31/1

ONE A DAY - 340 LIMERICK - SOME TARGET TO PLACE ONLY - PLEASE USE BETFAIR STARTING PRICE AS THE PLACE ONLY MARKET IS RELATIVELY ILLIQUID

Apologies for relative lateness of message yesterday, although I did receive mine at 1233pm.

1255 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Heads Onthe Ground, 4/1 Silver Birch, 5/1 Nelson´s Spice, 13/2 Freneys Well, 10/1 Merry Cowboy, Shesadoll, 14/1 Artiste Bay, 16/1 Lord Nellerie, 20/1 Another Jewel, Loggan Lass, 25/1 Dream Home, Goinforporter, Leading The Way, 33/1 Proud To Present.

And the winner should be Enda Bolger, but which horse? 1st ,3rd and 4th fav for old Edna and Silver Birch, 2nd fav
Normally Garde Champetre would be fav here so I would go with JT McNamara's mount, Heads on the ground.

130 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Big Zeb, 5/4 Golden Silver, 14/1 Mansony, 20/1 Conna Castle, 40/1 Don´t Be Bitin.

One of those probability races. Should involve the front 2 ,with 2 places, but Spotlight admits that Big Zeb has not been that sound a jumper. Add to this heavy ground and the race takes on a different and less solid complexion. 2 horses are 40/1 or bigger reducing this to 3 horses and 2 places. Golden silver 1.25 to place and being backed in Big Zeb's stead.

140 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Sounds Of Jupiter, 3/1 Ned Of The Hill, 7/1 False Economy, 10/1 Frosted Grape, 14/1 Daly, 33/1 Dixielander, Telefis Eireann, Uimhir A Naoi, 50/1 Akbarito, Papamae, Seaside Shuffle, Tidy Zag.

A 2 miler and soft ground and a market dominated by 4/9 Sounds of Jupiter with next best 5/1.

Last 2 races have been in similar races to today in heavy and soft ground, and both 2nd places which augurs well today, especially as the 4/5 has been battered into 4/9 - a maiden hurdle - remember Definite all star - strongly fancied in a maiden hurdle but weakened out of the places

200 PUNCHESTOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Seabass, 9/2 Tiernan´s Terror, 11/2 Stewarts House, 7/1 An Peinteir, 8/1 Kilbane River, 12/1 Pommier D´Estruval, 14/1 L´Acajou, The Bosses Nephew, 16/1 The Cub Wood.

I mentioned Sea Bass last time, and he reached 1.02 to place before a last second fall. Another price gapper and slightly up in class here, Ruby rides for his Pa and he will expect compensation for that very unlucky fall.

245 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Sure Josie Sure, 13/8 Megasue, 11/2 Good Faloue, 20/1 Siouxme, 28/1 Meant To Bee, 33/1 Loana Shell, Saltara.

DIOMED VERDICT: There is theoretically little between SURE JOSIE SURE and Megasue on today's terms but the former gets the verdict if conditions remain testing.

A race of 2 halves - 3 under 20/1 and Sure Josie Sure was brought down when very well fancied last time out. This is one of those races where you pick one of the 3 under 20/1 and hope they finish in the front 2

255 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Boogie Waltzer, 9/4 R Woody, 9/2 Texas Queen, 6/1 Micky´s Knock Off, 12/1 Papageno,

DIOMED VERDICT: BOOGIE WALTZER is thriving at present and another small rise in the weights may not be enough to prevent her from completing the hat-trick.

4 horses now and 2 places - a simple 50/50 race - papegeno is still in and still priced as the outsider so this is another 3 horse race for 2 places - faith in the fav Boogie Waltzer not to get beaten by one other in a perceived 3 horse race?

315 PLUMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Youngstown, 4/1 Maktu, 11/2 Kawagino, 7/1 Lord Appellare, 8/1 Silver Bay, 12/1 Vamizi,

DIOMED VERDICT: YOUNGSTOWN makes the long journey south as Donald McCain's only runner on the card and this progressive young chaser is taken to complete a hat-trick.

Typical of today, 5 runners and 3 places. Youngstown represents Donald McCain and Jason Maguire who I've grown to admire over the last few days as they seem to deliver when onboard a market leader. The long journey and sole runner for the stable makes this an interesting contender even if only 2 places

340 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Some Target, 6/1 Sheer Genius, 8/1 Gala Dancer, 10/1 Bring Me Back, 12/1 Ballyburke, 14/1 Wings Of A Star, 16/1 Fiz Brown, Raise The Rafters, 20/1 Michelle´s Express, 33/1 Louse Loury, 50/1 Jellysweets, Target Man.

