ONE A DAY 140 SOUTHWELL LORD VICTOR TO PLACE ONLY
Another day of weather hit disruption no doubt
Another day of weather hit disruption no doubt
3 all weather meetings might bring up an opportunity today
1210 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Angle Of Attack, 11/4 Divertimenti, 11/2 Tango Step, 10/1 Admiral Bond, 12/1 Bertbrand, 14/1 Brazilian Brush, Cheshire Rose, 16/1 Top Flight Splash, 25/1 Berrymead, Fulford, 33/1 Gracie´s Games.
DIOMED VERDICT: Probably not as competitive as the numbers suggest and it can pay to concentrate on Angle Of Attack, Tango Step and DIVERTIMENTI.
DIOMED VERDICT: Probably not as competitive as the numbers suggest and it can pay to concentrate on Angle Of Attack, Tango Step and DIVERTIMENTI.
3 non runners are not that significant, the shortest priced being Admiral Bond.
Angle of Attack returned to form last time out , but was this a flash in the pan, or has the horse fallen to a handicap level where he can run up a sequence. After a long losing run, I would prefer to see more consistency. Does have those trigger words " hard to beat" in Spotlight and Diomed. It's a simple little system I have found which easily unearths horses likely to run well. 1.3 to place
Just look for the words " hard to beat" or derivatives thereof in Spotlight's comment
"Angle Of Attack: Plummeted in the handicap over last year or so but made all to end losing run in first-time visor (has been tried in other headgear) over C&D last week; well in despite penalty and similar display will make him hard to beat. "
Can we really trust a winner of a class 7 handicap to be consistent?
Can we really trust a winner of a class 7 handicap to be consistent?
The next race on the card is a class 6 0-52 handicap - now that is low grade stuff!!
There are no prices up at Lingfield so it looks as if that venue has been abandoned
140 SOUTHWELL
ETTING FORECAST: 1/4 Lord Victor, 9/1 Angie´s Nap, 10/1 Clayton Flick, Miss Taken, 50/1 Last Of The Ravens.
DIOMED VERDICT: An uncompetitive claimer which looks at the mercy of the progressive LORD VICTOR. Angie's Nap may prove second best.
DIOMED VERDICT: An uncompetitive claimer which looks at the mercy of the progressive LORD VICTOR. Angie's Nap may prove second best.
In a day of limited opportunities, dare we trust a 2/7 shot in a claimer at Southwell? 5 of his last 6 runnings have been at Southwell, and he is a winner at the course which is a big boon.
3rd fav is a non runner, and there is one 50/1 shot leaving 3 fighting for 2 places. Prices are likely to be stingy in the place only market to say the least.
Another " hard to beat" candidate and the most eyecatching price gapper of the day so far. 1.09 to place at time of writing is enticing given the big priced outsider. 1.3 for the win
SPOTLIGHT
" Lord Victor: Front-runner, progressive of late on this course; well suited by return to this trip when holding odds-on favourite on disadvantageous terms last week; will be hard to beat."
SPOTLIGHT
" Lord Victor: Front-runner, progressive of late on this course; well suited by return to this trip when holding odds-on favourite on disadvantageous terms last week; will be hard to beat."
310 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Trans Sonic, 11/4 Bestowed, Hit The Switch, 13/2 Tallest Peak, 12/1 King Of Legend, 14/1 Plenilune, 20/1 Silca Meydan, 25/1 Anduril,
DIOMED VERDICT: With the surface a grey area for Bestowed, TRANS SONIC rates the safer option.
DIOMED VERDICT: With the surface a grey area for Bestowed, TRANS SONIC rates the safer option.
Interesting that the surface is mentioned again at Southwell, and in future, it is perhaps worth noting that consideration should be given to horses used to Southwell's all weather surface than to those debuting on it. 1.34 to place
Hit the switch is a non runner here ( original 3rd fav) so quite significant as it is one less fancied rival for the favourite. This is a class 6 0-60 handicap and originally in the betting forecast there were only 4 horses under 14/1
As you know by now, I only look at class 6 0-60 handicaps when there is a price gapper but with Trans sonic proven on the surface ,will this be the key to him placing?
