Friday, 5 December 2008

5/12

Pepite de Soleil won by a distance so was an ideal place only bet albeit at highly restrictive odds, but the bold who took 1.38 for the win just had to get the prayer mat out on Sam Thomas staying on board this time!
1250 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Helium, 6/4 Tuanku, 10/1 King Olav, 14/1 Drum Major, 25/1 Highland Homestead.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: HELIUM jumped well en route to winning at Warwick and, likely to be more at home going this way round, can give the weight away to Tuanku
A 2 horse race here? BUT soft ground and novices hrdle - the dependable Thornton/King combination are on Tuanku
1.96 / 1.2
2.66 / 1.34

100 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Franchoek, 15/8 Hector´s Choice, 11/2 Doubly Guest, 8/1 Lupanar, 16/1 Quasar D´Oudairies.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A small turnout for the prize money but the presence of Franchoek adds plenty of interest and it will fascinating to see how he fares on his handicap debut. He has to be seriously respected with three of his opponents out of the weights but HECTOR'S CHOICE (nap), who sneaks into the handicap proper off the same mark as his Newbury win last week, receives 19lb and may be able to take advantage with further improvement entirely possible.[

AP riding a King horse - where's the Chocolate?
The front 2 take up 80+% of the book
Hector 2.6 / 1.55
Fran 2,7 /1.5

The price in the place market belies the fact this is no given for the market principles - those with a glass half full will say "AP MCCOY 1/2 to place - HAPPY DAYS!"

115 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Formula, 6/1 Charlie Smirke, Lipi, 10/1 Green Dynasty, Premier Banker, 20/1 Bickersten, Liberty Beau, 25/1 Dukes Art, 33/1 Persuasive Power, 66/1 Thefillyfromepsom.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A few interesting newcomers but the one that appeals most is FORMULA, who created a good impression when chasing home a potentially smart sort over C&D last time and he's open to further progress in this sphere. [RY]

CAution - a maiden and a number of debutants 1.67 / 1.11

135 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Exmoor Ranger, Panjo Bere, 4/1 No Panic, 6/1 Oscar Bay, 66/1 Knapp Bridge Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Exmoor Ranger looks likely to be in the mix granted a clear round but the well-regarded PANJO BERE can take another slight step up in class in his stride, having scored with plenty to spare on both his chasing starts in Britain.[SB]

Panjo Bere out should ensre Exmoor Ranger's job is a little easier 1.84 / 1.21

200 SAND
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 On Raglan Road, 8/1 Junior, 10/1 Tullamore Dew, 12/1 Grizebeck, 14/1 Fair Point, 16/1 Ogee, 20/1 Mr Gardner.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Some nice prospects in the line-up, none more so that ON RAGLAN ROAD who sets a very good standard on his clear second to Massasoit at Aintree. Junior may be the one for the forecast.

Junior and Tullamore Dew have come in for money - initially it looked a solid price gap but live market shows 4/6 - - - 4/1 1.7 / 1.21

245 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Darstardly Dick, 3/1 Glenwood Knight, 5/1 Supreme Keano, 8/1 Summery Justice, 12/1 Cloud Nine, 14/1 Freddy´s Star, 16/1 Callerlilly, 33/1 Manmoon, 50/1 Karinga Magic, Something Inside.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Dastardly Dick is open to further progress but he's penalised for his Wincanton win and holes can be picked in that form. Both Glenwood Knight and SUPREME KEANO look likely improvers and don't have much to find on their bare form. Slight preference goes to the latter, who could show much more now tackling testing ground.

4 rnners sub double figre odds 2.6 / 1.29

310 SANDOWN
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Laskari, 9/2 Jim Bobs Girl, Pass Me A Dime, 6/1 Presenting Express, 9/1 Sheriff Roscoe, 10/1 In Accord, 16/1 Mokum, River Indus, 20/1 Alfadora.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Laskari and Jim Bobs Girl come here in peak form but the former's stamina has to be taken on trust and the latter looks up against it under her penalty. There are question marks against most of the others but there are grounds for believing PRESENTING EXPRESS will show his form after his layoff and he is the tentative choice.[

Now down to 6 runners and a check necessary on Betfair whether this still pays out 3 the place as any selection only has 3 to beat to place] 3.75 / 1.54 - still 3 the place here so worth speculation on the market leader?

750 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Rag And Bone, 3/1 Opera Wings, 9/2 Ajara, 6/1 Anasy, 7/1 Volochkova, 14/1 Floods Of Tears, Passage To India, 16/1 Lovely Steps, 20/1 False Modesty, 25/1 Tuppenny Piece, 100/1 Spin Sister,

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: RAG AND BONE has done nothing but improve and side-steps an entry at Great Leighs tomorrow to go for this. With a plum draw, and Jamie Spencer on board, she is taken to beat the promising Ajara and Sir Michael Stoute’s newcomer Opera Wings

Concern here is which Spencer will show up? The one who rode a magnificent winner yesterday or the one who accidentally gets his horse out of the places despite being very well fancied!
2.9 / 1.37

ONE A DAY
Exmoor Ranger makes appeal given Panjo Bere's absence and at 1.29 is reasonable enough ( but remember 2 the place - any jumping errors may prove costly)
There are a couple of speculative bets today with non runners redcing one field from 9 to 6 AND STILL PAYING OUT 3 THE PLACE
Franchoek at 1/2 to place makes plenty of appeal but I do get suspicious about 1.5+ placers

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