28/12

PRophetic words yesterday "Oumeyade looks an obvious candidate today for me, albeit in a 2 the place race which is not ideal. Abstinence would be worth a second look. For me, this is very much a day to take cues from the live markets, but as things stand it would seem Oumeyade only needs to stay upright and beat 1 to place (as long as the outsiders run as outsiders!)"
Well a 66/1 winner meant that outsider did not run to his price. Abstinence was in an earlier race and won(thus placing) so job done for me but I will chalk this down as breaking my long winning run!

1225 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Kempes, 9/2 Time Electric, 5/1 Puyol, 8/1 Chateau D´Eau, Lenabane, Panzer Chief, Roberto Goldback, 14/1 Lucky Lucas, Primora De Kerpaul, 20/1 Big Julie, Go On Ya Boyo, Outlaw Kid, Qbuster, 25/1 Luisant, Sister Lord, 33/1 Alwaystheoptimist, Sizing Asia, 50/1 Snowymountainview, 66/1 Hunters Dream.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: PUYOL may help to turn the clock back for John Mulhern, who often exercised a significant influence at this meeting in the past. The lightly raced Zaffaran gelding won a bumper at Roscommon last season and was having his first run in just over a year when winning a 2m Flat maiden at Navan that is usually an informative race in a jumping context.\n

Now 7/4 with Ruby on board - still a big field and a maiden hurdle 1.44 to place

105 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Bensalem, 13/8 Toby Belch, 3/1 Helpston, 25/1 Pelennor, Portside, 33/1 O´Sogood, 50/1 Avon Court, Vagrant Emperor, 100/1 Blinded Bythelight, Radical Gunner, Silver Missile,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BENSALEM looks a nice prospect and could be the answer to this getting weight off the top two, especially if carrying any confidence in the market as connections have an idea as to where they stand with Helpston.[

Helpston is a non runner so Bensalem looks strong to place here in a race where the original betting forecast shows 3 pre 25/1 -add to this it's a Thornton/King horse 1.48 / 1.08 -Toby BElch is 1.17

115 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Hillside Lad, 7/2 Green Onions, 9/2 Fantasy Gladiator, 8/1 Manana Manana, 14/1 Countrywide Jaime, 16/1 Acrosstheuniverse, Edith´s Boy, Lady Vivien, 33/1 Menhir Bay, 100/1 Risky Lady.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to concern HILLSIDE LAD and Green Onions who have both been improving with experience and should not be inconvenienced by this sharp test juding by the speed they showed last time.[AC]

3rd fav a non runner means fav is now odds on 1.96 / 1.18 - concern it is a maiden over 5 furlongs

135 LEIC
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 The Randy Bishop, 9/2 Ours, 11/2 Russian Flag, 7/1 Naxox, Trigger Guard, 10/1 Great Tsar, Travelling Fox, 12/1 Turbo Shandy, 20/1 King Diamond, Mickwell Bay, 25/1 Battlefield.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE RANDY BISHOP is beginning to look progressive and, under a patient ride, didn't seem to have a particularly hard race at Market Rasen on Boxing Day. Travelling Fox is another to bear in mind.[

11 runners down to 7, with 2 at 20/1 or bigger. Ours no longer has the Randy Bishop or Russian flag to worry about, and as original 2nd fav could be worth backing with 3 places and only 7 runners 3.6 / 1.5

235 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Neptune Collonges, 7/2 The Listener, 5/1 War Of Attrition, 6/1 Exotic Dancer, 12/1 Snowy Morning, 14/1 Glenfinn Captain, 33/1 Cane Brake, Slim Pickings, 40/1 Light On The Broom.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NEPTUNE COLLONGES lacks the advantage of a run this season but is bound to be in good shape for such a significant prize, and looks set to collect a third Irish Grade 1, probably at the main expense of The Listener and War Of Attrition.

Yielding/soft ground not ideal, but looks a 4 horse race at 11/8 , 9/2 , 9/2 , 9/2 . . 1.33 to place BUT a competitive race here

SHORTLIST
105 Leicester looks an ideal race - concern is that the ground is softer than advertised. Is Toby Belch worth a gamble at 1.18 as one of only 2 horses sub 20/1? 1.18 is far better than the quite obvious 1.09 of Bensalem.

135 LEIC is very interesting with the non runners reducing the field to 7 runners BUT still paying out 3 places -perhaps the favourite to place (probably Ours or Naxox?)

As things stand I will chance Toby Belch here to place at 1.18 although ready preference is for Benalsem with Choc on board but at only 1.08