Friday 12 September 2008

13/9

Everything mentioned placed, and without checking, won, but that's a moot point. The run continues - Steviw Junior was the fav in the Wolves race and suly placed to get my 2%
CHESTER
330
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Look Busy, 4/1 Manzila, 8/1 Angus Newz, Gentle Guru, 12/1 Crystany, 16/1 Quiet Elegance, 20/1 Boule Masquee, 25/1 Topflightcoolracer, 33/1 Coconut Moon, Tilly´s Dream, 50/1 Now You See Me.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Alan Berry's win machine LOOK BUSY (nap) has been progressing steadily throughout the campaign and, from a good draw, she's taken to notch her first success at much beyond 5f, probably at the main expense of Manzila, with Gentle Guru a possible surprise package.

Yes, another high class race which means we cannot readily dismiss anything, including the outsiders -this is class 1 , listed so to say Look Busy is a sure thing to win, let alone place is folly

11 horse race and 3 the place -wouldnt be top of my list to place

135 DONNY
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Zacinto, 4/1 Playfellow, 5/1 Westphalia, 11/2 Master Noverre, 13/2 War Native, 12/1 Jazz Police, 20/1 Ouqba, 100/1 Are Can.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ZACINTO is likely to be priced up more on potential than on the bare form of his wide-margin dismissal of weak opposition on his debut at Sandown in July but still appeals most. Of his two rivals with better form, Westphalia needs to banish the memory of a very disappointing run last time, while Master Noverre's Gimcrack second is unexceptional in the context of a Champagne Stakes and suggests he ought to be vulnerable to rivals improving past him

Soft ground to contend with here and taking on an Aiden O'BRien horse is not something I would recommend (Westphalia)
Positives - 3 to place
NEgatives - high class field ( again) - soft ground

430 GOODWOOD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Contretemps, 9/2 Silver Print, 5/1 Mt Kintyre, 8/1 Aqwaal, Itlaaq, 12/1 Princability, 16/1 Seaquel, 33/1 Royal Toerag.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Contretemps has an obvious chance of getting off the mark here following his promising debut, but he has to prove his effectiveness on this sort of ground and preference is for MT KINTYRE, who shaped with credit on his debut considering his stable's record with 2yo newcomers.
Soft ground maiden race - nice price gap here - only run once and interesting that Spotlight mentions horse is debutant on soft ground ( which may worsen with more rain?)

245 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 6/5 Servoca, 6/1 Chambers, Comadoir, 8/1 Desert Falls, Point Of Light, 12/1 Law And Order, 14/1 Celtic Rebel, Mac´s Power, 50/1 Arteus, Pure Rhythm, Wicklewood.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Servoca sets the standard once more but he has been beaten at 3-1 or shorter on four of his last five starts and he's not one to get stuck into at a short price. Law And Order is capable of better but CHAMBERS looks the part on pedigree and could be worth chancing on debut
Nice price gap - no ground concerns on the all weatther - another maiden race and a horse placing consistently and could well do so again - experienced as a maiden having run plenty of times
NEGATIVES - debutant on the all weather - 4 debutants who could be anything but this is one of the better place only selections today for me on the proviso that the live market must be looked at given the newcomers and the fav being a debutant on the surface

650 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Everyman, 5/1 Play Up Pompey, 8/1 Fantasy Crusader, 9/1 The Grey One, 12/1 A One, Havanavich, Joe Jo Star, Katy Kitten, Personify, 14/1 Golden Brown, 33/1 Kadouchski, Tinted View, 50/1 Age Of Miracles,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond EVERYMAN, who is expected to confirm last week's Great Leighs superiority over Play Up Pompey and Golden Brown
A handicap here - taken by "hard to look beyond" in SPotlight but not happy that it is a handicap of 14 runners

Looks like Servoca to place for me today despite its debutant status on the surface at GReat Leighs - its consistency in the place only market in previous running augurs well and I MUST look at the live market as it is a maiden and there are other debutants

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