25/9

Thumbs up out to 11/4 and my 11am update was right to be wary - unplaced

210 FONTWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Potemkin, 11/4 Tyrrells Wood, 7/2 Maxwil, 12/1 Tamrai Dancer, 14/1 Barney Again, 16/1 I Certainly May, 20/1 Hennalaine, Magpie, 25/1 Daarth, Dagua Briza, 33/1 Abfabfong, Dareios, Jolie Fleur, 50/1 Sawpit Solitaire.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Market confidence behind capable Flat recruits Maxwil and Tyrrells Wood would catch the eye, but they lack the hurdling experience of POTEMKIN, who shaped like a future winner at Market Rasen recently

no rpice gappers but a market move for Maxwil and a potential probability bet with 3 heading the market, but who to chose?
8 of the 14 are 66/1 or bigger
I may opt for the favourite in the live market to place here CURRENTLY MAXWIL 2.42 win 1.28 place

340
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Bremen, 3/1 Lyical Assassin, Shore Thing, 12/1 Isintshelovely, Quondor Noire, Rocky Ryan, 16/1 Bob Casey, Daring Approach, 25/1 Absolute Shambles, Mageniken, 33/1 Seyaadi, Upton Scarlet, 50/1 Panadin, The Slider.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The classy Bremen is respected at this proven course, but he's not the easiest to win with and might well have to settle for minor money behind SHORE THING (nap), who has made big strides as a hurdler over the summer and will handle conditions. The ex-Irish Lyical Assassin completes the shortlist.

Again not a price gapper but Shore thing is out and Bremen and Lyrical Asssassin share the top spot with a price shortening of Isntshelovely ( in response to Shore things absence)

NEGATIVE - novice hurdles - relative newscomers as the jumps season kicks off. FAV BREMEN IS 1.29 TO PLACE AND 2.36 TO PLACE

750 GREAT LEIGHS

BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Prescription, 7/2 Al Gillani, 8/1 Doubtful Sound, 9/1 Ruman, 14/1 Danzili Bay, 20/1 Corridor Creeper, 100/1 Beau Jazz.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRESCRIPTION is the archetypal Sir Mark Prescott handicapper that should be followed until she's beaten, even allowing this will be her third outing within nine days. Al Gillani is feared most. Flagged up but nbot shorlisted last time and won well, again favourite (4/5) and on a 4 timer - multiple handicap winner who will find it increasingly difficult with each ensuing run to keep winning - all bar the fron t2 in double figures. 1.78 WIN 1.29 PLACE 2 the place so we have to be spot on 320 PERTH BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Fairoak Lad, 9/4 Andrew Nick, 5/1 Manadam, Valerius, 20/1 Oshkosh, 33/1 Seeking Straight, 100/1 Bronze Dancer, Dance Sauvage, Mckinneys. Another novices hrdle and another 4 runner race it looks like - good to see 3 at 100/1 who shouldn't figure and hence leave 3 to beat to place Looks a choice of 1 from 4 to finish in the top 3 Fiaroak Lad - lots of Weight - Andrew Nick may be the one " an improver " says Spotlight 1.30 PLACE AND 3.1 WIN 520 BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Strong Rebel, 4/1 Tchang Goon, 10/1 Moscow Catch, Solway Star, 14/1 Tango Sally, 16/1 Spellchecker, 20/1 Braden Brook, 33/1 Claresburn, Enis Burdet, Flaygray, 50/1 Glorious Gin, Little Miss Insky, Mind Your Manners, Noble Vic. Conditional amateurs bumper race - I'll get me coat! Like flat maidens, the market is important - a degree of interest in the fav given its a Twiston'Davies horse 2.02 WIN 1.2 PLACE 230 PONTE BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Imaam, 7/1 Distinctive Spirit, 8/1 Goliaths Boy, 10/1 Big Apple Boy, 16/1 Embsay Crag, Final Salute, Hettie Hubble, Northern Flyer, 20/1 Oneofthesedayz, 33/1 Georgie Bee, Melkatant, 50/1 Bill On The Hill, Kannie Annie, 100/1 Eyesore. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: IMAAM has been an expensive failure on his last two starts, but has still achieved much more than any of his rivals here, shapes as if the drop to 6f won't be a problem, and should be hard to beat. A market move for newcomer Goliaths Boy would be of interest 3 second places and live market consultation necessary but one of the more likelier ones 1.54 WIN 1.11 PLACE 400 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Arganil, 6/1 Hotham, Mr Wolf, 15/2 Lake Chini, 10/1 Comptonspirit, 12/1 Make My Dream, 14/1 Angle Of Attack, Barraland, 16/1 Magical Speedfit, 20/1 Steel Blue, 25/1 Thunder Bay, Weet A Surprise, 33/1 Jonny Ebeneezer, Joyeaux, 66/1 Chookie Heiton, 100/1 Yorke´s Folly. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There have been more winners from the top half of the draw (19) than the bottom half (13) in 5f handicaps here over the last five years, so the biggest obstacles faced by the progressive ARGANIL here might be the ground, along with the presence of other front-runners. However, he looks well ahead of his mark at present (offically 6lb well in despite penalty) and can go in again. Course specialist Mr Wolf and Hotham look the best alternatives. 5 furlong 16 runner (reduced to 13 runner) handicap - significant becase it pays out 4 the place - make my dream 19/4 from 12/1 (compensating non runners?) may be significant along with drift in Arganil to an unsteady 5/2 3.45 WIN 1.47 PLACE 430 BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ascot Lime, 4/1 Fragrancy, Luberon, 9/2 Heaven Knows, 12/1 Granston, Kinsya, 16/1 Demolition, 25/1 Group Captain. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Sir Michael Stoute took this last year with the 3yo Gulf Express and has another leading contender in Ascot Lime who is going the right way now but has been expensive to follow (yet to start at bigger than 4-1, favourite four times). Preference is for LUBERON, who should find this race suiting his style better than the big-field handicaps he has contested the last twice and is more than capable of defying his current mark when the race goes his way. Group Captain non runner - need to check if Betfair still pay out 3 the place cos then this race will come into play - Ascot Lime may still be place material 2.82 WIN 1.36 PLACE - MAY BE SIGNIFICANT AS ONLY 7 RUNNERS - 3 TO PLACE AND STILL A RELATIVELY BIG PLACE ONLY PRICE 500 BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Custody, 9/4 Takaatuf, 8/1 Rebel Prince, 20/1 Dalesway, 50/1 Challenging, 66/1 Urban Space, 100/1 Duratwill, Saffron´s Son. SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth and a good opportunity for CUSTODY, from a yard with a good strike-rate here, to make it third time lucky. Takaatuf is the obvious danger.[AC] 3 debutants and we saw with Master Rooney yesterday ( debutants in field and he -at 1/20 odds to place - was unplaced) Immediately looks a 3 horse race if betting forecast accurate -live market prices as a 2 horse race 1.58 WIN - 1.05 PLACE YESTERDAY Although I did not bet Thumbs up given my 11am comments - 1.52 to place and 6/4 to win at the time - the place only price was suspiciously big in comparison and belied any confidence Using 2% compounding though, in an as if scenario, we only required a £5 stake to return £2.60 Now using loss retrieval , today's required return is £5 +£2.60 OR, given the short prices we are dealing with, an effort to just return lost stakes today with reduce outlay? Again decisions decisions. MAxwil and Andrew Nick for me today to look to (hypothetically) retrieve lost stake from yesterday