Price gapper here for the Mullins clan again - " it would be surprising if he were beaten here"
That's what I want - a bet where it would be a shock if the horse lost ( or didn't place)

FOOTBALL
130pm - Man City v Portsmouth - 1.33 - rich v poor. With 4th place at only 42 points, a win here for City and they will be joint 5th ( well 6th on goal difference) on 41 points.
All 3 losses this term have been away from home.
Have won their last 4 games at home, scoring 2+ goals on each occasion.
HEad to heads 1-0 at Pompey.
7 wins and 3 draws at home ( the draws can be forgiven as they came in that anomolous 7 game draw sequence).
Pompey have lost 4 and drawn 2 away from home.Apart from a 2-0 win over a stuttering Liverpool, Pompey have been royally spanked against the top 4 candidates

I would look to the recent Arsenal and MAn Utd scorelines and expect a victory at home

Twente v Roda 1.35 - a win and they go top ( although will have played 1 more game)
A 12 game winning streak ended with 2 0-0 away scorelines - a big surprise for Schteve, how you say, Mcclaren
Have won all bar a 1-1 draw with PSV at home
BEat Roda 2-1 away from home
Roda lost the 4 games they have played against top 6 away from home
Recent home form has seen battling qualities - 3-1 win , 3-2 loss , 2-1 win
Expectation is for 2 goals at least today

430pm - Leverkusen v Freiburg - 1.29 - 2nd v 15th +27 goals v -17 goal difference
Game in hand for Leverkusen will see them 1st in the Bundesliga with a win today. Priced to win and motivated to win, AND AT HOME!
Unbeaten this season. Only 2 draws at home - beat Freiburg 5-0 away from home.
Have scored 3 or more in last 4 home games naturally winning them all

Freiburg have lost last 3 games, 2 by 1-0 so a hint that they can defend until eventually succumbing.
Some tightness in last 4 matches - 0-0 , 1-0, 2-0, 1-0 ( losses)

Hope is Leverkusen return to their 5-0 form!

SHORTLIST
As we've seen previously, heavy ground can make apparent good things falter.
1255 PUNCHESTOWN - whenever there's a cross country event, Enda Bolger usually wins - his shortest priced horse is Heads on the ground, usually the bridesmaid to Garde Champetre.
1.69 to place but I have not been impressed with his lack of proximity to stable mate in recent races ( and unplaced at he same time) - not as solid a betting proposition as Garde Champetre although I expect him to place all things being equal

130 PUNCHESTOWN - Golden silver is being backed here with Big Zeb's jumping questionable. Walsh/Mullins - only one of 2 under 14/1 with 2 horse 40/1 or bigger. Should have a great chance of placing but again heavy ground.1.25 to place

Golden silver has won his last 2 chases in GRade 1 and grade 2 company


140 LIMERICK
Sounds of jupiter's betting forecast price of 4/5 battered into 4/9 - big price gapper and 1.12 to place but we must remember this is a maiden hurdle ( L PLATES ON)

255 KEMPTON - most interesting probability race of the day this one. 4 horses - one at 14/1 leaves ,ideally, 3 fighting for 2 places and Boogie Waltzer is on a hatrick and may " have had something in hand" last run.
Will he get beaten by 1 other in this perceived 3 horse race?
1.39 to place tells us R Woody and Texas Queen cannot really be discounted at all

340 LIMERICK - take the extreme confidence of spotlight here with Some Target? " a surprise" if he was beaten - well I just want him to place so surely he has a better chance of placing when they expect hism to win!!
1.11 to place

130pm - Motivation is something I always look for. Man City can breathe down 4th placer's neck with a win today and are playing a club in turmoil off the pitch. 1.34 to win in the match odds and 1.26 over 1.5 goals

430pm - Leverkusen again are motivated to win as they will go top against a side they beat 5-0 away from home ( albeit in August 2009) - unbeaten this season -concern with recent relative tight games for Freiburg ( 3 losses and a draw)
BUT Leverkusen have scored 3 or more in their last 4 home games and I would favour the match odds win to trade out after they hopefully score first ( given Freiburg's recent 1-0 losses just to be safe)

SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST

130 PUNCHESTOWN - 2 horses only under 16/1 , 2 horses at 50/1 and 66/1 and a well backed Walsh/Mullins Golden Silver against a Big Zeb whose jumping has been inconsistent.
Should Golden Silver put in a clear round, he should not get beaten by 2 others in a perceived 3 horse race.
NEGATIVES - HEAVY GROUND and we have been scuppered before with heavy ground and perceived well argued bets.

340 LIMERICK -
"SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks to be a fairly straightforward opportunity for SOME TARGET and it would be very surprising if he were beaten here."

Well that's the kind of bet I look for, a surprise if the horse was beaten.1.13 to place but a highly illiquid market.
POSITIVES? 2nd last twice in bumpers under this jockey - price gapper - has run in tielding and heavy so soft ground of no immediate concern.
Mullins horse too and they are dominant and generally trustworthy to give their running when fancied

NEGATIVES - the 1/2 in the betting forecast is showing at 8/11 in the live betting so some concern re confidence.
Last ru n a month ago
Irish racing can be unpredictable

130 - Man City have an ideal opportunity at home to win today 1.33. I would always trade out if they score first and get my stake back

430 -Leverkusen have an outstanding chance of winning today

30/01

BETFAIR SP worked yesterday with 1.11 about Tatatiano - I will be place backing at Betfair SP to report back whether it will, over time, produce better odds.



