630PM SCOTT WAITES TO BEAT MARTIN PHILLIPS 1.11 MATCH ODDS MARKET
As ever we have a trading option here, and although not a prerequisite, it is worth bearing in mind.
There are no real rock solid bets before this one at 630pm so I will not be launching the live chat facility.
Lord Victor lost but placed! That was the key! I' glad I left Malaga alone, put off by the fact they play Getafe in the league, as they won half time and full time. The darts was interesting yesterday as it went as per the odds - Tony O'Shea at 1.23 was a steal. Does this mean that 1.14 Martin Adams has an even easier time of it this evening?
The All Weather survives today
100 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Divine Force, 11/2 Lord Deevert, Peopleton Brook, 13/2 Double Bill, 8/1 Musical Script, 10/1 Kyle, Riflessione, 14/1 Imperial House, Suhayl Star, 16/1 White Shift, 20/1 Albaher, 33/1 Trip Switch.
| DIOMED VERDICT: DIVINE FORCE was a convincing winner here last month, hasn't had many chances at 6f on Polytrack and should have more to offer. A class 6 0-65 handicap and Divine Force is now 7/4 in the live betting market. A 2nd and 1st place at Lingfield last 2 runs. As you have seen, these price gappers in class 6 handicaps have been placing with regularity when the confidence is there in the market With the non runners, this field is now 8 runners and 3 places with Divine force holding up at 13/8 fav. 4 horses priced around 8/1 signfiy the tightness of this race, with only one real outsider at 33/1 1.37 Divine force to place -the only horse in the place only market under evens 315 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: Evs Obe Gold, 7/2 Rosie Says No, 5/1 Spoof Master, 13/2 Whatyouwoodwishfor, 8/1 Verinco, 33/1 Truly Divine.
The problem with a lot of races today is they only pay for 2 places. With Obe Gold now 4/5, can we trust the horse to win, or come 2nd? 12/1 and 33/1 outsiders hopefully play no part ,reducing this to a 4 horse race for 2 places. This is a seller, so caution, but Obe Gold has run well in sellers, and importantly at Southwell last time out. Generally, though, we cannot trust sellers. 1.3 to place 400 LINGFIELD BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Wunder Strike, 15/8 Prince Of Thebes, 5/1 Dajen, 10/1 Nora Mae, 14/1 Grey Boy, 16/1 Justcallmehandsome, 20/1 Expensive Problem.
You know by now that multiple handicap winners' winning sequences end sometime as the weight penalties catch up. BUT Wunderstrike is clear in the live betting , and touches evens in places. Nathan Alison takes off 5 lbs, and I have never heard of this jockey. Coupled with the fact winning sequences end eventually, and this is apprentice ridden ,AND there are only 2 places on offer, and it becomes a niggly affair. 1.42 to place and a reminder - only 2 places Wolverhampton is off now. BDO DARTS Thompson v Adams - 1.11 Adams. Now there are not many places online I can do proper research on these 2 guys. More's the pity. I found out after I wrote the blog yesterday, that John O'Shea was World Number 1 ( for BDO ) so yesterday's 1.23 was a gift from the Gods! So if Adams is 1.11 ( he was 1.14 yesterday) then expectation is for an easy win in this first to 5 setter. The quarter finals went as per the market yesterday - more of the same today? Scott Waites v Martin Phillips 1.12 Waites The argument above applies equally to this match . But I am betting blind. The BBC coverage tends to give snippets of information that can act as a confidence booster or otherwise to back at the odds but the coverage starts just before the match. It looks as if Martin Adams is 3rd seed and Scott Waites is 2nd seed. Bearing in mind the ease with which top seed John O'Shea won yesterday at bigger prices, then logic dictates a bet on Scott Waites as 2nd seed at 1.12? Waites has been fairly emphatic so far in his games. FOOTBALL Braga v Nacional 1.75 - Braga have only been beaten once this season ( 1-0 by Guimares) and have won all bar a 0-0 draw with Naval at home. That 0-0 came in their last home game and was the only time they dropped points at home. Nacional are flying in 4th place, ( Sporting Lisbon underperforming has helped) - they don't seem to be good travellers, having lost 4 away ( and winning 4 away) - importantly, they have lost emphatically to 2nd and 3rd in the league - Braga are top. I would approach this match from the perspective of laying Nacional rather than backing Braga. An even better bet would be the halftime/fulltime lay bet that I alluded to yesterday. Laying Nacional/Nacional half time fulltime is around 13.5 which is the equivalent to just shy of a 1.08 bet ( similar to Lord Victor yesterday) If Nacional lose or draw the first half, then we win. I cannot really see a repeat of Malaga yesterday - this is a League game - 90 minutes - not a 2 legged affair. The key may be Braga's defense - their goals against is 6 Nacional's goals against are 24 in the 14 games played this season. Nacional have had difficulty playing against the top 3 this season so asking them to win at half time and be winning at full time is, I suspect, a tough ask West Brom v Forest - 1.99 home side 2nd v 3rd in the Championship. West Brom have a game in hand and would dearly love to reduce the deficit to Newcastle by 