Soft, HEavy in places at Hamilton
410 HAM
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Knot In Wood, 4/1 Burnwynd Boy, 9/2 Cake, 5/1 Ponty Rossa, 10/1 Pawan, 150/1 Fern House, 200/1 Howards Prince, Seafield Towers.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There must be some doubt about the participation of Burnwynd Boy and KNOT IN WOOD after their Ayr exertions, but the latter would clearly be the one to beat if Richard Fahey is satisfied that he has emerged unscathed. Ponty Rossa may be the one to benefit if Knot In Wood does not turn up or fails to do himself justice |
Nice price gap, 8 runners pays 3 the place and 3 definite outsiders augrs well for Knot in Wood to place
NEGATIVES - only 1 day since last run and on ground soft, heavy in places, this may be offputting especially with 3 around the 4/1 marker
440
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Merchant Of Dubai, 5/1 Always Bold, 6/1 Hurlingham, Lochiel, 8/1 Mirjan, 12/1 Acropolis, 16/1 Zeitgeist, 20/1 Channel Crossing.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Another performance like the one he produced six days ago would see MERCHANT OF DUBAI (nap) complete a quick double. Lochiel is feared most.[ |
Under a penalty this time and price gap has remained in the live market
Big fields and jumps temper enthusiasm at Uttoxeter.
Merchant of Dubai is slightly favoured by me over Knot in Wood - my concern with the latter is the fact he ran in a competitive Ayr Gold Cup only yesterday - 1.34 to place. Concern here is with the tightness of the market. In Knot in Wood's race we have clear outsiders reducing the competitive field to 5 .
It's a tricky one today - probability tells me that Knot in Wood has the better chance of placing, having only 2 to beat to place - 1.98 win and 1.19 place as against Merchant of Dubai 1.34 to place - back into a class 3 from a class 5 in which he won so convincingly last time - the analysis there telling us the horse loved the ground conditions and trip, BUT what of the poor class 3 form?
Knot in Wood it be then for me to place at an unappetising 1.19 based solely on probability
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