18/12

100% yesterday for the shorties and Ruby stumbled again on Hebridean -his strike rate since return is not spectacular - perhaps I'mm being a little unrealistic!
1230 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Bold Rose, 7/2 Imaginary Diva, 9/2 Chimbonda, 6/1 Red Cell, 8/1 Raimond Ridge, 12/1 Alimarr, 16/1 Key To Love, 20/1 La Capriosa, 33/1 Dawn Wee, 50/1 Rocket Ruby.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BOLD ROSE (nap) has been knocking on the door recently and a reproduction of her latest close second over C&D could be good enough to get her off the mark on her eighth attempt. Imaginary Diva and Chimbonda are feared most of the rest.[
A nursery and 0-65 nursery - not a good quality race - the market leader has 2 2nds in recent performances and has Hayley Turner on board who has been effective recently 3.35/ 1.44

1240 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Dontpaytheferryman, 7/2 Elbistan, 9/2 Waarid, 8/1 Haydens Mark, 14/1 Malt Empress, 16/1 Farsighted, 20/1 Ericarrow, Whatalotofbuts, 25/1 Little Cee, 33/1 Nathan Dee, Veronicas Way,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Elbistan and Waarid should be involved but DONTPAYTHEFERRYMAN has the most appealing profile, having made a successful hurdling debut then found the company at Cheltenham too hot, and the booking of Tony McCoy boosts confidence

Despite McCoy being on board, this is still a selling hurdle on soft. BUT 3 horses now are sub 20/1 in the live betting - Waarid has shortened in the live market and DOntpaytheferryman is no odds on. The question remains " can we trust these horses given the nature of the race? 1.92 / 1.19
Waarid is 3.5 / 1.28

1250 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Silver Spinner, 9/2 Cherry Flora, 5/1 Aussie Deal, 6/1 Rhinestone Ruby, 10/1 Kateal, Marsh Court, Rith Bob, 20/1 Francly Flora, 40/1 Lyrical Chant, 50/1 Slickdalay, Sweet Optomist, Tarabela, 66/1 Classical Act, 100/1 Cadeaux Cerise, Elsie May, Missie Geore, Sally Army,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Cherry Flora and Rith Bob could prove the best prospects from bumpers but they could have their work cut out to beat recent Towcester winner SILVER SPINNER who looks the type to improve further.[

Powerful ALan King stable has the fav here but no Choc Thornton. Despite the numbers ,8 horses are over 66/1, 2 are 500/1 and should play no real part in the race, leaving 10. Concern that the 4 principles have reasonable form , and with only 3 the place, it only takes a under par performance from Silver SPinner to see the horse unplaced. 2.62 / 1.32

110 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Paquet Cadeau, 11/2 Bali Bay, 6/1 Mey Clouds, 7/1 Regal Quote, 8/1 Forfeiter, 10/1 The Shy Man, 12/1 Sebastiano, 16/1 Roman Villa, 20/1 Ford Of Wells, 25/1 Dream Falcon.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bali Bay and Regal Quote both offer some appeal now sent chasing, while the likes of The Shy Man and Sebastiano are fairly treated on the pick of their hurdles form, but the unexposed PAQUET CADEAU is taken to maintain an unbeaten record over fences.[

ALways encouraging to see Choc on board a short priced King horse with a price gap to boot. 4 horses between 9/2 and 7/1 show there is some rivalry to the clear market leader BUT the price gap remains in the live market at time of writing . Fav on a 3 timer so proven winner 2.82 / 1.48 (suspiciously big place price here!)

150 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Silverburn, 9/4 Private Be, 3/1 Nacarat, 16/1 Keepthedreamalive, 200/1 Popcorn Rosie, 500/1 Kinkeel.