1255 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Pistolet Noir, 9/2 George Nympton, 7/1 Good Lord, Investissement, 25/1 Blazing Buck, History Lesson, Reaction, 50/1 Baccalaureate.

DIOMED VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for PISTOLET NOIR to advertise his Triumph claims on his first run for Paul Nicholls. Former stablemate George Nympton appeals as a decent each-way alternative.

7 runners now. 3 horses are 33/1 or bigger, and only 3 under 14/1 - Pistolet Noir represents Nicholls/Walsh and with still 3 places on betfair looks to have a great place only chance here with a clear round.About 1.1 to place

230 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Calzaghe, 3/1 Foresight, 4/1 Don´t Rush It, 8/1 Tabaran, 25/1 Ibbetson, 33/1 Lightening Fire, 50/1 Diddley Dee, Matinee Idol.

DIOMED VERDICT: The ex-Irish DON'T RUSH IT is a viable alternative to Calzaghe, who wouldn't be one to take too short a price about.

A race of 2 halves - 4 under 25/1 the ones to concentrate on. Heavy ground the worry and Dioed is hardly flattering about Calzaghe's chances

BUT, despite this being a good probability race, would you really want your money invested in a conditional jockey's selling hurdle in heavy ground? - ----thought not!!

That's it with the horse racing - there are a lot of sub 8 runner races over obstacles, meaning only 2 places and with heavy ground at Uttoxeter being a great concern, it is a very difficult day despite being a Saturday.
So on to the football.

HAMILTON V C ELTIC - 1.41 away side - Celtic do not fill me with much confidence as a backer .
Home side won 4 and drawn 1 of last 5, including a 2-0 loss away to Celtic. So recent ability for Celtic to beat them.
Have been beaten by the old Firm 1-0 and 2-1 so expectation, in current Celtic form, for a jittery old day.
Not for me! Although expectation should be for a 2-0 , 2-1 away win

230pm -Bayern Munich v Mainz - 1.21 - 2nd v 8th. Home team unbeaten in last 12 games and priced to continue this today .
Won last 6 games scoring 2 or more on each occasion.
The return of Arjen Robben is superb for Bayern backers as he is a class act. Only need Ribery back to make this a very confident bet.
Bayer's home draws have come against the 3 top 6 sides they have played.
Lost 2-1 away to MAinz way back in August 2009, but now they seem in the groove.
1.14 over 1.5 goals includes both sides.
Talk of "revenge" on the Bayern website ,and a wish to be overnight Bundesliga leaders with a win
As to Mainz
"“Ideally, we’d field a 5-5-2 formation, so we’d be nice and tight but could still hit them on the break,” deadpanned Tuchel, “and we’ll park the team bus in the penalty area, right in front of the goal.”
A 5-5-2 formation? If they're playing with 12, maybe I should avoid this bet. Playing for a " not lose" attitude may stifle?

Ribery is on the bench and this is the 120th home game at the stadium for Bayern so it all augurs well for an extremely motivated home side.

Mainz have lost 4 and drawn 1 against top 7 sides away suggesting the slight step up is a struggle.
Only one win away all season, it is their home form that sees their lofty perch in the Bundesliga.

3pm -Rangers v Falkirk - 1.18 -top v bottom and a 10 point gap to game in hand Celtic. Rangers must be confident of another 3 points again today.
Goal difference +37 compared to -16 tells you where Falkirk's problems lie.
Rangers have lost one game all season -1-0 away to Aberdeen, and have beaten FAlkirk 3-1 and 4-1 this term already, suggesting a look at over 1.5 goals .
Home draws have come against 3rd, 5th and 6th with comfortable wins against the rest,on 6 occasions scoring 3 or more goals ( but that was when Kris Boyd was there!)
Last 4 games have seen away draw, away win, home draw, away win, and worryingly on 3 occasions only 1 goal was scored in those matches - missing Boyd?
Against top 4, Falkirk have lost all home and away bar draws with Celtic which says more about the state of Celtic than Falkirk's abilities against the Old Firm

530pm - Burnley v Chelsea - 1.31 - get em while they're hot!! Managed to halt the Birmingham unbeaten juggernaut with ease, and spanked he Black Cats without their best strikers.
Game in hand this one for Chelsea can see them establish a little gap.
Have only lost 3 all season, all away from home - but have beaten Burnley at home 3-0 already.
Chelsea away form is not too hot - loss, loss, win,win, loss, draw draw in their last 7.
Burnley not won in their last 11 games, but ominously have drawn their last 4 home games 1-1 ( including the Arsenal)
That was under Coyle - has his departure broken the vulnerability?
On a 3 game losing streak ( all away)

6pm -Bordeaux v Boulogne - 1.21 - top v 2nd bottom, Bordeaux can usually be relied upon when short odds at home. One loss all season ( unbeaten at home last season) - have beaten Boulogne already away 2-0 so expectation to at least match that today.
7 wins and a draw last 8 games, loss, win, win, draw last 4 home games. In 2 of those games, they only scored 1 goal, in one they scored none, and the other 4. The latter scoreline should be more like Bordeaux, - are they having trouble infront of goal at home?

