Loss retrieval then on Popeil who placed and I personally followed up with Caheresdotcom who placed 3rd.
BUSY DAY TODAY
Catterick
410
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Goliaths Boy, 5/2 Madam´X, 8/1 Dillenda, Molesden Glen, 10/1 Blue Noodles, 12/1 Great Charter, Solis, 16/1 Strevelyn, 33/1 Mull Of Fire, 66/1 Le Petit Vigier.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Madam X has obvious claims given the record of her yard here, but she faces a tough opponent in GOLIATHS BOY and he can carry on the good recent run of his yard |
Taken by Goliath Boys live market price of 5/6 - significant? Class 6 maiden - 10 runners - 1 non runner - 3 to place - 1.86/1.11
3 debutants bt they are priced to be not competitive today
2 outsiders at 66/1 and 80/1 shouldn't figure at the business end
Fav has been placed in class 4 and class 5 - this is class 6.
Negatives - Jockey is 6% strike rate for the trainer with 2 year olds which is a poor %
Good to soft ground - what chance it turns soft?
But i ask - why 5/6?
400 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Simondiun, 5/2 Indian Pipe Dream, 9/2 Strong Rebel, 5/1 Valerius, 9/1 Arnold Layne, 10/1 Diablo, 11/1 Cullahill, 50/1 Sterling Moll, 100/1 Another Conker, 150/1 Roseville.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: INDIAN PIPE DREAM is finally translating something akin to his old useful Flat form to hurdles and, with more possibly to come, may be able to confirm latest Newton Abbot placings with Simondiun, despite that horse being weighted to reverse things with a 5lb pull. Unbeaten Strong Rebel is a very interesting recruit to hurdles worthy of considerable respect too |
The big boys take up positions 1 and 2 in the ebtting forecast - 3 horses at 250/1 or bigger reduce the competitive field down to 7 - 3 to place meaning only 4 horses to beat to place for the shortlisters!
The first 4 in the early market are the first 4 in the ebtting forecast so it's a case of selecting one of those 4 to place!
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255 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gluteus Maximus, 11/4 Vilasol, 8/1 Lough Mist, 12/1 Law Officer, 14/1 Kilmagner, 25/1 Tesir, 33/1 Watch The Flame, 50/1 Amazing Hyde.
O'Brien/Heffernan jolly here - offputting is the ground conditions and the fact that Ireland is a palce where odds on shots find difficulty in winning - 1.96 / 1.19
510 CORK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tuscan Evening, 4/1 Thoroughly Red, 6/1 Zarilan, 10/1 Gratified, Karma Lina, Super Sophie, 12/1 Andre Mon Ami, Aughcarra, 14/1 Cullenstownstrand, Surfer Girl, Talkin Kate, 20/1 Liberta, 25/1 Here Comes Billy, Our Swallow, 33/1 Labasheeda, Mystic Honey, 50/1 Milloaks, Rio Rouge,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Famous last words possibly, but TUSCAN EVENING is close to unopposable if capable of producing her best. One of the better 2yo maidens around last season, she showed herself to be amongst the better 3yo fillies around when running a huge race in the Irish 1,000 Guineas back in May. Her demotion to fourth place led to a very protracted appeal which ultimately failed and she was unable to run up to that level in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot subsequently, but this race represents a massive drop in class. In addition, she was a close third in the Debutante Stakes on testing ground as a 2yo, so her ability to handle this ground is not in question. It would be a huge shock if there was anything good enough to beat her in this race.\n |
240 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Doeslessthanme, 4/1 Pakineo Des Pictons, Son Of Flicka, 10/1 Tiraaz To Carbury, 14/1 Border Reiver, 25/1 Adieu Mari, Linda´s Theatre, Newsham Glory, 33/1 Crystal Witch, Grand Union, Putitawayforayear, 66/1 Cross The Palm, Ella Maccadella, Formby, Miss Colima, Water Music.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Howard Johnson has already introduced some nice prospects this season and DOESLESSTHANME looks another, as the form of his latest bumper win at Doncaster was given an almighty boost when the second went one better next time in the Grade 2 at Aintree on Grand National day. Son Of Flicka is a solid alternative |
Odds on in an 18 runner race always catches the eye and the look of the betting forecast shows perhaps this will really concern the first 3 ( stretching to first 5 ) in the betting
