SEDEGFIELD
Jumps aracing always fill me with trepidation from a place backing perspective - a fall is all that's needed from a short priced fav to scupper things!
230
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Royal Rationale looks best of the penalised contenders but even he's vulnerable with the extra weight and a chance is taken on capable Flat performer STOIC LEADER, who should make an impact if the ground remains on top |
On first viewing Royal Rationale looks a likely price gapper but the horse is currently 4/1 in the early market - now we can view this as value or a warning sign - me being cautious it's the latter
BEdizen (7/1) and Bow School (14/1) are potential gambles but its a no play for me 4.6 win 1.7 place signifies a lack of confidence
330
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wildbach, 5/2 Palace Walk, 4/1 Zamboozle, 10/1 Hawksbury Heights, 14/1 Bramantino, Reflective Glory, 16/1 Silvo, 20/1 Irish Stream, Stormy Beech, 66/1 Amjad, Galloway Mac, Good Investment, Susiedil.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many with realistic claims and PALACE WALK, down in both grade and trip, can make the most of the weight he receives from Wildbach and Zamboozle |
Again drifts amongst the market leaders could signal that the betting forecaster in the Racing Post has Sedgefield all wrong or lack of general confidence today amongst punters
Another potential probability bet race with only 3 horses sub double figure odds.
Palace walk - 3.85 win 1.65 place
Wildbach 3.75 win 1.62 place
Zamboozle 6.8 win 2.28 place
400
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Wise Owl, 4/1 Norborne Bandit, 5/1 Rightful Ruler, 6/1 Cool Operator, 10/1 Cash Man, 14/1 Overbranch, Sir Monty, 20/1 Dont Ask Me, First Fought.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact he got turned over at short odds in a hurdle race here on his only previous visit has to sound a note of caution, but WISE OWL was just about the best of these in that discipline and he can be counted a shade unfortunate not to have opened his account over fences in a stronger race than this at Worcester last time. |
Again fav at 10/3 early market - coincidence that betting forecast and live market differ ?
This makes life difficult when interpreting these races 4 win 1.68 place
430
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Urban Warrior, 5/1 Think Lucky, 8/1 Corkage, Scutch Mill, 9/1 Parsou, 10/1 Alpha Juliet, Barney, 14/1 Lodgician, 20/1 Rival Bidder, 25/1 College City.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these can be given an each-way shout but URBAN WARRIOR (nap) is not easily opposed after winning with so much to spare at Plumpton, especially as there's probably even more improvement to come in this sphere. |
The only shortie whose price is reflected in the live market - watch out for Alpha Juliet trading at 5/1 from 10/1 betting forecast ( Scutch Mill a non runner might cause this price drop) but it makes Alpha a 2nd favourite 2.64 win 1.35 place
Alpha Juliet - 5.7 win 1.94 place
500
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Golden Feather, 6/1 Glimmer Of Light, 8/1 Whatcanyasay, 10/1 Schinken Otto, 12/1 Fred Bojangals, 20/1 Prince Car.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: GOLDEN FEATHER has made a flying start for Evan Williams and could easily run up a sequenc |
8/11 in the live market hardly the 1/2 expected - 6 runner race -2 to place and a handicap chase
1.75 win 1.36 place
250 SOUTHWELl
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Silent Wonder, 7/4 Plotting, 6/1 Risky Capital, 10/1 La Capriosa, 16/1 Accomplishment, 25/1 Ditto Ditto, Especially For You, Princess Rebecca, 66/1 Valdemar.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Risky Capital is an interesting newcomer but this looks between PLOTTING and Silent Wonder. Slight preference on her AW debut is for the former, who shaped with plenty of promise on her debut and, although she didn't build on that next time, she's well worth another chance in this company |
Potential 2 horse race - favourite is all weather debutant - 2 newcomers in this maiden -3 of the 9 are 33/1 or over - money for Silent wonder with Plotting out to 9/4 - interesting that the 2 newcomers are qoted 3rd and 4th market leaders in betting forecast
Silent Wonder 2.44 win 1.22 place
Plotting 3.3 win 1.33 place
240 WARWICK
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Baariq, 5/1 Royal Diamond, 11/2 Wilfred Pickles, 8/1 King´s Chorister, Larkham, 14/1 Belated Silver, 16/1 Moon Lightning, 20/1 Amazing Blue Sky, Play It Sam, 33/1 Dr Valentine, Night Knight, Remaah, 40/1 Restless Knight,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Peter Chapple-Hyam has an impressive 32% strike-rate with his 2yos here in recent years and BAARIQ can enhance his record, possibly at the main expense of Wilfred Pickles |
310
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Furious Belle, 6/1 Dahama, 8/1 Ariadnes Filly, Wabi Sabi, 10/1 Awfeyaa, 14/1 Honours Stride, 16/1 Good For Her, 20/1 Second To Nun, 33/1 Equinity, 40/1 Flavour, Lyra´s Daemon, Royal Superlative, 50/1 Cativo, Music In The Glen.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Furious Belle will be a warm favourite after her promising debut but the outside draw is no help and there could be value in taking her on (each-way) with DAHAMA, one of a number of her rivals who have shaped with promise |
Outside draw a concern here but how mch of a hindrance over 7 furlongs? 6 horses over 33/1 lessen the rivalry. Installed favourite after only one run . 2.74 win 1.33 place
SHORTLIST
Unappetising throughot all cards today with ifs and buts about everything
Very tricky today Place only on the market fav in the 330 SEDGEFIELD - probably Palace Walk in what looks a race conerning 3 horses - simply a probability bet
250 SOUTHWELL - back the fav to place in what looks to be a 2 horse race
No comments:
Post a Comment