That's it - Lingfield and Kempton both abandoned due to lack of ambulances.
TENNIS
Again returning to the Qatar Tennis, Federer retains his very very short priced status. His 2nd set yesterday saw his opponent put up a fight and eventually succumb 6-4
The 2-0 set odds are rising as Federer progresses and serve as ample warning that the opponents are getting naturally better. 1.27 today
FOOTBALL
The German friendlies and made up and meaningless cups continue as Hamburg take on Kayserispor
1.91 to prevail - I wanto to approach this from likely goals scored. The 2 German friendlies so far have both been 2-1 wins for the German sides.
Unbeaten away from home in the Bundesliga, Hamburg have been draw specialists. With this being the winter break, the likelihood is that Hamburg's side is going to mirror their league side .
Kayserispor are 4th in the Turkish league and will be a stern enough test.Against Fenerbahce and Galatasary they still have diffficulties, and a strong Bundesliga outfit should be similar to the top 2 in the Turkish league. Hamburg are 4th in a stronger league. 1.29 over 1.5 goals
9pm - Malaga v Getafe - Spanish Cup. The Racing Post tells us that Getafe have got to the final of the Spanish Cup in 2 of the last 3 seasons. This is interesting, expecially as they are playing a Malaga side 19th out of 20 in the league.
Now if you were the manager/Chairman of Malaga ,what would you prefer? La Liga survival or a cup which is likely to be won by Barcelona or Real Madrid?
6 draws and a win in their last 7 games is good for Malaga and I suppose recent good unbeaten form is the reason for the price. The Racing Post's insistence that Getafe target this Cup could be a good reason, then , to LAY MALAGA HALF TIME/FULL TIME at odds of around 5.3?This is the equivalent of backing at 1.22. If there is a draw or Malaga lose at half time , we win. If Malaga win at half time, but go on to lose in the 2nd half, we win.
Malaga have only won 2 matches this season in la Liga, and coincidentally the last match they won was a 2-1 win, where they won at half time and full time. As Harry Hill would say " what are the chances of that happening ( again!)
What makes this a head scratcher is that Malaga will be playing Getafe in 2 matches time in La Liga and will there be a need to lay down a home marker tonight ?
BUT you saw with Barcelona the other night, a 2 legged affair does not instil the same " get the job done" attitude that only one 90 minute match would instil.
SHORTLIST
A very difficult day today with only one all weather course to select from , no really strong football opportunities, and the BDO Darts which is best approached at from a trading perspective.
My shortlist will include
140 SOUTHWELL - a race where the odds are the guide here, and it's a matter of justifying those odds
Lord Admiral is holding firm at 2/7 in the win market, and 1.09 in the place market. This is one of those bets where we have an outsider at 50/1, leaving, surely, 3 horses to fight for the 2 places.
Interesting analysis of his last race
"LORD VICTOR had scored under this rider in similar fashion here two runs back and just outstayed the favourite after getting first run in the straight. He´s going to be a formidable opponent here into the New Year kept to this grade, but will struggle in handicaps if the handicapper takes this beating of a below-par 75-rated animal literally."
He returns to claiming company today.Shane Kelly retains the ride, and he is 131 in his last 3 rides on this horse, and importantly, at Southwell.
So, is there any reason why Lord Victor will be beaten by 2 other horses in this 4 horse race?
Lord Victor beat both Angies Nap and Miss Taken on 29th December ( the race where I got the confident analysis above from)
A resumption of the form of that race should suffice, with Last of the ravens seemingly out of it.
Is "hard to beat" and a big price gapper.
TENNIS
Again returning to the Qatar Tennis, Federer retains his very very short priced status. His 2nd set yesterday saw his opponent put up a fight and eventually succumb 6-4
The 2-0 set odds are rising as Federer progresses and serve as ample warning that the opponents are getting naturally better. 1.27 today
FOOTBALL
The German friendlies and made up and meaningless cups continue as Hamburg take on Kayserispor
1.91 to prevail - I wanto to approach this from likely goals scored. The 2 German friendlies so far have both been 2-1 wins for the German sides.