Ruby " where's me spleen?" Walsh is on board Silverburn who is now odds on - looks a clear 3 horse race here ,and with 2 to place ,it's simply a matter of chosing one from 3 to place ( of course we are assuming there are no fallers) 1.72 / 1.25

240 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Prince Of Persia, 6/1 College Ace, 7/1 Buailteoir, 8/1 Cresswell Willow, 9/1 Michael Muck, 10/1 Down´s Folly, 14/1 Presenting Express, 25/1 Spare Me, 33/1 Super Judge, 50/1 Dasher Reilly.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It's hard to see beyond PRINCE OF PERSIA (nap), who seems to have been transformed by a switch to David Pipe's yard and a repeat of last week's easy Huntingdon win may be enough to defy this penalty. The hat-trick seeking College Ace can chase him home.[

Price gap remains in the live market - early signs of a gamble on Presenting Express? -now 8/1

Running under a penalty, is the horse of sufficient quality to carry the burden in soft ground for 3 miles? 2.38 / 1.34

300 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Mozayada, 4/1 Sofia´s Star, 6/1 Realt Na Mara, 7/1 Augustus John,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MOZAYADA has been in unstoppable form at this track recently and should not have too much trouble defying a penalty for her very stylish C&D win last week. The main danger is Sofia’s Star.[

2 the place and a horse on a 4 timer - SPotlight is bullish

Mozayada
Proved a revelation since switched to Fibresand and defied a 15lb rise when completing a handicap hat-trick with plenty in hand over C&D on Friday; potentially thrown in under penalty, usually races prominently and could be very hard to catch.

I have said it many times before - winning sequences end and in such a small field, are we absolutely confident that the horse will at least place? 1.59 / 1.13

310 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Carole´s Legacy, 5/1 Smuglin, 6/1 Dancingwithbubbles, 14/1 Luccombe Bay, 20/1 Forest Perk, 25/1 Double Brandy, Inge It Is, 100/1 Brave Jewel, Rothres, 200/1 Airs N Graces, Busy Bay, Native Cherry.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An obvious nopportunity for CAROLE'S LEGACY to add to her Newbury success. Bumper winners Smuglin and Dancingwithbubbles should follow her home.[

Now 4/11 -been battered in -only 2 real rivals if going by the prices - soft ground and 2 miles 5 furlongs 1.36 / 1.07

330 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: Evs This Ones For Eddy, 6/1 Lujano, Rosie Says No, 10/1 Kirkie, 12/1 Broughtons Flight, 14/1 Daggerman, Jordi Roper, 16/1 Gambling Jack, 25/1 Rich James, 33/1 Sir Billy Nick.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of these are easy to overlook and although THIS ONES FOR EDDY was beaten here on Tuesday, this looks an easier assignment. Stablemate Kirkie and the in-form Lujano could provide the main threat.[

Thisonesforeddy is out ,as is Rosie says no. Get the old Columbo mac on and we find Lujano the only horse in the betting forecast under 10/1 remaining! Now 7/4 in the live market. The absentees ,though, could lead to a more open race, BUT still only 3 to place and if the betting forecaster was accurate in installing Lujano as 2nd fav, then we should be confident of a place
2.82 / 1.31


ONE A DAY

1240 LUDLOW is interesting with only 3 horses sub 20/1 - a selling hurdle though BUT McCoy on board should strengthen confidence

150EXETER - if prices are correct - a 3 horse race -these 3 vying for 2 places. Dare we trust Silverburn to stay upright and be there at the finish? The market expects so.

300 SOUTHWELL - NO ground concerns, NO long distances, NO obstacles BUT a horse on a 4 timer and priced to win again. Hint that he has a little leighway with the handicapper BUT needs to finish in the front 2

310 LUDLOW - Carole's legacy a very obvious candidate here - price a concern - 1.07 ,maybe chance the straight win at 1.36 (smaller stake to get target profit?) 2 miels 5 f and soft ground to contend with but there have eben no real market movers -would have to fall not to place it would seem.

330 SOUTHWELL - Lujano been given a clear opportunity here? 7 runners BUT Betfair are still paying out 3 the place so Lujano has 4 to ebat to place. Concern is that there are no real outsiders anymore price wise (outsider priced at a non outsider price of 12/1!!) Spotlight verdict encouraging

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of these are easy to overlook and although THIS ONES FOR EDDY was beaten here on Tuesday, this looks an easier assignment. Stablemate Kirkie and the in-form Lujano could provide the main threat

It is with this in mind and the fact Lujano was mentioned in SPotlight Verdict, that he will be my one a day primarily because of the price gap now in the live betting market, the fact this 7 runner race pays 3 the place on Betfair, and ,at 1.31, represents a better value bet than the more obvious CArole's legacy at 1.07