for a switch to AW recently and can complete a Wolverhampton hat-trick. |
I was hoping this was 3 places as it was originally 8 runners, but it's only 2 places. Still Diapason has won last twice under this jockey at this venue - he is priced to be competitive again -usually we get a hint from the market when the multiple handicap winners are likely to falter but odds on here and next best 5/1 does show confidence. 1.33 to place - the only horse under evens in the place market.
2 places is the problem here -when backing 2 places we have to be spot on really 1.29 to place and is well regarded in the market for a horse on his handicap hatrick. 4/6 with next best 5/1
Involvement here would have to mean trusting the market to be an accurate reflection that this multiple handicap winner is going to run into the first 2 places. 1.29 now to place
420 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Jan Mayen, 11/4 Riviera Chic, 9/2 Summer Sunrise, 7/1 Major Lawrence, Quarante Deux, 16/1 Giant Strides, 33/1 Kiss ´n Tell.
| DIOMED VERDICT: Both the newcomers need a market check but JAN MAYEN looks sure to improve on her recent narrow Kempton defeat on her belated debut and can go one better. |
Typical of today - another 2 the place race here. Jan Mayen represents Johnston/Fanning and we saw yesterday that their debutants have been faltering in maidens. Volcan D'or the 2nd in a week to run poorly.
BUT Jan Mayen seems to have bucked that trend with a head 2nd in his first outing at Kempton. natural improvement should see him competitive. Watch out for Quarante Deux - a debutant and 2nd fav.
Again, 2 places is the concern here, especially with maidens.2 are 33/1 or bigger reducing the competitiv field to 5, 2 of whom will place. Of concern is the seeming lack of interest ,at time of writing, for jan Mayen - no shortening in odds as yet 1.59 to place and only 2 places does not exude maximum confidence in the market
FOOTBALL
7pm Roda v PSV - 1.46 - this is PSV's game in hand over Twente and that should be motivation enough for a win - 3 points puts them joint 1st in the league with a superior goal difference.
PSV have won all and drawn 3 all season.
At home they have won all bar a 3-3 draw with VVV
Away they have won all bar 2 draws against Twente (top) and Utrecht (6th)
Have already beaten Roda at home 3-0.
Over 1.5 goals has come in all bar 4 matches.
8 game winning streak so far.HAve won their last 8 at home but note 3 of the last 4 home games have finished 1-0 to PSV - a sign that opponents are sussing them out.
This is an away fixture though and PSV have won their last 4 ,scoring 14 goals
With their motivation, this could be a good time to back PSV
745pm - Morton v Celtic - 1.2 - interestingly was 1.12 with Ladbrokes when I looked last night. The loss of 3 1st teamers to Middlesborough perhaps a reason behind a poor performance at home v Falkirk. Morton are in the lower tier and are poor at home this season. Celtic are on the back of 2 1-1's in the league.
TENNIS - although there are some trading opportunities, I did what I set out to do last night and this morning and exploit the gulf in class between the top 5 and the rest. Nadal has had niggles this season and Federer had a wrist problem in Qatar so cannot be trusted to win 3 sets to 0 despite Nadal being 1.02 for his 2nd round match
SHORTLIST
205 NAAS - purely mentioned because this is a probability race like yesterday's where 3 horses are vying for 2 places. Barring falls, one will falter. Which one? As we saw yesterday though, heavy ground can be a leveller here, and like Hinton Thunderbolt, even heavy ground form is no guarantee that the horse will run as his odds indicate.
350 WOLVES - again we have the curse of the 2 to place race. We really need to be spot on and really pick the winner in order to ensure the horse finishes in the first 2.
Diapason is on a Wolverhampton hatrick and has the same jockey on board. He is not priced to end that winning sequence today. Rather with the market showing him 4/6 and next best 5/1, he is expected to complete the hatrick today.
The 1.28 is very enticing based upon the market confidence, but we are vying for 2 places only.
FOOTBALL
7pm PSV are in the driving seat here as far as motivation is concerned for this match. Laying Roda at current 8.8 ( likely to be lower as the day progresses) is the equivalent of a 1.12 bet. This is something that would interest me, as would 1.24 for over 1.5 goals. All bar one of PSV's away games have finished over 1.5 goals .All bar one of Roda's home games have finished over 1.5 goals.
Against top of the table sides at home, Roda have lost 1-2 and drawn 2-2
This makes the lay of Roda a strong bet for me today. Over 1.5 goals deserves due consideration given PSV won 3-0 at home v Roda
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