29/12

Another place yesterday - my friend actually chose Liverpool away to Newcastle to make his 1.43% at a nice juicy price!
Interestingly, I collated all one a dayers and looked at level stakes backing - a 7 point profit for the period from November 1st to present. Quite a return for such generally poor odds! The key is a strike rate of 93.9%!!

1240 LIMERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Tinakellylad, 9/2 Inagh Valley, 6/1 The Slug, 8/1 Dont Cross Tina, 10/1 Rosiel, 12/1 Alfa Beat, Blackwater Pete, Not To Know, 14/1 Echo Bob, Killowenabbey, 16/1 Clean Sweep, Title Race, Uncle Tom Cobley, 20/1 Cloverhill Lad, 25/1 Joker Man, The Clubhousebee, 33/1 Ath Dara Moon, Follow The Sun,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A very ordinary maiden hurdle begins proceedings and there's no need to look any further than TINAKELLYLAD. Winner of a Kilmallock point-to-point back in April, he has shown a good level of form over hurdles so far, his best efforts when a decent third to Beau Michael in a conditions hurdle here in October before finishing a very close third in very testing conditions to Quiscover Fontaine in a maiden hurdle at Gowran Park earlier this month. That form was well advertised by the winner landing a conditions event here three days ago and that level of form puts him head and shoulders above these rivals.\n The main danger is likely to come from InaghValley.

Included because of the positive vibes for the market leader - a maiden hurdle though on soft ground with a big field in Ireland is not top of my list though! Interesting that Ballydoyle flat jockey J Heffernan is on the 2nd fav and he was subject of a big gamble on his last ride. With the profile of the race, I suspect prices for the place market will be generally bigger than usual - 1.11 to place but a very illiquid market

115 MUSSELBURGH
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Red Moloney, 5/1 Grand Diamond, 12/1 Casual Affair, 16/1 Best Horse, 25/1 Catai, 40/1 Piper´s Song.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RED MOLONEY has the class to defy a penalty at this level before going on to better things, with course specialist Grand Diamond looking the main threat after an encouraging debut over hurdles

Obvious candidate now 1/4 but I have come unstuck in these 2 the place races because there is simply no margin for error 1.26 and 1.11 to place

135 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Gone To Lunch, 5/2 Money Trix, 7/2 Mr Pointment, 9/1 Sir Bathwick, 10/1 Trigger The Light.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mr Pointment is clear on official figures but may well be flattered by his rating and this may rest between progressive GONE TO LUNCH and Money Trix, who may yet live up to the high expectations of his connections.[FC]

An example of a race I cannot get an angle on - put off as I am by Trigger the Light being a Thornton/King horse!

150 MUSS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 West With The Wind, 15/8 Don´t Stop Me Now, 3/1 Vivaldi, 12/1 Metal Madness, 20/1 Bourse, 40/1 Orchestrion, Vallani.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: WEST WITH THE WIND looked a real pro when making a winning hurdle debut and is given a narrow vote but Don't Stop Me Now also looked good in her win and Vivaldi might beat the pair of them if the market happened to ooze confidence

Another 2 the place race but with a better profile - fly in the ointment is Metal Madness .Front 3 look the ones to concentrate on 1.61 and 1.54
to place - again both a over 1.5 and quite obviously this is no gimme
210 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Dave´s Dream, 5/1 Quaspia, 6/1 Abbevillian, Kingsdale Orion, 7/1 China Gold, 16/1 Danetime Panther, 20/1 Cursum Perficio, Princeful, 50/1 Gremlin, 200/1 Tigger.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Unbeaten DAVE'S DREAM (nap) looked a good prospect on his hurdling debut last winter and this looks a good opportunity for him to pick up where he left off. China Gold may give him most to do.[

A long absence but "take this on the way to better things" says Spotlight .Now odds on -Quaspia now 12/1 - either the betting forecaster has it badly wrong or the bookies are hiding this one! china Gold represents the excellent Thornton/King combination and is now 4/1 looking the obvious each way alternative 1.15 for Dave and 1.6 for CHina Gold

225 LEOP
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Pomme Tiepy, 3/1 Give It Time, 9/2 Shirley Casper, 13/2 Aura About You, 10/1 Brave Betsy, 14/1 Conclave, Garrai Ard, 20/1 Flirthing Around, Isabellareine, Storm Plan, 33/1 Backtothekingsnest, 50/1 Micks Kicks.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: POMME TIEPY needs to improve on the form that she showed when third to The Bishop Looney at Cork last time, but has strong overall credentials and represents a stable has been in irresistible form over the holiday period. A leading novice chaser over staying distances last season, she was found to be lame after a below-par run at Clonmel on her first run after a break before a switch to hurdling bore dividends when she made all to beat Cork All Star by 5 1/2l in a 2m2f Fairyhouse event.\n

Pomme Tiepy reappears with Ruby on board - a good mare but not really priced today as a confident winner 1.55 to place but Give it time is 2nd fav but 1.34 to place

305 GREAT LEIGHS
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Tartan Gunna, 9/4 Dover Street Art, 5/1 Toll Road, 6/1 Sounds Of Jupiter, 14/1 Alimarr, 33/1 Art Discovery, Crazy Colours, Maison D´Or, Philmack Dot Com.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Toll Road is an interesting newcomer and any market confidence would look significant, while Dover Street Art ran well on his debut and looks sure to improve. TARTAN GUNNA was still palpably green at Southwell last time but he should continue to progress with experience and this could be his day

Good probability race which should involve the first 4 = Dover street art is now favourite - this is a maiden and Hayley Turner is on board and she has been rather naive and inconsistent of late and not one for me to really trust at present 1.13 to place is stand out in this market

ONE A DAY

A very niggly day - big field maiden hurdle, ultra short priced horse running in 2 the place race carrying a penalty , and a shortie who has not run since January 2008.

A day where following the live market is advised, OR a chance taken on Man Utd at home to Middlesbrough this evening at 1/5

Red Maloney is 1/4 to win and 1.11 to place and would be my one a day but the spectre of 2 the place racing is upon us again and he has no margin for error