3 this evening. West Brom have struggled against Top 10 sides at home ( and beaten all not in top 10 at home) 2 draws and 3 losses against the 5 top 10 sides they have played at home. These games are generally emphasised by tight scorelines ( 2 1-0 losses at home attest to this) Head to Heads v Forest - 1-0 away to Forest again emphasises the likelihood of a tight match. One word describes Forest away from home - DRAW!!! 9 draws away from home this season - unbeaten away from home - other 3 matches were wins. 8% of Forest's away matches have been over 2.5 goals 50% of West Brom's home matches have been over 2.5 goals, but bear in mind that they have scored bucket loads against other than top 10 opposition, and have only scored 3 at home against top 10 opposition in 5 games I would be looking to back under 4.5 goals in this match at around 1.13 in the hope this game is as tight as all other top 10 encounters for West Brom. TENNIS QATAR OPEN SEMI FINAL Federer v Davydenko This match deserves a mention because of the trading potential . I would look to lay the first set winner, and these 2's head to heads are characterised by a fight back in the 2nd set. Federer is 12 -1 in head to heads. The most recent defeat was in London where Federer did look out of sorts and Davy took advantage. Should be a superb trading game.I am sure Federer will win a set. If it's the first set, then his odds will drop considerably, if the 2nd set after losing the first, then his odds will return to around the 1.5 they are at present. RUGBY UNION Magners League Leinster v Glasgow warriors 1.22 Generally at home, Leinster should be expected to win and win well Head to heads 11-4 in favour of Leinster Previw of the match "The last six meetings between the two teams have all been won by the home side on the day, whilst Glasgow have never won in 11 previous clashes on Leinster soil in all competitions. Leinster have won four of their last five games in all competitions, and have won their last ten Magners League fixtures played at the RDS. Glasgow Warriors continue to set the pace in the Magners League. The Warriors are unbeaten in their last six league matches and should they not lose this game will set a new Glasgow unbeaten record in the Magners League. Glasgow have won their last four encounters with Irish sides." SHORTLIST I seem to have an aversion to all weather betting at the moment, thanks to the heart stopping 2nd place of Lord Victor yesterday ( despite being a winning place only bet, I would have preferred that he actually won the race to make life a little more comfortable) 100 LINGFIELD - Divine force is a progressive sort -2nd and 1st in last 2 Lingfield races and Simon Whitworth retains the ride. Hint of the " price gapper in a 0-65 class 6 handicap" ,especially so in the live market where the early 2/1 is now 6/4 Lord Deevert is close by at 3/1 and 4 horses are 8/1 which signifies plenty of decent rivals . Analysis of Divine Force''s last runs " one to keep an eye on, especially if the market speaks in his favour" and "powered clear inside the final furlong. He´s taken a while to win a race, with this being his first success at the tenth attempt, but on this evidence he can go in again." BDO WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP DARTS 630pm Scott Waites 1.11 v Martin Phillips. To precis my argument, if top seed yesterday won so emphatically at 1.23, then surely 2nd seed Waites can win just as easily at even shorter odds. He is proving popular on betfair already - price has dropped while I have been writing!! 745pm - same argument cam be made about 3rd seed Martin Adams at exactly the same price. FOOTBALL The match of interest for me would seem to be Braga v Nacional this evening. I would like to oppose Nacional, and it would seem the safest option ( ie it would be a shock if they won !) would be to oppose Nacional halftime/full time at current odds of 13. The problem with this bet is that it is not in a liquid market and late bet placers would be betting at unrealistic odds. West Brom and Notts Forest is intriguing. Clearly Forest are in the form of their life, unbeaten since September 2009. Their away form is excellent and they obviously have a set up here, managing 9 draws and 3 wins away from home. The Baggies are usually reknowned goalscorer, but against the top 10, this is not really the case, Hope is for a tight game and under 4.5 goals at 1.13 is a good option. The ideal for me with the darts and football bets ( well the West Brom game anyway) is to trade -eg if it's 0-0 at half time, the under 4.5 goals odds will reduce hugely If Waites or Adams win the first set, their odds will reduce dramatically. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST It is Scott Waites who appeals most for me, simply given he is the 2nd seed and is priced at half the price John O'Shea was yesterday when he won comfortably. This game is on at 630pm My ideal bet would have been a lay of Nacional half time/ full time but the market is not liquid enough. Under 4.5 goals in the West Brom v Forest game hinges on our faith in a Forest defence which has kept 6 consecutive clean sheets - the 8% stat for over 2.5 goals away matches is a compelling one. |
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