Monday, 15 September 2008

16/9

Well the fav in the highlighted race won, and I'm cursing my cautious attitude again!
Well, it's out again though with heavy at Haydock
420 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prescription, 5/1 Anosti, 6/1 Siren Party, 8/1 Maryolini, 10/1 Bahamian Bliss, Little Knickers, Miss Firefly, 16/1 Street Diva, 20/1 Apple Pie Order.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Siren Party and Prescription in particular have more to offer but this should be run at a good gallop and that will suit LITTLE KNICKERS, who ran well here after a break a fortnight ago.

Nice noticeable price gap here, but then we learn it's a fecking Class 5 apprentice handicap - as I'm writing the night before I cannot check the live market and see how solid or otherwise Prescription is
POSITIVES - " she rates a fascinating handicap prospect " - so says the analysis of the winning race
NEGATIVES - never run on all weather - apprentice jockey has never ridden horse before

520
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Spring Of Fame, 5/1 Wabi Sabi, 11/2 Rainbow Seeker, 8/1 Curacao, 10/1 La Tizona, 16/1 Banda Sea, Charlie Smirke, Mojeerr, 20/1 Edgeworth, Son Of The Cat, 25/1 Echo Forest, 33/1 Red Dagger,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are a couple of interesting newcomers to bear in mind but the most appealing option is SPRING OF FAME, who made good late headway on his Sandown debut. Rainbow Seeker may prove most troublesome.

Another eye catching price gap here bt let's look at the race more closely
Class 5 maiden with 13 runners and 6 debutants , and 6 horses who have only had the one run ( and are possible improvers for that expereince?)
None of the horses have run on an all weather track - some may take to it, others may not
THe price gapper ran in a better class race last time
"Spring Of Fame cost $170.000 and holds some high-profile entries. He looked like this experience would do him good and showed quitea bit of ability staying on steadily from a difficult position"

No bet can be made without consulting the live market

210 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Talk Of Saafend, 5/1 Valento, 6/1 Gang Show, 7/1 Redsensor, 8/1 Dry Speedfit, 14/1 Yakama, 16/1 Pebble Rock.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A market move for Gang Show would be interesting, but Richard Hannon looks to have found another good opportunity for TALK OF SAAFEND, who is 2-2 in claimers this year and seems to handle most ground.

Well it must be said that the price gaps in all cases thus far are eye catching.
A winner last time out (on the all weather) 10 points clear on RPR, BUT this is a lowly claimer.
Ground is not a concern, but as a 7 runner race, we only get paid out for 2 the place so have to be ULTRA confident about the selection to finish first or second

240 YARM
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 La Adelita, 9/2 Defector, 7/1 Calahonda, 8/1 Taazur, 10/1 Flintlock, 12/1 Hawkspur, Papa Meilland, Sapphire Prince, 16/1 Bermondsey Bob, Night Lily.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Michael Bell picked up a couple of nurseries at Doncaster last week and can take this with LA ADELITA (nap). The handicapper could have been tougher on this half-sister to the useful 3yo Easy Target and she can beat Defector and Calahonda.

Another price gapper ,this time in a nursery.
POSITIVES - Frankie Spencer on board (some will see this as a negative), and he won on her last time at 4/5 odds.
NEGATIVES - 16/1 the outsiders indicates a tightish affair.

As you can see a lot of negatives on all selections.
La Adelita and TAlk of Saafend are best of a bunch comprising a maiden on a new surface fav after only one run, a claimer, and apprentice handicap and a nursery

La Adelita then my one selection - only 7 to beat to place, I'm hoping Frank Spencer will do the horse justice.

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