back-lay-trade-horse-football is a blog for getting an edge in gambling. We cover backing horses,laying horses, and trading on the betting exchanges like Betfair. We also cover backing and laying in football matches ,the Premiership and other leagues. You can profit from soccer betting -we'll show you how.
Saturday 27 September 2008
27/9
Lesson learned yesterday - these maidens are very unpredictable, and yet again JAmie Spencer manages to get a favourite unplaced ( no conspiracy theories!) Pennys Gift - when you have a price gap of 6/4 - - - 14/1 well that says it all and Pennys Placed at 1.62 and that really should have been a selection on price gap alone regardless of the 29 runners!
So Chocalicious, despite, heavy support (in a nother maiden) unpalced and Standpoint a convenient (not) 4th I always chose just one a day so missed out on the first choice Chocalicious
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from RAINBOW VIEW who has oozed class in all her starts and clearly rates ahead of two of her principal rivals in Fantasia and Golden Stream on collateral formlines. That said, the latter pair, in company with Irish challenger Dreamtheimpossible, are unexposed and this could be messy with no guaranteed pace. Golden Stream is suggested as the best each-way option and forecast proposition
Well at least 4 perceived outsiders and a short priced favourite. 4 perceived outsiders - if we can be so bold as to dismiss their chances of invovement in the finish, then the remaining 4 horses have 1 to beat to place. 1.45 win 1.09 place Is there any reason why we cannot be adventrous here - I know yesterday I strayed from the rock solid selections but 4 horses, in the live market, are 50/1 or bigger so probability wise, can we not boost the 1.09 place for the obvious contender by backing one selection from the remaining 4? Most obvious is Fantasia -2nd fav at 1.61
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The European miling championship is up for grabs here and TAMAYUZ (nap) is expected to claim the crown. It was impossible not to be impressed with the way he brushed aside the opposition in the Marois and it looks like he has more to offer. Today's ground will suit Henrythenavigator better than that he encountered in the Moulin last time but he is no certainty to confirm his earlier superiority over Raven's Pass, who allowed the O'Brien colt first run in both the St James's Palace and the Sussex but has since shown that he does not need to be ridden with such exaggerated hold-up tactics
A potential 3 horse race here in a 7 runner field - so the 3 have to beat 1 horse to place PLACES Henry 1.47 Tamayuz - 1.67 Ravens Pass 1.97 Big rellative place only prices given only 2 the place
We have seen how poorly maidens have performed when "price gappers" -Imaan unplaced, MAster Rooney unplaced ( at 1/20 on to place) Of interest here is the 5 horses post 33/1 - support has come for the fav but this is another maiden fillies race
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:WELLINGTON SQUARE has shaped with promise on both starts to date and looks to have a good chance to get off the mark. Vine Street might be capable of better away from easy ground, whilst Scarab is worth a check in the market
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:HATTAN will be hard to beat if reproducing the form of his two Group Three Polytrack wins this year and he shapes as if this extra distance shouldn't be a problem. Red Gala looks the best alternative.[HT]
A potential 3 horse race and 3 to place - so its simply getting the right selection of the 3 most likely
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Lilly Blue could be hard to beat if she reproduces what she appeared to show at Goodwood but a more solid option may be fellow Classic entrant FALLEN IN LOVE, whose yard has won this race four times in the past decade. None of the newcomers hold fancy engagements but any market moves should be noted all the same.
Not another maiden! Fallen in lovce interestingly into 7/4 with Lilly Blue out to 4/1 but this did nothing for Chocalicious yesterday - Piquante a non runner makes life easier ( installed as 4th fav so one less rival to worry about)
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting event in which unbeaten chaser OUZBECK makes plenty of appeal. He's hardly put a foot wrong in three starts over fences, should have no problems with this longer trip and can take this en route to better things. My Turn Now looks the chief threat.
Little bit of money for My Turn now with fav currently 4/5 "should" have no problems with longer trip - if backing 4/5 we want to see " WILL" have no.... 8 runners is 3 the place - 2 horses at 40/1 and 100/1 should reduce the competitive field
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for easy C&D winner FRASCATI PARK to add to his tally. He lost nothing in defeat in a stronger race than this one at Galway when last seen in early August and is taken to beat Son Of Flicka.