7pm Gijon v Barcelona - 1.27 - unbeaten this season and you know the stat by no - 94.74% of all games ,the first goal is scored by Barca.
Have already beaten Gijon at home 3-0.
Have scored 12 in last 3 games with 8 goals in 2 away games!!
Gijon shut out Real Madrid at home and there were an awful lot of 1-0's at home , so bear that in mind. Will they have enough to shut out a team who will score the first goal 94 times out of 100?
I doubt it! A very good trading opportunity

SHORTLIST
No Fairyhouse or Doncaster today limits opportunities. Cheltenham sees a very competitive card with a few 2 the place races which are competitive an hence not good betting mediums.
Uttoxeter is heavy ground and we have already paid the price previously for involvement with seemingly sure things in heavy ground.
1255 CHELTENHAM Pistol Noir is favourite in a race of only 7 runners but still 3 places, only 3 under 14/1 and 4 under 33/1 meaning this looks like a 4 runner race for 3 places.
A clear round should suffice for Pistol Noir to place
1.1 at present and I would use the Betfair Starting Price as I did yesterday.
Walsh/Nicholls horse strongly fancied in the Champion Hurdle ( remember Mille Chief?)
Won an mirror image race at the venue, same grade, same distance,same ground ,same number of runners by 9 lengths . HAndles the venue which is key.
That last run was 14th November 2009, quite a gap, and as we saw with tatatiano yesterday, that could have scuppered him(?) -has those words " will be hard to beat"

Football
Bayern Munich have Robben back, Ribery on the bench, and revenge in the air and look worthy of support at 1.21 today at home on a special anniversary for them ( 120 games at this venue which should ensure a 69,000 capacity)

RAngers look priced at 1.18 to win at home v Falkirk, who they have beaten 4-1 and 3-1 already. 1.18 is also over 1.5 goals which includes both sides.

Barcelona can be backed at 1.27 in the hope they continue the exceptional 94.74% stat of scoring first ( allowing a trade out)

29/01

I know what those of you who got involved in the football were thinking. Juventus went a goal up and "he's done it again!!" -another losing football bet.
But then the magic of the Mourinho home record set in. 1-1 and then 2-1 to Inter Milan.
As an aside, if you took on trust the 8 year home unbeaten record, then what could you have done when Juventus went 1-0 ahead? You could have laid them in the match odds market at around 2.02 ( which I got) or lower, and backed them at about 7 when Inter Milan equalised.
Definite all star was 4th in the maiden hurdle, my stronger horse bets REverend Green won and Bookis index girl - YET AGAIN - produced the goods for the class 6 handicap system.I think it is time this system was included in system bets? Although it is not necessarily a shock if the horse does not place ( given the grade), I think there is proof enough that it is reliable.

105 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Beyond, 11/4 Abergavenny, 11/2 Sansili, 14/1 The Great Husk, 16/1 Brave Talk, Steely Bird, 33/1 Sternian, 50/1 Beat Route,

DIOMED VERDICT: BEYOND took a while to get the hang of things on debut but he stayed on well enough and this longer trip should be in his favour.

Reminiscent of the Reverend Green maiden yesterday where the front 2 dominated by some distance, finishing 1st and 2nd.
8 runners in this race, 3 are 50/1 or over, and only 3 horses are under 16/1
Beyond has only had one run but is odds on , and Abergavenny represents the Johnston/Fanning combination whose maiden debutants have been very hit and miss and, without insider info, we can only look at similar maidens from this team who have run very green and out of the places ( and I am talking about 4 horse races with 2 places) when they were extremely well supported in the market

Beyond's first race had Greyfriarchorista in 2nd place and we know he has won twice ( including on handicap debut a couple of days ago) so the form is good. 1.13 for Beyond to place and 1.31 for Abergavenny to place. I would prefer Beyond who comes from that strong High Constable maiden. 5 lengths behind Greyfriarschorista - I would have liked to have seen the horse closer, but it looks a good maiden form wise
NEGATIVES - only 2nd run and the assumption is the horse will run as per the only other race.
New venue today but same surface.
POSITIVES - has the make up of yesterday's maiden with only 3 horses under 16/1 - that race at the same venue saw the market spot on.
Same again today?
8 runners - 3 are 50/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted. 2 are 20/1 and 16/1.
George Baker is onboard today and he is an experienced jockey - good to have on your side.
I cannot have Abergavenny I'm afraid despite the superb Fanning on board - the Johnston newcomers are just too unreliable and do not run as per their prices until they have some experience
Looks a good place only bet this one.


155 DONCASTER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Sereth, 4/1 Spring Jim, 9/2 La Sarrazine, Moghaayer, 9/1 County Colours, 14/1 Champtho, 16/1 Quite The Man, 25/1 Bogside Theatre, 40/1 Spate River, 66/1 Bollin River, 150/1 Liskaveen Beauty.

DIOMED VERDICT: An interesting contest that includes several unexposed sorts. SERETH sets a decent standard on the bare figures and his Newbury effort has been boosted by the winner's good run in Grade 1 company since.

