Friday 17 October 2008

17/10

Easy compounding profits on Audemor deapite the poor price. The 520 -well I warned to check the market and that was proven with the winner being na classic 16/1 system bet, backed in from 16/1 into 8/1 and winning well. The power of highlighting gambling races ( bumpers) and following the market near the off
220 CHELT
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Earth Planet, 4/1 Dragon Eye, Paddleyourowncanoe, 8/1 Ceasen Desist, 25/1 Ace Of Clubs, 100/1 Pairc Na Gcapall.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: EARTH PLANET would appeal even more on a slower surface than forecast, but he still looks worth sticking with having made so much headway last spring and there's surely more to come. Paddleyourowncanoe looked good at Southwell, even allowing for the standard of opposition, and could prove most troublesome

Walsh/Nicholls on a market leader cannot be ignored 1.65/1.24

650 DUNDALK
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Caherassdotcom, 7/2 Dawn Valentino, 6/1 Pecavi, 8/1 Gingko Lady, 14/1 Invincible Power, Tabaahi, 20/1 Redzer Gazgoff, Santo Padre, 25/1 Princess Doll, Valiant Spirit, 33/1 Locky, Step In Tune, 50/1 Sense Of Greeting, 66/1 Three Blessings,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks an unmissable opportunity for CAHERASSDOTCOM, but while he looks close to unopposable he does have one or two questions to answer.\n
Firstly, he is unproven over the five furlong trip. Secondly, he was dreadfully slowly away over six furlongs here a couple of weeks ago and did remarkably well in the circumstances to be only beaten a neck in the much stronger maiden won by Keyala. He is also poorly drawn. Very much on the plus side is the fact that Johnny Murtagh is in the saddle and that his overall form is easily the best in this contest. If things fall even half-right for him in this contest he should win well

Caherassdotcom - Murtagh on board but note the Spotlight Verdict 1.99/1.26
345 nmkt
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Spacious, 5/1 Barshiba, 8/1 Classic Remark, Fragrancy, Moon Sister, Ronaldsay, 12/1 Sweet Lilly, 16/1 In The Light, Raymi Coya, 20/1 Classic Legend, 25/1 Princess Taylor.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A race that revolves around Spacious on her first crack at 1m2f. She has suggested that this trip should be just about within reach but her yard has not really fired on all cylinders this season and a more attractive proposition each way is FRAGRANCY who remains open to further progress at this trip. 2.98/1.5

355 redcar
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Popiel, 13/2 Forty Thirty, 7/1 Storming Sioux, 10/1 Shady Lady, 12/1 Net Value, 14/1 Distant Memories, Sinchiroka, 16/1 Neva A Mull Moment, 20/1 Top Tinker, 25/1 Pattern Mark, Swing It Ruby, 33/1 Bigalo´s Star, High Tensile, Magical Night, Murrays Magic, Prince Andjo, 50/1 Avitus, Berriedale, Indigo Belle, 66/1 Transporter.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks like a good opportunity for POPIEL (nap), who turned in a much-improved performance over this trip last time and represents an in-form yard. Storming Sioux and Distant Memories look the most interesting newcomers

Big price gap here 1.98/1.21

505
BETTING FORECAST: 5/6 Taqdeyr, 5/1 Edmondstown Lass, 12/1 Silk Gallery, 14/1 Hitches Dubai, Liberty Ship, Morocchius, This Ones For Pat, 16/1 Pintano, 20/1 Daisys Fantasy, Dance Card, 25/1 Hansomis, 33/1 Medici Time, 50/1 Firewalker, Rosies Dawn, Tump Mac, 66/1 Little Pandora, 100/1 Avatea, Flamestone, Northgate Lodge, Yorke´s Folly.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAQDEYR will need to be sharper out of the gates over this much shorter trip, but he did really well to get competitive at Nottingham and has much more long-term potential than most of his rivals here. The exceptions could be the well-bred Silk Gallery and Brazilian import Hitches Dubai, both of whom are worth a check in the market

another price gap but another huge field 1.68/1.23

SHORTLIST

V difficult big fields in the latter 2 races! BUT why the short price in the big field
Earth planet looks obvious but only 2 places and 174 days to overcome - 2 mile 5 furlongs too!
Caherassdotcom is very interesting with Jonny Murtagh ( who is riding I think At Tipperary for Aiden O'Brien) making the trip to Dundalk in the evening - significant? We must note the comments of Spotlight but 1.26 at present ( goes off at 650 Dundalk) so need to compare price at the off for confidence - market is illiquid

Price gap on Popeil really is significant and remains in the live market, so despite the 20 runners I think I might be tempted by this one at 1.21

Earth Planet - a course and distance winner - Nicholls has won 2 of the last 3 renewals - I'll chance him at 1.24 I think as my one a day.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

1 Dragon Eye (IRE) 10-12 R Thornton A King 6 11/4
opened 4/1
2 2½ Ceasen Desist (IRE) 11-6 D N Russell S Donohoe 5 13/2
opened 8/1
3 nse Earth Planet (IRE) 11-6 R Walsh P F Nicholls 6 4/6 f
touched 8/13 £2000-£2750 £1600-£2200 £800-£1100 (x2) £582-£800 £400-£550 (x2) £2400-£3600 £1000-£1500 (x2) £440-£660 £400-£600 (x4)

nose 3rd - what a bummer!