A bumper race so market important
A lot to mull over today from a place only perspective. Obvious candidate is Rainbow View, but the obvious-ness is figured into the 1.09 price. SHORTLIST Perhaps Fantasia to place at 1.61 in the same race from a probability perspective? 1.48 for Henry the navigator is enticing? Perhaps in his race backing the live market favourite to place will ensure the most popular of the 3 most likely will be on our side The 850 at GReat LEighs is another possible probability type race
Current prices ( some 8+ hours till race goes off mind you!) Again perhaps the live market leader here to place?
FINAL SELECTION - will be in the first named race at Ascot and Fantasia to place from a probability perspective OR the 2nd favourite in the live market to Rainbow View if it is not Fantasia - this will enable us to capture any likely fancy. Of course rock solid is Rainbow view to keep the record up.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A true test looks assured but it can pay to take the slight risk about ORIZABA's stamina. There was no sign of him stopping over 7f at Goodwood and, with that form solid, he can defy a penalty at the main expense of highly promising Cityscape, who is taken to reverse Newmarket form with Almiqdaad now they are on an equal footing in terms of experience
Almiqdaad and Indian Ocean each way incasse the front 2 don't consent to give their rnning
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Scottish raider Dhaular Dhar deserves a big prize after his fine C&D seconds in the Buckingham Palace and the totesport International and back under his ideal conditions he has to be high on the list. The smart Polytrack performer Atlantic Story is also interesting now back at a more suitable trip off his lower grass mark as this surface should prove ideal, but preference is for RELATIVE ORDER who has done nothing but improve all year and has won his only start on the track.
Huge field - lowest price is 12/1 the fav! I will ignore all selections 20/1 and lower and chance Signor Peltro ( 22/1) , Golden Desert ( 25/1) and Extraterrestrial(25/1) the next 3 over 20/1 each way - I expect no return whatsoever bt, hey, at the prices.....!
415 ASCOT -using speciailist software I would engineer a win on Tamayuz and break even on the other 2 horses just to speculatie on the piggy in the middle! - stakes are just for examples sake.
You are betting FOR Henrythenavigator to win.You are betting FOR Henrythenavigator to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £120.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £158.40. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
Tamayuz
3.25
£100.00
£225.00
You are betting FOR Tamayuz to win.You are betting FOR Tamayuz to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £100.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £225.00. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:PERSIAN MEMORIES ran way above market expectations at Goodwood when last seen and is taken to progress past 76-rated Purple Sage.
Diamond Surprise each way for me with Damselfly a non runner and the race type hopefully ensuring one ( or preferably both) of the first 2 dont give their running
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Well-bred SURREALISM was a bit green on her debut but showed plenty of promise and should be more clued up this time. She'll take a bit of beating, especially if she's positively ridden to take advantage of her draw on the inside rail, with her more dangerous opponents, Filigree Lace, Royal Manor and Hamalka all drawn quite wide
Emirates LAdy and Cullybackety each way given the race type - 5th and 7th betting forecast favs
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Lilly Blue could be hard to beat if she reproduces what she appeared to show at Goodwood but a more solid option may be fellow Classic entrant FALLEN IN LOVE, whose yard has won this race four times in the past decade. None of the newcomers hold fancy engagements but any market moves should be noted all the same.
Maiden fillies - Chance Bessie Lou and Valletta each way
135 MR - chance on first 3 - all over 3/1 so backable to level stakes
Unfurled
4.5
£10.00
£35.00
You are betting FOR Unfurled to win.You are betting FOR Unfurled to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £10.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £35.00. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
Maslak
4.4
£10.00
£34.00
You are betting FOR Maslak to win.You are betting FOR Maslak to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £10.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £34.00. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting event in which unbeaten chaser OUZBECK makes plenty of appeal. He's hardly put a foot wrong in three starts over fences, should have no problems with this longer trip and can take this en route to better things. My Turn Now looks the chief threat.
No comments:
Post a Comment