Unbeaten away from home in the Bundesliga, Hamburg have been draw specialists. With this being the winter break, the likelihood is that Hamburg's side is going to mirror their league side .
Kayserispor are 4th in the Turkish league and will be a stern enough test.Against Fenerbahce and Galatasary they still have diffficulties, and a strong Bundesliga outfit should be similar to the top 2 in the Turkish league. Hamburg are 4th in a stronger league. 1.29 over 1.5 goals
9pm - Malaga v Getafe - Spanish Cup. The Racing Post tells us that Getafe have got to the final of the Spanish Cup in 2 of the last 3 seasons. This is interesting, expecially as they are playing a Malaga side 19th out of 20 in the league.
Now if you were the manager/Chairman of Malaga ,what would you prefer? La Liga survival or a cup which is likely to be won by Barcelona or Real Madrid?
6 draws and a win in their last 7 games is good for Malaga and I suppose recent good unbeaten form is the reason for the price. The Racing Post's insistence that Getafe target this Cup could be a good reason, then , to LAY MALAGA HALF TIME/FULL TIME at odds of around 5.3?This is the equivalent of backing at 1.22. If there is a draw or Malaga lose at half time , we win. If Malaga win at half time, but go on to lose in the 2nd half, we win.
Malaga have only won 2 matches this season in la Liga, and coincidentally the last match they won was a 2-1 win, where they won at half time and full time. As Harry Hill would say " what are the chances of that happening ( again!)
What makes this a head scratcher is that Malaga will be playing Getafe in 2 matches time in La Liga and will there be a need to lay down a home marker tonight ?
BUT you saw with Barcelona the other night, a 2 legged affair does not instil the same " get the job done" attitude that only one 90 minute match would instil.
SHORTLIST
A very difficult day today with only one all weather course to select from , no really strong football opportunities, and the BDO Darts which is best approached at from a trading perspective.
My shortlist will include
140 SOUTHWELL - a race where the odds are the guide here, and it's a matter of justifying those odds
Lord Admiral is holding firm at 2/7 in the win market, and 1.09 in the place market. This is one of those bets where we have an outsider at 50/1, leaving, surely, 3 horses to fight for the 2 places.
Interesting analysis of his last race
"LORD VICTOR had scored under this rider in similar fashion here two runs back and just outstayed the favourite after getting first run in the straight. He´s going to be a formidable opponent here into the New Year kept to this grade, but will struggle in handicaps if the handicapper takes this beating of a below-par 75-rated animal literally."
He returns to claiming company today.Shane Kelly retains the ride, and he is 131 in his last 3 rides on this horse, and importantly, at Southwell.
So, is there any reason why Lord Victor will be beaten by 2 other horses in this 4 horse race?
Lord Victor beat both Angies Nap and Miss Taken on 29th December ( the race where I got the confident analysis above from)
A resumption of the form of that race should suffice, with Last of the ravens seemingly out of it.
Is "hard to beat" and a big price gapper.
That's it today.
As much as I hate playing 2 the place races, Lord Victor is a very big priced price gapper, is a "very hard to beat" candidate, and has already beaten 2 of the 3 opponents on 29th December 2009. Same jockey is retained in Shane Kelly.
One of the horses is 40/1 and should play no part. Will Lord Victor get beaten by 2 of the remaining 3 and not place?
""LORD VICTOR had scored under this rider in similar fashion here two runs back and just outstayed the favourite after getting first run in the straight. He´s going to be a formidable opponent here into the New Year kept to this grade, but will struggle in handicaps if the handicapper takes this beating of a below-par 75-rated animal literally."
(italics -my emphasis) - he is kept in claimers so hopefully will run as per the price back in a claimer and not get beaten by 2 in a prospective 3 horse race.
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