Normally the Barney Curley horses are at juicy prices and are backed off the boards. Here, though, Sereth is 11/10 and already a market leader after 2 promising placed efforts in novice hurdle company 1.18 to place

205 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 1/5 Tataniano, 7/1 Sunnyhillboy, 8/1 Suntini.

DIOMED VERDICT: It is hard to get away from TATANIANO. Sunnyhillboy has a fair bit to prove over fences still and Suntini may be the better forecast proposition.

Amazingly there is a place only market here. Big price gap. Obvious contender. 1.21 to win and 1.08 to place.
HAs won his last 3 races, 2 of which have been chases like today and it's good to see him handle the bigger obstacles.
Concern that he has not run since November 2009 but this is an Arkle hope, and like Mille Chief before him, it will be a great shock should he not win for all conquering Walsh/Nicholls

Only 2 miles 2 furlongs - the only thing that should scupper this bet is jumping errors

250 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Wanchai Whisper, 5/2 Avow, 3/1 Blue Neptune, 10/1 Out The Ring, 16/1 Annia Galeria.

DIOMED VERDICT: WANCHAI WHISPER is a fair sort in this sort of company and should find this being run to suit.

Backed last time to place and obliged. Now 10/11 and should be competitive again. Only 2 places though for a class 6 claimer 1.3 to place - a hold up horse this Wanchai Whisper and will have an outstanding chance if the race is run to suit

425 NEWBURY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Cucumber Run, 5/1 Richmond, 8/1 Dragon´s Roost, 10/1 Giant Act, 12/1 Flaming Gorge, No Woman No Cry, 16/1 Mzuri Bay, Raspbary, 20/1 Deed Poll, Keltic Crisis, 25/1 Indian Ghyll, Swift Patrician, 33/1 De Mandavoska, 40/1 Ilewin Kim, Letcombe Brook.

DIOMED VERDICT: Far from a strong bumper on paper by Newbury standards. CUCUMBER RUN is a half-brother to very smart jumper Somersby (who won on his debut in a bumper for Henrietta Knight) and may well be another first-time winner for Nicky Henderson, who sent out Mad Max to take this on his debut in 2008.

Cucumber run is now odds on in this bumper, and of course the market is key in these races . Connections are very strong but no form to work off. 1.21 to place but difficult to put this one up with so many unknowns and knowledge that bumpers are really live market races

440 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Lyrical Intent, 9/2 Libre, 13/2 Alseraaj, 8/1 Turkish Sultan, Viking Awake, 10/1 Mojeerr, Red Current, 14/1 Vanadium, 20/1 Amber Ridge, Stark Contrast, 25/1 Amber Moon, Machinate, 28/1 Complete Frontline.

DIOMED VERDICT: Libre and Viking Awake are worth bearing in mind but LYRICAL INTENT is on a roll and can complete a hat-trick.

Slight price gapper here in a class 7 0-50 handicap - although I do prefer class 6, Lyrical Intent is on a hatrick. Price gap in the live market is 2/1 -----5/1 and looks a choice by default really because this is such a poor grade and the contestants in it are really poor.1.53 to place
Not a strong price but then the market is illiquid.

610 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Indian Skipper, 11/4 Fen Spirit, 100/30 Bajan Tryst, 6/1 Ray Of Joy, 8/1 Pawan, 16/1 Classic Descent.

DIOMED VERDICT: A small field might well suit the front-running BAJAN TRYST and though he lacks a recent run that wasn't a disadvantage first time out last season.

Bajan Tryst has leapfrogged into favouratism at 2/1. It's a long way to race time though.

810 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Bajan Pride, 9/2 Grey Command, 7/1 Playful Asset, 8/1 Royal Society, 10/1 Mid Wicket, Space Pirate, 12/1 Desert Fairy, King Of Rhythm, 14/1 Barodine, 25/1 Jobekani, Meml, 33/1 Immaculate Red, 66/1 Helpmeronda.

