Wednesday 8 October 2008

8/10

Well everything placed yesterday so it didn't really matter who I picked. Majuba was backed in from 1.20 down to 1.11 before the off allowing a free trade which would have freed up stake ( however small it is for 2% target)

320 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Gone To Lunch, 9/2 Kornati Kid, 5/1 Exmoor Ranger, 9/1 Overclear, 16/1 Dream Falcon, 20/1 Wasntme, 25/1 John Fenton, 33/1 Dont Ask Me, 66/1 Howdy Cloud, Strathtay, 200/1 Rathcannon Man.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This alone should be worth the entrance money. Gone To Lunch could go a long way over fences but his record after a break is not that good. There are alternatives and perhaps KORNATI KID can take advantage if Jeremy Scott's charge is in need of the outing

Currently 11/10 with Kornati Kid shortening in the betting. 4 of the 11 are 50/1 or over
Ground is good to soft, threatening to become soft and both principles are coming back from a layoff

Not a race profile which would be top of my list


4

Gone To Lunch
A. P. McCoy
» £0.00
2.14

7

Kornati Kid
Richard Johnson
» £0.00
3.9

4

Gone To Lunch
A. P. McCoy
» £0.00, £0.00
1.32

7

Kornati Kid
Richard Johnson
» £0.00, £0.00
1.44

450 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Copper Bleu, 2/1 Quaddick Lake, 4/1 Phar Again, 8/1 Weather Front, 16/1 Lancer Scott, 25/1 Daring Approach, 33/1 Lustara, Thirtythreeblack, 40/1 Bob Shilling, 50/1 Sweet World, 66/1 Petroglyph, Sea Robber, 100/1 Cherryficial.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Three intriguing contenders who could go places if all falls into place this season. Copper Bleu's connections will be keen for him to justify his lofty purchase price but if QUADDICK LAKE can bounce back to his form from this time last year, he will be hard to beat. Phar Again is the other of special note.[JN]

The betting forecast hints at a 4 horse race, which, from a probability perspective allows us to take a chance that, indeed, the race will be sorted out between these 4 horses - so it's simply a case of selecting the one horse from these 4 to place

Novice hurdles event - is lack of general experience


3

Copper Bleu
Richard Johnson
» £0.00
2.42

8

Quaddick Lake
Timmy Murphy
» £0.00
2.98

1

Weather Front
David England
» £0.00
8.2

7

Phar Again
Jack Doyle
» £0.00
13.5

3

Copper Bleu
Richard Johnson
» £0.00, £0.00
1.26

8

Quaddick Lake
Timmy Murphy
» £0.00, £0.00
1.39

1

Weather Front
David England
» £0.00, £0.00
2

7

Phar Again
Jack Doyle
» £0.00, £0.00
2.76


140 NOTT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Fitz Flyer, 13/2 Bees River, Joe Caster, 8/1 Rare Art, 12/1 Belated Silver, 20/1 Makaykla, Silky Way, 25/1 Dawn Wee, Iachimo, 33/1 Prima Laurea.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FITZ FLYER (nap) has the best form by some way and the drop in trip shouldn't be a problem, so connections will be deflated if he doesn't open his account here. Bees River is the next best based on racecourse achievements, though Rare Art is well regarded at home and could improve a fair bit on his debut show.

Fitz flyer now a non runner

240
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Alanbrooke, 4/1 Advisor, Surrounded, 6/1 Thousand Miles, 10/1 Horsley Warrior, 16/1 Paquerettza, 25/1 Dalesway, Googoobarabajagal, 33/1 Martha´s Girl, Tinkerbelle, 40/1 Lend A Light, 50/1 Saving Grace, 66/1 Strongarm.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ALANBROOKE comes from a fine family and his debut run at Sandown suggested that he will be giving them another win before long. Surrounded and Thousand Miles look easily the most interesting among the others who have run, with Advisor the most eyecatching newcomer

Money for advisor and Thousand Miles - a tricky race with some debutants and also some one time out horses open to improvement in this maiden


2
(11)

Alanbrooke
Royston Ffrench
» £0.00
2.7

1
(10)

Advisor
Jamie Spencer
» £0.00
4.3

8
(2)

Thousand Miles
Richard Mullen
» £0.00
4.2

2
(11)

Alanbrooke
Royston Ffrench
» £0.00, £0.00
1.26

1
(10)

Advisor
Jamie Spencer
» £0.00, £0.00
1.51

8
(2)

Thousand Miles
Richard Mullen
» £0.00, £0.00
1.56

410
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Red Jade, 9/2 Eqbaal, 7/1 Lyceana, 10/1 Scarab, 20/1 Ibbetson, 25/1 Baileys Benchmark, Blushing Heart, 33/1 Solid Silver, 50/1 Indiana Fox, 100/1 Out Of This Way, Una Auroraborealis.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: On last week's evidence, this looks a great opportunity for RED JADE to get off the mark. Eqbaal is the other form horse, with the once-raced pair Lyceana and Scarab posible improvers from major stables.

One time out favourite - 2nd fav is interesting as has had more experience - 6 of the 11 are 66/1 or bigger making this an interesting probability race with the remaining 5 looking to fight out for 3 places


7
(1)

Red Jade
Jimmy Fortune
» £0.00
1.8

4
(9)

Eqbaal
R. Hills
» £0.00
5.6

7
(1)

Red Jade
Jimmy Fortune
» £0.00, £0.00
1.11

4
(9)

Eqbaal
R. Hills
» £0.00, £0.00
1.65


TOWCESTER is a tricky track and I would want to see any price gapper with course form


ONE A DAY

I am tempted by Eqbaal from a probability perspective at a more enticing 1.65 than the 1.11 of the more obvious candidate - why not? That'll be my one selection today - the advantage is I'll not need to stake much to meet my target for the day and from a loss retreival perspective should the horse go unplaced it's not great shakes

450 EXETER - probably back the live market leader to place here -another probability race

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