I will start a compounding log out of interest here as its the 1st October starting with £100
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Stevie Junior, 4/1 Aathaar, 11/2 Silver Print, 13/2 First Queen, 10/1 Bright Enough, 12/1 Fisher Hill, Rockfella, 20/1 Flashgun, In Transit.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to look beyond the unexposed STEVIE JUNIOR, who impressed when opening his account at Wolverhampton and ought to possess the quality to carry top weight to success at this level |
And we have some 7 hourse to the off but initial signs are positive - 1.75 win 1.13 place
210 NEWCASTLE
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Yorksters Girl, 6/1 Hector´s House, What A Day, 8/1 Denton Diva, 14/1 Longboat Key, 16/1 Hawkleaf Flier, 20/1 Allformary, Liberty Estelle, 25/1 Asserting, Mythical Thrill, 33/1 High Tensile, Markadam, Our Apolonia, 66/1 Cavitie, Transporter, 100/1 Le Petit Vigier.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for YORKSTERS GIRL, who handles soft ground and stays this trip, to get off the mark. Hector's House may be the one to give her most to do. |
Heavy ground a concern with this big field maiden but we are told the market leader handles soft ground. May be a place only play if there are some late withdrawals due to ground? 1.93 win 1.20 place
310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Prime Mood, 7/1 Count Almaviva, York Key Bar, 10/1 Chambers, Mister Tinktastic, Mohawk Ridge, Starla Dancer, 14/1 Dreamonandon, Embsay Crag, Speed Dating, 20/1 Northern Flyer, 33/1 Gibson Square, 66/1 Bun Penny, Lady Zena, 100/1 Freddie Bolt.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PRIME MOOD has had a few chances but he looks a better performer in testing ground and has a fine opportunity of getting off the mark under suitable conditions. Count Almaviva and Mohawk Ridge may be best of the remainder |
Another price gapper we are told handles soft ground 2.34 1.28 win/place
345
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Montaff, 7/2 Alanbrooke, 10/1 Graycliffe, Hard Luck Story, Royal Trooper, 14/1 Akmal, 20/1 Haulage Lady, Penolva, 25/1 Radegund Abbey, 33/1 Elevate Bambina, 66/1 Amba.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Little strength in depth. MONTAFF (nap) shaped with a good deal of promise on soft ground on his debut and is taken to beat Alanbrooke, who is also entitled to come on for his debut experience. |
6 horses left contesting this with Montaff amongst the survivors - a great probability place only bet with 3 the place on BEtfair (need to confirm though) 1.65/1.05 win /place ( 3 to place)
220 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fitz Flyer, 5/1 Master Lightfoot, 7/1 Enderby Spirit, 10/1 Boho Chic, Perfect Class, 12/1 Ben´s Dream, 14/1 Art Fund, 16/1 Esprit De Midas, 33/1 Dynamo Dane, 50/1 Arachnophobia, 66/1 Celtic Rebel, 100/1 Bulella, Excitable, Wicklewood.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A reproduction of any of FITZ FLYER (nap)'s four efforts could well be good enough and there appears nothing of the calibre of Master Noverre, Weatherstaff, Elnawin or Bonnie Charlie to worry about this time |
5 furlong 2 year old maiden -noticeable price gapper - just noticed he's a non runner - oh well
355
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Damini, 9/2 My Chestnut Girl, 6/1 Sampi, 8/1 Lonely Star, 10/1 Charlotte Point, Paquerettza, 14/1 Spirit Of Dubai, 16/1 Welsh Anthem, 20/1 Penzena, 25/1 New Beginning, Tricky Situation, 40/1 Good Queen Best, 50/1 Astrobrava, 66/1 Baby Is Here.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: More than half the field have yet to race and another event in which the betting should add some important clues. DAMINI has experience on her side, can improve again with the step up to 1m and may be equal to the task. My Chestnut Girl is of obvious interest among the newcomers. |
Another maiden fillies event -not solid for me 2.3 / 1.34 win/place
425
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Otaared, 4/1 Act Of Diplomacy, 8/1 Red Jade, 12/1 Planetary Motion, Taqdeyr, 16/1 Cara´s Request, Danse The Blues, Lease Of Life, 20/1 Qeyaada, Quick Off The Mark, 25/1 Antillia, 33/1 Top Tribute, 50/1 Kiss Me Hardy, 100/1 Alyseve, Golondrina, Miss Medusa,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OTAARED only ran once last summer and has been off since the Craven Meeting, so all has clearly not gone to plan, but that comeback second to Virtual has worked out plenty well enough among the principals. Mega-pricey Act Of Diplomacy has it to prove after Kempton. |
Big field - Acto of Diplomacy shortened up -7 horses at 33/1 or bigger - can we dismiss these?
2.94/1.46 win /place - watch out for Actof Diplomacy - Frankie on board
ONE A DAY
Obvious candidate in Montaff with a redced field still paying out for the first 3 BUT heavy ground too - still only has 3 to beat to place
COMPOUNDING
Start with a nominal £1000 bank and look to win 3/4% per day (3 quarters%)
DAY 1 Target £7.50 STAKE £158
OR 2% compounding with a £100 bank
DAY 1 Target £2 STAKE £43 at 1.05
Heavy ground is the concern with the above so I'm just playing the probabilities here with 6 running and 3 placed
Looking below - could we not speculate on one horse in the field to finish placed instead of this bad priced fav
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Perhaps Graycliffe whose price seems out of kilter at this stage at 1.98 to place instead of the 1.05 seemingly sure thing - £8.10 to win £7.50 and £2.20 to win £2
I will take a risk today with this one purely based on the hope he can beat 3 others and get in the first 3 Ragelund abbey looks out of it (hopefully) Using loss retrieval,stakes are not worth worrying about BUT with Montaff, trying to retrieve £158 in the place market is a concern!
Stevie Junior also interests today, and the others I will put a line through given race type and ground
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