DIOMED VERDICT: BAJAN PRIDE has to be given a chance to confirm last time's apparent improvement under the same rider. A class 6 handicap for 0-55 rated horses and a slight price gap, not as eyecatching, say, as rock a doodle do, or Marosh, or Bookies index girl from yesterday. 7 lb claimer on board ( has won on the horse so that's a positive.) SHORTLIST 105 LINGFIELD Taking my cues from yesterday's race at the same venue when the similar looking betting market was spot on, perhaps Beyond is worth place backing at 1.13 here now odds on one of only 3 under 16/1 8 horses - 3 places - 3 horses at 50/1 or over reduce competitive field to 5 coming out of a race where the 1st and 2nd have proven themselves since in maiden hand handicap company George Baker is too long in the tooth to mess things up - the only thing that will mess this up is the horse in my view NEGATIVES - maiden race - only had on run - different venue 205 NEWBURY - let the market show you the way and then justify the odds. Tatatiano is a proven chase winner. Last winning run was helped considerably by the fall of Fosters Cross, his close market leader, and this sounds a clear warning regarding jumps racing that falls will occur but when we do not expect it. Tatatiano is the yard's Arkle hope this year, and like Mille Chief, must win to justify his short odds for that race. 1.21 to win is worth a risk , but 1.08 is safer -will he get beaten by 2 horses in a 3 horse race? 250 LINGFIELD - a fair performer in claimers and sellers, Wanchai Whisper may be worth place backing , albeit with only 2 places, and could very well place given his hold up style. Has run at the venue recently, and not out of the places in his last 5 races ( 3rd of 7 I think paid 3 places still on Betfair) 1.3 to place It is too early to get any definitive angles on the Wolverhampton races, suffice to say that I would like to see strong market support for both Lyrical Intent and Bajan Pride as they are both likely price gappers ( although I am worried that Lyrical Intent's race is just TOO low a class for there to be any reliability in the horses) SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST No football today of interest - yes we have Dutch Juliper league and you saw last week that it usually equates to goals but Betfair is not offeing the safer over 1.5 goals market. Horse racing wise, we have been very lucky , pre Cheltenham, to see so many strong and ultra reliable recent horses , most of whom are ante post favourites. And today sees Tatatiano , a likely Arkle hot pot, come back from a lay off since November 2009 and he should win with ease. Today is between the 105 Lingfield and the 205 Newbury.

28th January 2010

125 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Definite All Star, 7/1 Rebel Dancer, 8/1 Gulf Of Aqaba, Spiritual Guidance, Taffy Thomas, 12/1 Kensington Oval, Megabill, Secret Stash, 16/1 Calon Crwbin, Fleur De Vassy, 40/1 Catchmeifyoucan, 50/1 Books Review, Martha Elizabeth, 66/1 Max´s Choice.

DIOMED VERDICT: DEFINITE ALL STAR has had the form of his satisfactory hurdling debut sixth well franked by the second last weekend and, although the tongue strap causes a raised eyebrow, connections are understandably expecting a big run.

Price gapper here but this is a maiden hurdle - close up 6th on his sole hurdle run in Ireland in a 26 runner field. The market expects a very good run and put him way ahead, pricewise, of the market. Jason Maguire a familiar jockey onboard. 1.26 to place and Ffos Las is a hunting ground for the Irish.

135 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Takajan, 2/1 Reverend Green, 12/1 Davana, Kitty Koo, Montego Breeze, 14/1 Swell Fellow, 16/1 Candilejas, 25/1 Paint By Numbers, 33/1 Turnham Green.

DIOMED VERDICT: TAKAJAN produced more than enough in Ireland and on AW at Lingfield to suggest he can take this.

As we know ,it is ideal that horses have some experience of Southwell as it is unique amongst the all weather courses.
Reverend Green does ( despite it looking as if he has no form, he did win a bumper at this all weather venue last time out)
Contrast with Takajan who has been running at Lingfield, albeit promisingly.
1.18 for Takajan to place and 1.21 Reverend Green to place - next best is 2.66 in the place only market.

Only 2 runners under 10/1 here should dominate and faith that , if we choose one to place, the race is dominated by the market leaders.

155 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 El Distintivo, 7/2 Comehomequietly, Praxiteles, 9/1 Munlochy Bay, 10/1 Flexi Time, 11/1 Dream Esteem, 12/1 Cresswell Pride, 14/1 Tar, 20/1 Dont Tell Baby, Tresilian, 25/1 Beat The Rap, 66/1 Nobel Play, Sion Cwilt, 100/1 Sherminator.

DIOMED VERDICT: El Distintivo is getting the hang of things now judging by last week's improved show, while Comehomequietly sets a solid standard but PRAXITELES, of impeccable Flat pedigree, could beat the pair of them if building on a promising C&D debut.

A mention for a certain AP McCoy - he loves it at Ffos Las and has just clicked at the track - bucketful of winners last time . Now on 2nd fav Praxiteles - 4th of 16 on maiden bow in December at Ffos Las.
Only 3 are under 10/1 and my contention is that if the winningmost jockey at Ffos Las is on a horse priced to be competitive, then surely not only does he have a good winning chance but also , by defauly, a good place only chance?

This is one of those dreaded maiden hurdles alas so there may be some ropey jumping by some - 1.50 Praxiteles to place . 1.43 for Comehomequietly to place

230 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Lady Roberta, 3/1 Black Jack Blues, Chartreux, 13/2 Bai Zhu, 8/1 Present To You, 12/1 For Non Stop, 16/1 Universal Soldier, 20/1 She´s On The Case, Timeshift, 50/1 Not Right Now, 66/1 Goodwill Phil, No More Whispers, 100/1 Dromore Hill, 200/1 Master Paddy.

DIOMED VERDICT: LADY ROBERTA shouldn't be far away if reproducing her Clonmel second, though Black Jack Blues and Present To You are obvious threats on form and both Bai Zhu and Chartreux will be interesting for their top, bang in-form stables if they attract market interest.

My argument above applies to Black Jack Blues here. - 1.45 to place
Only 5 horses under 20/1 here , 5 of the 14 runners are over 66/1. Yet again, though, this is a maiden hurdle so we can really only decide by trying to read the market.

