Please note that I am trying to travel today back to Ireland ( my 2nd attempt this weekend) so, dependent on the situation in England, there may not be a message tomorrow, although I am confident that my journey should be completed today
Apologies with relative lateness of message as compared to Rangers kick off. Please do look at the blog ( www.cliveoneaday.com, password stable634) first rather than waiting for an email, as the latter is sent out by an email broadcast system and has to "join a queue"
Correct option the scores yesterday given it was a cup match and 3-3 was great for over 1.5 goals
Paris St Germain did not disappoint winning 5-0.
Elsewhere all of the shortlisters won, including Barcelona who returned to their emphatic old selves with a drubbing of Tenerife.
Just a note on Love Delta's race yesterday. 2 late non runners including the other Mark Johnston market leader left Love Delta having to beat 2 horses to place, and at 1.31 this was an excellent opportunity. Alas the non runners were withdrawn all too late, but those able to follow the live betting I hope spotted this.
Wolves and Kempton remain and the African Cup of Nations has kicked off already.
200 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Heathyards Junior, 7/2 Northern Tour, Ten Pole Tudor, 16/1 Pride Of Nation, 33/1 Foxtrot Bravo.
| DIOMED VERDICT: A bit surprising to see HEATHYARDS JUNIOR risked at this level after winning a C&D maiden last month on just his third start but he is clearly the one to beat. |
A seller so caution immediately but an interesting make up price wise. 2 clear outsiders should leave 3 fighting for 2 places
"meets all of these rivals on at least 12lb better terms than he would in a handicap." and
"A bit surprising to see HEATHYARDS JUNIOR risked at this level after winning a C&D maiden last month on only his third start but he is clearly the one to beat"
"clearly the one to beat"- these are trigger words I like and it's a simplistic system but you'd be amazed how many of these place.
Foxtrot Bravo shows at 16/1 early doors - sign of a market move perhaps?
What we need to decide is whether Heathyards Junior can be trusted in selling company. These races are very unpredictable UNLESS this favourite has been dropped in class to secure another run and another win?
This horse was a 12/1 surprise winner last time - now this was very unexpected -was it an anomolous win? Fits in again with the "unpredictable" aspect of this race. 1.29 to place in this 5 runner 2 places race belies the slight unease about this market leader
300 WOLVERHAMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Brave Decision, 9/2 Burghley, 5/1 Duellist, Paintball, 6/1 Sunrise Lyric, 12/1 Miereveld, 14/1 American Agent, 20/1 Que Belle, Seek The Cash, 25/1 Your Lad, 100/1 Bibiana Bay, Rightcar Joan.
| DIOMED VERDICT: The betting should be instructive as regards the newcomers but BRAVE DECISION made an encouraging debut over C&D a fortnight ago and can make his experience tell. |
Only 5 horses under 16/1 in the live betting at time of writing. This is a maiden with 3 newcomers and 8 horses who have only had the single run and are thus open to improvement.Of the 5 under 16/1, duellist represents the Fanning/Johnston partnership but it must be said that the head of the market is very tight with 4 horses between 11/4 and 9/2
415 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Ramamara, 9/2 Avow, 5/1 Major Maximus, 11/2 City Gossip, 7/1 Maoi Chinn Tire, 10/1 Marjolly, Mind The Monarch,
| DIOMED VERDICT: RAMAMARA's latest form at Wolverhampton is as good form as anything on offer in this race. |
Typical of the headscratchers the all weather offers up. A clear price gapper but this is a 7 runner event and 3 places.
Of course there's always a negative - the "outsider" is 14/1, the 2nd biggest price is 8/1 - this is a competitive claimer!!
The horse's sole run at Kempton was poor -9th of 11. Will Ramamara act on this surface? 1.32 to place and holding steady at 6/4
FOOTBALL
4pm Ivory Coast v Burkino Faso -1.29 Ivory Coast
September's 5-0 win by the Ivorians should be a signal as to what is expected this afternoon . Drogba and Kalou upfront is enticing from a goals perspective.A 3-2 win for the Ivorians prior to that 5-0 was in Burkino Faso .
Of slight concern is the fact this is the kick of match for both sides, where the underdogs might over perform.
With Eboue, Toure and Keita in the side, they surely have too much class.Over 1.5 goals is 1.23 here which includes both sides.
Now I want to be looking for one of those " shock if it loses" bets - YES it is a shock if Burkino win, but not necessarily if they draw.
a welcome sign, though, from Betfair's market makers is the +1.5 goal handicap for Burkino faso ( hint that Ivorians could score 2?)
9/4 outright favourites for the tournament tells us that Burkino Faso are up against it
5pm- Anorthosis v Nea Salamis - 1.15 - take Paris St Germain's 1.17 as giving us an idea of what is expected from a home team when priced this short - 5 goals to no reply.
This is a Cypriot Division 1 match and the home side are familiar to those who follow European Cup competitions.
Bar a 2-1 win latest, Anorthosis have generally scored 4 or 5 against this lot ( ties in nicely with the Paris St Germain scoreline at similar odds yesterday)
Anorthosis have lost their last 2, but they were away and one was a cup game ( must have been a weakened side because lost against a side they beat 5-0 in the league)
TENNIS
The warm up matches to the Australian Open begin for the ladies at the Medbank international and Serena Williams is 1.13 to beat Martinez Sanchez at 115am 12th Jan . I expect her to put down a marker here.
SHORTLIST
The horses are a motley bunch today, coming as they do from claimers, sellers and maidens. Ramamara looks to be the best of a bad bunch, purely because it's not 7 runners and still 3 places, but 2nd biggest priced horse is 8/1 which means that this claimer is a very tight affair. Add into the mix the fact that Ramamara was 9th of 11 on sole try at this venue and this really does not exactly take on the status of " shock if this horse does not place"
Football wise, I am taken today by
- Ivory Coast against Burkino Faso. 1.29 looks spot on for a team comprising the following - Drogba, Kalou, Kone, Kone, Eboue, Keita amongst others. The safest bet would be over 1.5 goals at 1.22 which involves both sides.Head to heads are very much in the favour of Ivory Coast , scoring 8 and conceding 2 against this opposition. NIGGLES - first match for both sides in this competition could mean a pumped up Burkino faso may surprise ( but then the over 1.5 goals bet includes both sides to cover this)
- Anorthosis Famagusta are 4th in the Cypriot Division 1, albeit only 4 points from the top side. 1.15 deserves a mention because Paris St Germain showed yesterday what is expected of teams at this price ( a 5-0 win) and this ties in with the 3 times in the last 4 head to heads that Anorthosis have scored 4 or more against their opposition today.
The 4-4 scoreline in the opening fixture heralds, I hope, some Tommy Cooper-eque goalkeeping antics from the Burkino Faso side.
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