410 BATH
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Madam President, 7/2 Orange River, 4/1 Beauchamp Wonder, Suede, 6/1 Basanti, 20/1 Ochenvay, 33/1 Nyumba, 50/1 Dawn Wind, Les Allues,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looked weak before the withdrawal of Sayyedati Symphony and the market will help in several cases. As things stand, MADAM PRESIDENT, who ran in a better race at Windsor last time, is given the chance to confirm debut promise |
Possible probability bet here- 4 over 20/1 can be dismissed? 5 horses in it to place - 3 will place so 2 to dismiss. Perhaps the fav in the live betting market is the one to chose? 3.8 win 1.5 place - very tight head of the market here with 5 horses between 1.5 and 2 in place only odds
NEGATIVES - maiden fillies event
220 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Super Fourteen, 5/2 Molnaya, 7/2 Parc Des Princes, 14/1 Captain Kallis, 20/1 Echo Forest, Tobizzy, 25/1 Viking Rock, 33/1 Chicory Cottage, 50/1 Definite Honey.
Another probability race but Viking Rock, a debutant , is crrently 12/1 - money for this one in this maiden? Could be significant
Super Fourteen could be the one having had plenty of runs. Molnaya is a debutant and nearer market rival - 2.74 win, 1.26 place Viking Rock is 3.15 for the place if the market move is sustained up to the race time
320 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Obe Brave, 6/1 Punching, Seneschal, 8/1 Ten To The Dozen, 12/1 Banjo Patterson, Majestical, Sticky Tape, 16/1 Turkish Sultan, 20/1 Balerno, Border Artist, Summer Recluse, 25/1 Rosie Cross, 33/1 Coup D´Etat, Stargazy, 50/1 Chalentina, 66/1 Mine The Balance.
16 runner claimer is hardly awe inspiring - Obe brave now out to 5/2 which doesn't augur well. Too mch can go wrong in a race of this type for me - 3.5 win 1.61 place - the place odds give away the game here - looks far too big to be a safe bet
230 WINDSOR
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tubby Isaacs, 8/1 Haajes, Make My Dream, Peter Island, 10/1 War And Peace, 12/1 Alfresco, Memphis Man, 14/1 Adantino, Anosti, Candela Bay, 16/1 Harlech Castle, Luminous Gold, 20/1 Maryolini, 33/1 Brunelleschi, Leading Edge, We Have A Dream.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of in-form types on show here and the likes of Peter Island, Haajes and Adantino are all respected. TUBBY ISAACS has begun life at the right end of the weights though and a 7lb rise is unlikely to be enough to prevent him completing the hat-trick.[PSm] |
On a hatrick and currently out to 7/2 doesn't look too positive - 4 the place at least in this 16 runner handicap 4.8 win 1.72 place - see above
400
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Agente Parmigiano has stacks in hand on BHA ratings and the evidence of his latest start would suggest that he isn't flattered by his current mark. He hasn't always looked straightforward though and this trip isn't certain to suit. Abuelito John looks the pick of those to have run in sellers previously but VIRGINIA'S CHOICE turned in an improved performance at Salisbury last time and could be the one to be with this time. |
Strong fav but a seller - crrently evens so there is spport -Virginias Choice is the only other horse not in double figure odds and were it not for the race type, this could be a good place only bet 1.25 place and 1.99 win on fav BUT Virginias choice is 2.06 place (albeit in a market where there is little punter involvement)
500
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Blessing, 7/2 Special Reserve, 7/1 Majeen, 10/1 Fastella, 14/1 Manere Bay, 25/1 Desert Kiss, 66/1 Giadiniera, Moandei, 100/1 Colonel Sherman, Danse De Sioux, King´s Colour, Scania Classic, Search Me, Young Ollie.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Special Reserve and Majeen have become expensive to follow and this looks a good opportunity for BLESSING, whose Newmarket second to Mawatheeq is working out well. |
Another maiden race in a day full of big fields and poor race types. Another potential probability bet if the market is accrate. Early prices indicate 7 of the 14 runners are 100/1 or bigger and can hopefully be dismissed. This, of course, makes life a lot easier for the remaining 7 who only have 4 to beat to place. Of the remaining 7, 2 are 33/1 and one is 50/1. Th head of the market - 4/6, 3/1 and 8/1 - perhaps this 3/1 shot is interesting from a "fantasia" like enhanced place only bet, avoiding the favourite? 1.61 win 1.12 place - Frankie Dettori on board ( not Spencer!) - Special reserve 1.33 place
SHORTLIST
MArket favourite in the 410 at BAth from a probability perspective only really has 2 to beat to place - I presume it will be Madam President - 1.5 place only indicates the first 5 all have chances here but in our favour is probability - it's a simple role of the dice - 3 of the 5 will place but which 3?
Agent Parmagio is interesting as there has been support for him but it is a big field seller - againcan we be speculative on Virginias Choice to place as the only other horse under double figure odds? - evens for Virginias choice is a little bit of a risk but might be worth taking?
Super Fourteen is another probability bet but what of the potential market mover - he will have to be monitored and to be fair, 3.15 , with 2% compounding target, means much reduced stakes but is far more speculative
ONE BET - will be Super Fourteen today I think - the market move not withstanding, I am taken by the probability aspect again. Wold be interesting to see how Virginias Choice runs
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