250 THURLES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Vinnes Friend, 9/2 Mon Champion, 5/1 Nans Best, 13/2 Glenview Leader, 8/1 Belass Boy, Mazaris, 10/1 Fine Call, 12/1 Lynott, Maca Rince, 16/1 O´Donovan Rossa.

Just a mention for Vinnes Friend, who has shortened to 7/4 and is still shortening. 1.43 to place

305 FFOS LAS
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Cool Friend, 9/4 Carole´s Legacy, 5/1 Wychwoods Legend, 13/2 Speed Bonnie Boat, 12/1 Flutter Bye, 14/1 Mewstone, 16/1 Daraz Rose, 25/1 Midnight Ocean, 66/1 Dolly Grey.

DIOMED VERDICT: COOL FRIEND (nap) is weighted to reverse Exeter form with Carole's Legacy on the revised terms, with Wychwoods Legend seemingly held by the pair of them on that evidence. Only 4 horses under 18/1 should concern us place only backers. But who to choose? Carole's legacy and Cool friend are clear market leaders with a noticeable price gap to 3rd fav, so concentrate on these 2? Difficult choice - Carole's has won 2 chases on the spin ( albeit one had 3 runners only) and Cool friend was a nose 2nd to one of the races won by Carole's legacy. This looks a match up here. Wychwoods and Speed Boat are the 2 horses that may push out one of these market leaders out of the places. 1.33 Caroles Legacy to place and 1.37 Cool friend to place. 320 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 8/13 Bookiesindex Girl, 9/2 Taper Jean Girl, 13/2 Bertie Buckle, 12/1 Sandy Toes, 16/1 Holkham, 33/1 Island Express, Last Of The Ravens. DIOMED VERDICT: The thriving BOOKIESINDEX GIRL should prove hard to beat at this level in current form. Roll up, Roll up, and welcome another class 6 0-60 handicap price gapper. Bookies index girl is the one here. Island Express is a non runner. Sandy Toes is 6/1 and a possible market mover and Taper JEan Girl is 3/1 There are only 2 places here , one horse at 28/1 can hopefully be discounted, leaving 5 fighting for those 2 places. A place only back of Bookies indexgirl is done with the idea that the horse will actually win. " should prove hard to beat" is those trigger words I like to see. - " hard to look beyond " says Spotlight , Remember of course that we have to check that the horses have run at Southwell and the fav has. 1.27 to place 350 SOUTHWELL BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Highland River, 5/1 Charging Indian, Shifting Gold, Strikemaster, 11/2 Laureldeans Best, 8/1 Bosamcliff, Criterion, 10/1 Uncle Bunge. Why is Criterion now 7/4 ( in places) favourite. Smells like another handicap gamble. Close 4th last time out , the connections may feel today is the day. NOTE - Provost yesterday bombed out when another gamble. 8 runners only here so 3 places and only 5 to beat to place. 1.6 to place 400 WARWICK BETTING FORECAST: Evs Noun De La Thinte, 3/1 Senor Shane, 15/2 Machu Picchu, 12/1 Marsh Court, Mr Prickle, 16/1 Onefourfun, 25/1 Silly Wupple, 33/1 Josear. DIOMED VERDICT: This should revolve around the in-form pair Senor Shane and NOUN DE LA THINTE, both of whom are ahead of the handicapper. Onefourfun is now 5/1 and this looks another gamble. The race originally interested me because of Noun de la Thinte On a 6 timer the fav and 2nd fav on a 4 timer. 1.3 Noun to place, 1.5 Senor to place and 2 for Oneforfun to place 445 FFOS LAS BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Lifestyle, 9/2 Celtic Carol, 11/2 Sudden Beat, 13/2 Real Treasure, 9/1 Tsarinova, 12/1 Best Bette, Mabel Tasman, 16/1 Dark Sensation, Pilsudski Rose, 20/1 Glen Innis Lady, 25/1 Baraquet, 100/1 Coben. DIOMED VERDICT: Nicky Henderson is a potent force in bumpers and LIFESTYLE has the right credentials to make a winning debut. Price gapper here, albeit a debutant in a bumper and we know by now that the market speaks in these races. 1.46 to place MEYDAN The new super race course opens today so there may be concern regarding the ground bedding. 405 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bab Al Salam, 5/1 Drunken Sailor, 10/1 Lindner, 10/1 Noisy Silence, 10/1 Petrovsky, 12/1 Distinctive Image, 14/1 Alcomo, 14/1 Arqaam, 14/1 Princess Taylor, 20/1 Lion Sands, 20/1 Monte Alto, 20/1 Mulaqat, 33/1 Colony, 33/1 Kaolak. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Drunken Sailor is interesting on this first run for Luca Cumani but he's considerably higher in the weights than his last run on Polytrack and the one to be on is BAB AL SALAM. Described as "the ideal Carnival type" by his trainer, he's unbeaten on Polytrack, should get the run of the race from his handy draw and looks the one to beat, even from this revised mark, over a trip he should stay on this UAE debut. [Richard Young] Godolphin price gapper here with Frankie Dettori onboard. No live betting market as a comparitor means we have to , at this early stage, trust in the betting forecast. FOOTBALL 745pm Inter Milan v Juventus - 1.81 - This is the Italian Cup but we must remember that 8 year Mourinho statistic - unbeaten at home -although I am unsure as to whether it is applicable to all games or just league games. Worked out well with a nice 3.15 lay of AC Milan when they visited. More unbeaten home results tonight? Team news of course v important but the home stat is compelling. Laying Juventus then would be the way to go , and is the equivalent of a 1.21 back bet bet. SHORTLIST 125 FFOS LAS - Definite all star is hardening at the head of the market , at 5/6 with next best in the betting 6/1. Not sure that Irish form is transferable and comparible with other horses , so reliance on the market here and the price gap is certainly holding strong. Jason Maguire has been in good form recently, rising for Donald McCain. 