22/12

Nice 1.53 placer yesterday in a 6 horse race with 3 the place - Solwhit was another at 1.06 but the price, of course reflected the relative ease of his chances of placing

1230 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Victory Spirit, 5/1 Nikki Bea, 11/2 Comrade Cotton, 6/1 Afton View, 7/1 Grizedale, Silidan, 14/1 Franksalot, 25/1 Spanish Ace, 33/1 Silver Spruce, 50/1 Bad Moon Rising, Cavalry Guard, 66/1 Black Draft.

Looked like a price gapper but the live market shows as 3/1 - add to this an apprentice handicap and it's a no bet race for me

110 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 National Petition, 5/1 Potts Of Magic, 11/2 Will The Till, 10/1 Methodical, Natoumba, 14/1 Jean Le Poisson, 16/1 Paddy´s Tern, 20/1 Amazing Valour, Shifting Alliance, Superrollercoaster, 33/1 Agoodun, Letitia´s Loss.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Ex-Irish pointer NATIONAL PETITION (nap) started off over fences on a lowly mark after three runs at an inadequate trip over hurdles, winning at Folkestone last week, and has an obvious chance of following up. Will The Till may give him most to do.[

Price gap remains in the live market - good run at class 5 over the same trip in similar ground in another handicap chase. I do like horses who were clear of the rest oin their last runs - it augurs well - soft ground again today

140 HERE
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Tifoso, 7/2 Night Cru, 13/2 Jardin De Vienne, 10/1 Darizan, Glinton, Supsonic, 11/1 Smoothly Does It, Tender Falcon, 16/1 Captain Tidds, 20/1 Dalaram, Demi Beau, Insignia, 33/1 Temple Place, Webbswood Lad, 40/1 Hero Again, 50/1 Monsieur.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Several interesting contenders, including NIGHT CRU, who was a decent Flat handicapper and is expected to improve for handicapping over hurdles under Tony McCoy, Tifoso, who is presumably considered well treated for him to be making his British debut in a handicap, and Darizan, a C&D winner who is handily weighted for this return from a lay-off

MArket leaders are largely the big boys -Tifoso for Thornton/King is the market leader and well backed but it is chance on reputation rather than any rock solid form

200 LING
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Fyodor, 3/1 Desert Dreamer, Mutamared, 7/1 Woodcote, 66/1 Ishibee.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This has all the potential to be a muddling affair. Fyodor meets all of his rivals on at least 13lb better terms than he would in a handicap on his first try at this level, but given his overall profile he is far from banker material. The drop back to 6f is a concern for Desert Dreamer and preference is for MUTAMARED who usually gives it a good shot.[

Interesting probability race - one clear outsider and Woodcote now 16/1 in the live market - leaves (I hope) 3 to fight out the 2 places - claimer not ideal race type

240 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Black Jacari, 7/2 Sydney Sling, 5/1 Stow, 6/1 Loco Grande, 10/1 Falsino, 12/1 Okafranca, Ragamuffin Man, 16/1 Wise Hawk, 20/1 Anay Turge, Harveys Spirit, 33/1 Ambrose Princess, Janet´s Delight, 40/1 Home, 50/1 Emerald Crystal, 66/1 Karmei, 100/1 Marino Prince.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No doubt the warning bells are ringing for BLACK JACARI but he is given a last chance in first-time blinkers on ground he will handle. Sydney Sling created a good impression when making a winning hurdling debut and at the moment could be anything so must be feared along with some interesting newcomers, such as fast-ground 1m2f winner Stow.[

Black JAcari has 3 2nd's to his name, but represents the Thornton /King alliance and is now 6/4. Big field tempers enthusiasm but Thornton is a jockey to trust

310 HEREFORD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Fassaroe, 9/4 Zarrafakt, 8/1 Izita Star, 12/1 Covert Mission, 16/1 Charlotte Street, Snake Hips, 25/1 Costa Courta, Walamo, 33/1 Alinghi, Jivin´ Johnny, Jolly Cooper, See Me Soon, Willie Warson, 40/1 Come On Eddie, 50/1 Berties Brother, 66/1 Racing With Angels.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nothing like as competitive as the size of the field suggests and a good opportunity for FASSAROE, who has much less to do than at Newbury last time, to get off the mark. Izita Star may be the best each-way alternative.[

Interesting SPotlight comment and a fav now solid at evens

ONE A DAY

No standout selections today as we have some big fields

110 HEREFORD - 3 miler + in soft ground BUT the price gap remains on NAtional Petition at 2.22 win / 1.32 place

140 HEREFORD - backing purely on reputation of stable and debutatants in handicap hurdles to boot - any involvement requires an element of blind faith in the big boys performing

Tifoso - 3.65 / 1.47 BUT this is a 16 runner handicap so we do have 4 places! Can Choc keep him out of trouble and there at the business end?

200 LING - a messy claimer and any 2 of the 3 shortlisted could fill the 2 places so no bet for me , BUT you would get very good (relatively speaking) good odsd for the place market if chancing one of the 3 market leaders to place

240 HEREFORD

2.66 / 1.33 to place on Black Jacari - 6 horses are 50/1 or bigger leaving 8 runners - yet again we have Choc Thornton on board and he is guaranteed to give his all -shortlisted

310 HEREFORD - Fassaroe is 2.18 / 1.18 to place in a race where only 4 horses are sub 20/1 despiet the big field. . Closely matched price wise with Zarrafakt

National Petition's price gap has held up in the live betting market and at 1.32 represents a decent enough price for my target profit purposes. Concerns over 3 miles and soft ground but priced to win