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Absence to overcome for this one - 8 of the 16 are 50/1 or bigger which perhaps lessens the task of the main protagonists placing, and like the earlier race mentioned it may be a matter of selecting the right one from the front 3 to place
315
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Kalahari King, 7/4 Bywell Beau, 9/1 Summer Soul, 14/1 Industrial Star, 16/1 Cast Iron Casey, 20/1 Lord Samposin, 33/1 Hurricane Basil, Island Key, 40/1 Spivitus, 50/1 Athollbrose, 66/1 Frith, Witch Power.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KALAHARI KING and Bywell Beau are miles clear of the rest on hurdles form but the latter, admirable sort though he is, had dramatic shortcomings as a novice chaser last term thanks to his tendency to jump right. |
Beginners chase - the clue is in the title! Looks for al the world like a 2 horse race and it is a matter again of picking the right one of these 2 to place 1.87/1.22
235 NMKT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Rip Van Winkle, 9/2 Ashram, 7/1 Delegator, 10/1 Soul City, 12/1 Huntdown, Shaweel, 20/1 Finjaan, Lord Shanakill, 25/1 Intense Focus, 33/1 Ouqba, 66/1 Galpin Junior, 200/1 Prime Delivery, 250/1 Egypt.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ante-post prices offered about Rip Van Winkle looked ridiculously short for a relatively unproven colt, especially with Aidan O'Brien having won with only one of the 11 2yos he has run in Britain this year, and there are attractive each-way alternatives. SHAWEEL looks overpriced on his Group 1 second in Ireland and it be unwise to write down the form following Mastercraftman's excusable subsequent failure. Shaweel has had a good break since and may prove too good for Ashram.[ |
Highly competitive and as we saw with Laddies Poker 2 yesterday, short priced favs can get turned over because in these quality fields all horses merit consideration.
O'Brien/Murtagh horse the only saving grace but look at the number of 1's in the form column for all horses 2.98 / 1.65 - the place price tells you all you need to know!¬
310
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 New Approach, 4/1 Russian Cross, 6/1 Twice Over, 13/2 Pipedreamer, 12/1 Linngari, 14/1 Traffic Guard, 20/1 Hebridean, 33/1 City Leader, 40/1 Full Of Gold, 100/1 Staying On, 500/1 Upton Grey.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: French-trained horses have a fine record in this race over the years and Russian Cross is an interesting contender now tackling Group 1 company for the first time, but a peak-form NEW APPROACH will be hard to beat. The Derby winner has not been at his very best either start since his return from his enforced mid-season break but he still got the job done in the Irish Champion when beating Traffic Guard and this track clearly suits him well. Linngari and Pipedreamer are the pick of the remainder |
Standout fav has served me well in the past. 2.5 / 1.33
500
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Unsung Heroine, 9/4 Dar Re Mi, 9/2 Crystal Capella, 7/1 Shreyas, 12/1 Under The Rainbow, 20/1 Saphira´s Fire, 25/1 Armure, 33/1 Perihelion, 50/1 Sail.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There may be more to come from Leger runner-up UNSUNG HEROINE and she is preferred to Dar Re Mi who was not quite at her best when third at Longchamp a fortnight ago and has had a tough season. Crystal Capella, who is chasing a five-timer, and Shreyas, who will be suited by the step up in trip, should not be discounted either |
3 horse race - again which of the 3 will be a nailed on placer?May be unsung heroine for me, and one of the competitors is chasing a 5 timer -and sequentially it will be increasingly more difficult to win
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SHORTLIST
New Approach at 1.33 should give a good account (310pm)
Tuscan Evening -1.35 - extreme confidence from Spotlight and a horse with proven form taking a whopping drop in class - yes big field and soft to heavy ground but this one should be a cut above (510pm)
Unsung Heroine - looks a 3 horse race - opposing Crystal Capella based on fact horse has won 4 and sequentially is due to lose a race (off at 5pm)
Goliath's Boy - looks good to place - drawn by the confidence in the market. (goes off 410pm)
New Approach will be my first selection - if the horse places I will stop for the day. If unplaced I will continue like yesterday on the loss retrieval
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