135 SOUTHWELL - the market has now pushed Reverend Green into 5/4 favouratism here in this race which should only involve the 2 under 10/1 as far as the winner is concerned. The hope is that both will place. A keen sort who is taking a marked drop in trip - perhaps because of said keenness - less likely to expend energy and still have enough in reserv over this shorter trip than the 1 mile 6 he ran in his bumper. Form may be questionable as bumpers are for jumps horses where speed is not necessarily the primary consideration. Has Southwell form. Takajan the only other consideration but a newcomer to Southwell's surface. This is a low grade maiden so we must put all of the above into this context. BUT if the market is accurate, this is a race dominated by the 2 mentioned who ideally should both finish in the first 3 155 FFOS LAS Mention for Praxiteles who has McCoy on his back, is priced 2/1 joint fav nad has a great flat pedigree. If building on his hurdles run at this venue last time, then should run McCoy close. The reason I have chosen this one is McCoy's impeccable record at Ffos Las - logic dictates then that he has a better chance on a joint favourite. Only 3 under 10/1 305 FFOS LAS - should concern Carole's legacy and Cool friend here , but it is difficult to split them. Picking one to place would assume both will fight out the finish . This 3 mile chase should involve just the 4 under 16/1 with hopefully 3 of those placing. Both are up in trip today to 3 miles. 320 SOUTHWELL Must be mentioned because of the excellent performance of this particular little system of mine regarding price gappers in class 6 0-60 handicaps. Marosh the lastest winner for the system. Bookies index girl the horse today and the price gap remains in the live market at 4/5 - - - - - 4/1. Of concern is the potential gamble on Sandy Toes, now 6/1. The presumption must be that Bookies index girl will finish in the first 2 . This system has been superb and the concern is only 2 places. Only 6 runners though and one at 25/1 hopefully reduces the competition. importantly, Bookies has run at Southwell and was placed in last 2 efforts at the venue so we can assume the horse is not averse to this track. 745pm - Inter Milan and Jose Mourinho continue the phenomenal home run stretching back some 8 years. . Juve have lost 6 of their last 8 in the league, but did beat Inter at Juve 2-1. Team news important as this is a Cup game. Inter have won 9 and drawn 2 at home this league campaign, and I am sure, Jose will seek to keep this up. Laying Juventus therefore is the logical bet at an equivalent 1.21 back bet. LAying Juventus/Juventus in the half time/fulltime market is the equivalent of a 1.10 bet and looks solid. SHORTLIST OF THE SHORTLIST There are no Cheltenham bound hot pots out today which we have feated on for the last few days. Nothing as rock solid as a Mille Chief, a Twist Magic, a Solwhit today. 2 races feature battles between 2 likely market leaders and the presumption ,with any involvement in these races, is for the 2 horses to both finish placed. Easier written than done! So what really stands out for me today? 745pm - I revert straight away to the football today and the Inter Milan V Juventus Italian Cup match and the presumption that the astonishing Mourinho home record will continue . If we are looking for a solid bet where it would be a shock were it to not come in, then laying JUVENTUS/JUVENTUS in the HALF TIME /FULL TIME market is my bet of choice here. It is the equivalent of 1.09 or thereabouts but there is not much money available this early on so we could have to place our bts a lot nearer 745pm when the market is a little more liquid. 125 FFOS LAS Mr Maguire the jockey will be confident after his displays of the last couple of days on odds on shots in hurdles events. The best price gapper of the day this one - DEfinite All star is now 5/6 with next best at 5/1 Maiden hurdle though 135 SOUTHWELL - a matter of making the right call Tajakan or Reverend Green. It's difficult as one has the experience and form and the other has won a flat race , albeit a bumper, at the venue , over 1 miles 6 and is being very well supported into 11/10 in a race where only 2 are under 10/1 I would follow the market here and the winning form of Reverend Green over the longer distance - not often you get to back a winning horse in a maiden 320 SOUTHWELL - Although only 2 places, Bookies index girl is 4/5 - - - 4/1 in this 6 runner field. ore importantly, is a price gapper in a class 6 0-60 handicap Concern is just the 2 places and the market mover mentioned earlier.