Tuesday 23 September 2008

23/9

3 out of 3 win yesterday ,but of course I am only interested in the place and All in the Red was a slightly risky selection but won

Expresso star my rock solid, won by 18 lengths LOL!

200 BEVERLEY
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Amour Propre, 15/8 Blades Princess, 5/1 Glamorous Spirit, 20/1 Captain Scooby, Love You Louis, 50/1 Cindy Incidentally, Wrens Hope.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There has to be a doubt whether Amour Propre, having shone on firm ground, will prove equally at home on a soft surface and he may struggle to give the weight to the unexposed BLADES PRINCESS

Another probability bet perhaps - Amour Propre is out -Glamouous Spirit and Blades Princess are heading the market
If this still pays out 2 the place then for me Blades Princess looks good place material for coming in the first 2 1.97 win, 1.21 place

300

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Pondapie, 11/2 Jane Of Arc, Run Free, 6/1 Sorrento Moon, 7/1 Still Calm, 8/1 Lady Killer Queen, 16/1 Valentine Blue, 25/1 Babieca, General Tufto, 33/1 Ellies Faith, Foxxy, Pugnacity.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pondapie stands out on the ratings but whether he is the sort to be backing at a short price even in this company is debatable. With stamina doubts about Run Free and question marks over the wellbeing of Still Calm, SORRENTO MOON gets a tentative vote

A seller and a drift early on out to 9/4 - not as rock solid as All in the Red yesterday who was dropping in class significantly 3.35 win, 1.55 place

220 FOLKSTONE

BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fast Freddie, 5/1 Overstayed, 15/2 Penrice Castle, 8/1 Black Moma, 10/1 Multahab, Wynberg, 12/1 Affirmatively, Azygous, Bluebok, 14/1 Jayanjay, 20/1 Bookiesindex Boy, 33/1 One Way Ticket, 50/1 Spanish Ace, Swindon Town Flyer.

Possible price gapper here but it is nmot a very significant price gap - on the plus side 2 2nd places augur well for placing? 3.15 win, 1.61 place

250
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Caledonia Princess, 11/2 Key To Love, 8/1 Turn To Dreams, 9/1 Rapanui Belle, 12/1 Kayceebee, Silver Salsa, 16/1 Edith´s Boy, Itainteasybeingme, Place The Duchess, 33/1 Goodenough Magic, Sorrel Ridge.

A 5 furlong nursert - not the ideal race for me - only ran yesterday BUT so did Knot in Wood a couple of days ago and he bolted home 2.58 win, 1.38 place

320
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Anne Of Kiev, 5/1 Perfect Silence, 12/1 Warden Fizz, 16/1 Chelsea Girl, Motivated Choice, Pappoose, 20/1 Kenton Street, 25/1 Chinese Profit, Milldown Bay, 50/1 Solemn, 66/1 Faintly Hopeful, 100/1 Heroic Fool, 200/1 Fervent.

33 day absence not too worrying - only one run on turf - 2 placed efforts on the all weather - 2/5 in the live market 1.4 win, 1.11 place

240 SEDG
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Ellerslie Tom, 6/1 Artless, Roman Villa, 8/1 Film Festival, Master Nimbus, 10/1 Is It Me, Overbranch, 12/1 Orpen Wide, 20/1 All For The Cause, 33/1 Commanche Topgun, 66/1 New Wish, 100/1 Lindseyfield Lodge.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting race of its kind for this time of year but there's no great temptation to take on ELLERSLIE TOM (nap), who has shown himself to be useful over hurdles and fences when getting his ground

Regular readers will know why I left the first race out - yes a maiden hurdle!

This is a novices chase and the price gapper here has placed last 3 times - 3 perceived outsiders reduce the field to 9 so he only has 6 to beat to place. Richard Johnson up and he's solid enough - negatives - obstacles 2.44 win, 1.34 place

310

BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Supreme Being, 5/1 Lord On The Run, Monsieur, 10/1 Hawksbury Heights, Nelsons Column, 16/1 Deramore Rythm, Zibeline, 20/1 Amjad, 25/1 Little Task, Mulligan´s Pride, 33/1 Golden Streak, Legend Again, Spivitus, 66/1 Saddlers Singer.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was a better seller than this that SUPREME BEING won at Newton Abbot and, with Tony McCoy staying loyal, he has every chance of following up. Patrick Haslam's pair, Lord On The Run and Monsieur, head the dangers.[

Another price gapper butr in a seller here - does have AP McCoy on board and is 11/10 now ( in reaction to AP?) 1.99 win, 1.29 place

A lot of potential price gappers here today but who to chose to place. A couple are priced at 1.55 and 1.61 which are relatively big for placing and may be a clue that these races are to be avoided

Anne of Kiev - 5 of the 13 runners are 66/1 or over and hopefully can be discounted for place purposes - leaving 8 competitive? With 8 left who should be involkved, Anne of Kiev needs to beat 5 to place

1.11 is tight but that will be my rock solid selection today. Others come over obstacles in Sedgefield and anything can happen, and with Supreme Being, we have the mighty McCoy but a horse who is in a seller for a reason and may not be reliable
Blades PRincess at 1.21 is a better priced selection - 5 runners - one clear outsider reducing the fight to 4 horses to place in the first 2 - probability wise Blades, as a tight market leader from the betting forecaster's perspective, has 2 to beat to place and is well worth the chance I think at a better price.

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