Monday 22 September 2008

22/9

Well the umming an ahhing paid off with my final call of Knot in Wood to place above Merchant of Dubai and it proved correct with the former winning - it was the probability that swung it despite the horse coming out only a day after a competitive race in soft
HAMILTON - soft, heavy in places
310
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Prescription, 6/1 Artistic License, Swift Princess, 8/1 Sudden Impact, 14/1 Ingleby Princess, 16/1 Feisty Royale, Linda Green,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Swift Princess has her conditions, while Artistic License comes here in cracking form, and that pair should give PRESCRIPTION more to think about than on the AW last week. However, so much did the selection have in hand at Lingfield that it's hard to look beyond her off the same mark

Has won trwice already and certainly priced up to be competitive again - 1.61 win and 1.29 place - NOTE pays out only 2 the place despite 8 runners in the Racing Post - worth checking always - naturally 3 the place in favoured as we have to be spot on regarding selections

440
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Expresso Star, 3/1 Hydrophonic, 5/1 Proficiency, 25/1 Sheik´N´Knotsterd, Sunset Resort, 33/1 Lilly Grove, 50/1 Admiralcollingwood, Take To The Skies.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Taking short prices about horses unproven on the ground in late-season maidens isn't for everyone but EXPRESSO STAR should be too good for this lot

Very interesting market for place backers - potential 3 horse race - note of caution regarding Spotlight's comments - that said fav has hardened into 4/9 - 1.46 the win, 1.07 the place - significant support all day for this one despite the ground

250 LEICESTER

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 All In The Red, 8/1 Charlie Allnut, Gower Belle, 10/1 Jal Music, Redsensor, 12/1 Deal Flipper, 14/1 Klarity, Townkab, 16/1 Rossini Byline, Veni Bidi Vici, 20/1 Tapas Lad, The Hoofer, 25/1 Cool Fashion, Jimmy Dean, Lechero, Veronicas Way, Wooden King, 33/1 Silver Deal.

MArked drop into selling company and a noticeable price gap BUT the race type and race size are offputting - 5/4 in the early market signals confidence though 2.18 win 1.35 place

Analysis of last race
" All In The Red is a consistent type and was in the process of once again getting in the mix for the places when hampered in the barging match started by the eventual winner"

Here we have a horse now at 5/4 who has been running into places bar the last race ( see above for "excuse".
18 runners is very offputting indeed but I will chance All in the red against my better judgement with the drop in class - ULTRA SAFE is Exspresso star

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