BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Billie Magern, 7/4 Answer Me, 15/2 Sea Cliff, 14/1 Regal Quote, 20/1 Northern Lad, 25/1 Bob Shilling, 33/1 Three Thieves.
This was the race I chose as my one a day yesterday although in hindsight AP McCoy upon a price gapper in Tempsford and the very obvious princess rainbow at 1.06 should have been more solid bets paying 3 the place
Regal Quote, 2nd, was backed into 11/2 -14/1 in the betting forecast( Northern Lad, the non runner was too big a price to affect the market) Bille Magern - 1.27 to place when I wrote ,went off at 1.48 - like MArodima the other day this is NOT a positive sign and really does emphasise the power and advantage followers of the live market have - following the live market meant NO bet there especially with only 2 places and one big market mover - I will rate as a loser for my compounding excercise
The price did stay at 1.09 for a concerted period of time with Billy MAgern in running which allowed for a trading opportunity to at least retrieve stake , but trading was not the purpose of this bet
So back to loss retrieval today - a £10 stake used by me for my 2% compounding with £100
Football looks to provide some decent options for the loss retrieval today
400 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Calligrapher, 4/1 Global City, 8/1 Spanish Baron, 10/1 Blown It, Countrywide City,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CALLIGRAPHER has 6lb and more in hand all round going by official figures and it's likely there's improvement left, so he's clearly the one to beat in the absence of Glamorous Spirit.[GW] |
Decent price gap, but like yesterday 2 the place allows for NO error and the live market must be consulted with these 2 the placers for any drift in price between time of writing and the off
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410 UTTOXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Tagula Blue, 4/1 Malakiya, Nayodabayo, 16/1 Just Like That, 20/1 Willies Way, 25/1 Bobdaman, Chunky Lad, 40/1 Barati, Kanisorn, Missie Geore, Mythical Air, Shingle Street, Trackattack, 50/1 Bold Trump, 100/1 Ar An Shron.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This revolves around TAGULA BLUE who was beaten only 8l in this year's Coral Cup and, admittedly after some disappointments in the interim, showed enough on the Flat in August and September to suggest that he is the one to be on at this low level. Malakiya and Nayodabayo are the other principals |
Now at evens, 9 of the 14 runners are 33/1 or over and looking at the betting forecast , it looks between the front 3 in the betting.
WIN ONLY
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440
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 I´m The Decider, 4/1 Creinch, 5/1 Oscar Jack, 7/1 Arumun, 12/1 Et Maintenant, 14/1 Breiz Dream´s, Past Heritage, 16/1 Shampers.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: I'M THE DECIDER is going the right way as a chaser and, with more to come and conditions to suit, he ought to be up to exploiting this low turnout. Creinch rates the most likely threat |
8 runners down to 6 - need to check if Betfair still pays out 3 the place cos this would be a good race to look at
WIN ONLY
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THis race does pay out 3 the place but it is a tightish place only market considering just 3 horses of the 6 will place.
420 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mhilu, 6/1 Bow School, 13/2 Ten Carat, 8/1 Terenzium, 10/1 Daraybad, 20/1 Gamma Velorum, 25/1 Spirit Of Ecstacy, The Ice Bar, 40/1 Comeintothespace, 66/1 Bronze Dancer, Dance Sauvage, 100/1 Mckinneys, Park Lodge, 200/1 Pleasure Pursuit.
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to look beyond MHILU (nap), who lost nothing in defeat over a trip that was on the sharp side for him last time and should cope whatever the ground is like. One-time good Flat stayer Ten Carat may pose most problems |
Another big price gap here - AP McCoy did the job yesterday on another price gapper - 8 of the 14 runners are 33/1 or bigger - 6 are 66/1 or bigger and can hopefully be discounted
WIN ONLY
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SHORTLIST
Calligrapher is interesting BUT only pays out 2 the place- any evidence to back this one? Well the fav in this race has not won for the last 3 times this race has run - sequencially this will change soon? Won well last time over a well regarded horse and 7 lengths clear of 3rd place
NEGATIVES - only this 2 year old's 3rd run - still learning?
410 UTTOXETER sees Tagula Blue BUT the other 2 might be of interest to place at higher prices in a race which looks a 3 way battle. I would advise live market monitoring but if forced would simply put Tagla Blue up to place at 1.27 out of the 3 at this stage,
If wanting to get a bigger price, I would look to see who was better backed out of Nadayobayo and Malikya sing Betfair's graphs and contrasting the place only price here in the blog (midday) and just before the off
440 UTTOXETER - paying out 3 the place BUT only 6 runners - so placed horses only need to beat 3 to place. Can we be adventurous here - Creinch is mentioned in Spotlight at 1.58 to place, compared to Decider's 1.31
420 WETHERBY
Mhilu -price gap remains and AP McCoy on board - forecast firm ground is a worry.
MHILU would be m,y one a day today 1.17 to place - like yesterday make a note of this price and compare it to the price at the off - if significantly bigger at the off then NO bet. General rule of thumb I have noticed? - if there is a 0.20 point increase, the horse is layable - MArodima 1.27 and 1.48 at the off - unplaced and yesterday's unplaced.
ALTERNATIVES
Football today wees a lot of shorties on board including England away to Belarus at 1/3
Portugal at 1.12 are very enticing from the compounding loss retrieval perspective
Croatia at 1.03 at home - halftime/fulltime is 1.09 against Andorra - 1.23 for over 2.5 goals. The latter would be my choice £55 will win back my lost £10 stake from yesterday and £2.65
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