Thursday, 16 October 2008

16/10

Normal service resumed - this loss retrieval with shorties will only work if a winner is found immediately after a loser

230 BRIGHTON
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Roman Glory, 7/2 Repealed, 9/2 Midnight In May, 8/1 Phoenix Enforcer, 10/1 Parc Des Princes, Tottie, 14/1 Celtic Commitment, 20/1 New Adventure, 33/1 Astrobrava, Buddy Marvellous, 50/1 Spring Secret, 66/1 Ain´t Talkin´.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Repealed is an interesting newcomer and should be monitored closely in the market but ROMAN GLORY, who has a BHA rating of 82 after three starts, sets a fairly useful standard and looks to be getting better with experience.

Tottie now 9/2 - worth monitoring - Roman Glory - apparently getting better with racing but, as with one yesterday, only 3 runs for a 2 year old

400

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Crusoe´s Return, 11/4 Mushtaaq, 9/2 Inquest, 6/1 Crazy About You, 8/1 Hawk Flight, 16/1 Force Tradition, 25/1 Indiana Fox, 50/1 Cadeaux Fax, 66/1 Snake Hips.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There isn't a massive amount between a few of these but Mushtaaq has had plenty of chances, while Inquest has shown his promise on soft ground. CRUSOE'S RETURN (nap), who may benefit from the step up in trip on parts of his pedigree, gets the verdict

Not one for me judging by the early market - very tight at the head of the market and Crusoe now 11/4 4.1 / 1.56 - again market too tight

750 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Audemar, 7/1 Captain Carnival, 12/1 Dynamo Dane, 25/1 Clerical, 33/1 Always The Sun, Wunder Strike,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a straightforward task for AUDEMAR. It will be interesting to see which way Captain Carnival goes in the market

Very obvious candidate here - 3 outsiders but only 2 places - one time only runner open to improvement? 1.28 / 1.08 2 the place - this price will change as there is 8 hours til the race is off

420 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Karashar, 13/2 Shannersburg, 7/1 Coole Dodger, Joshua, Rock Me, 10/1 Force And Motion, Golden Tokyo, 14/1 Bid Art, Sherbet Lemon, 20/1 Crimsonwing, King Bathwick, 33/1 Magpie, Trempolinas, 66/1 Miss Mozart, Seconditis,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KARASHAR disappointed last time but he'd previously shown enough on a sound surface to suggest he's very much the one to beat in this company

A price gapper but I don't like getting involved in maiden hurdle favourites - it's like a flat maiden BUT over obstacles - YIKES! - 16 runners - 5 debutants 3.4 / 1.6 - tells you that this is no gimme

520
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Kielder Rise, 13/8 Shenao, 8/1 Poppy Parade, 16/1 Court Lad, Deep Squeeze, 25/1 Fleetwood Magic, Pathian Prince, Rocket Pocket.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This could develop into a fight between Shenao and KIELDER RISE, whose recent promising debut tips the scales in his favour.[JN]

A bumper - these are gambling races so live market imperative really - on the bare face of it, looks betwen the front 3
Court Lad now 9/1 from 16/1 - look out for this one if the price indicates a market move - 1.18 / 1.25 places

140 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Big Bound, 6/1 Ebiayn, Neuchatel, 7/1 Battle Hero, 10/1 Wee Giant, 14/1 Orbitor, 16/1 Blue Nymph, 20/1 Rogalt, Whatami, 25/1 Gitano Hernando, Play To Win, 50/1 Pezula, 66/1 Mythical Thrill.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Big Bound will be popular in his bid to gain compensation for an unfortunate experience on his debut but may be worth taking on at short odds with different ground a possible cause for concern. NEUCHATEL (each-way) looks a reasonable alternative

Changeable ground and a big field and a one time out favourite - not a betting medium for me - too much can go wrong in ground where a juvenile hasn't experience on 1.75 / 1.18

240
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Recession Proof, 5/1 Digger Derek, 12/1 Mawjaat, Musical Maze, Security Joan, 14/1 Deal Clincher, Very Distinguished, 16/1 Hip Hip Hooray, Yeoman Of England, 20/1 Johnny Rook, Meydan Groove, Mykingdomforahorse, Tepmokea, 33/1 Kilsyth, Mekong Miss, Order Order,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several with claims but RECESSION PROOF is ahead of the handicapper and must be hard to beat if handling this ground as well as he did Polytrack last week. Very Distinguished may be the best each-way alternative.

"if handling this grond" - enough of a question mark to put me off! 3.2 / 1.42

340
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Expresso Star, 7/1 Mr Hichens, 8/1 Blue Spinnaker, 11/1 Suits Me, 12/1 Rainbow Mirage, 14/1 Conquisto, Jaser, 16/1 Amanda Carter, Maramba, 20/1 Granston, Sahrati, 25/1 Ella Woodcock, Indicible.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A decent quality handicap with several which would be of real interest were it not for the presence of EXPRESSO STAR (nap), who stands out on his latest clearcut dismissal of a similar calibre field in a C&D handicap last week and will be very hard to beat if in the same form despite a 6lb penalty now

On a hatrick and a 6lb penalty - priced to be comeptitive - eye catching price gap 1.74 / 1.19

SHORT LIST
Expresso star is certainly priced to follow up - as a multiple handicap winner, I do tend to be keen to oppose after a concerted winning sequence. Good to doft ground - I am always concerned that the grond may soften further as the day progresses

Audemar - 1.08 certainly enticing BUT 2 the place

520 LUDLOW - looked initially like a 2 horse (stretch 3) race but the possibility that Court Lad has been gambled means that potential places ( 3) will be fought out between these 4)
LIVE MARKET imperative I'm afraid with bumpers so a look nearer 520 will make my mind up for me.

I will go for Audemar today at 1.08 to place- to win my target profit requires £35 or thereabouts when 2% compounding on £100 bank. As this race goes off at 750, if I can achieve the 2% target elsewhere beforehand I will shelkve this, expecially if I can realise my target with a lower stake. 520 will be the race to focus on and a probable place only on the market leader
Perhaps dutching the first 2?

Kielder Rise
2.36
£6.00
£8.16
You are betting FOR Kielder Rise to win. You are betting FOR Kielder Rise to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £6.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £8.16. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.

Shenao
2.82
£5.00
£9.10
You are betting FOR Shenao to win.
For a profit of
» £3.01
2.36
» £2.95
2.82


and ONLY A STAKE OF £11 compared to the £35 for Audemor!






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