17/12

It's a dream -no problems yesterday keeping the great run going

1220 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Hebridean, 4/1 Zaynar, 7/1 Sainglend, Walkon, 10/1 Kahsabelle, 12/1 Psi, 20/1 Song In My Heart, 33/1 Arthur Des Champs, Mistress Eva, Zen Factor, 40/1 Zafranagar, 50/1 Miss Phoebe, 100/1 Dr Kildare.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Nicky Henderson (represented by Zaynar) won this race every year from 2001 to 2005, on four occasions with short-priced favourites, and did not have a runner in either renewal since, but the short-priced favourite this time is highly likely to be the Nicholls-trained HEBRIDEAN, who is a newcomer to hurdling but a standout on his Flat form. There is little hurdles form to consider, but Walkon and Sainglend have shown significant ability

Another race with 2 clear market leaders representing the Nicholls /Walsh partnership and Geraghty/Henderson.
Ruby has not won since coming back from his spleen operation. Is he the force he was after such a quick return to the saddle? The live market seems to think he will be ok
HEBRIDEAN - 2.62 / 1.32
ZAYNAR - 2.8/ 1.3


135 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Pezula Bay, 9/2 Head Down, 13/2 Rebel City, 7/1 Symonette, 10/1 Wellesley, 12/1 Sounds Of Jupiter, 14/1 Dimander, Sky High Kid, 16/1 It´s A Mans World, 25/1 Foxtrot Bravo, Persian Buddy, 33/1 Tropical Bachelor.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Head Down has had enough chances to think either one of the newcomers or something lightly raced with a bit of potential ought to prove too good; PEZULA BAY, who shaped so well first time up, is the obvious candidate despite another tricky draw.[

Heads down a non runner will make life a lot easier for the market leader who is now trading at odds on 1.93 / 1.12 - concern that this is another one time out maiden horse priced up on the basis of that single run


145 BANGOR
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 My Moment, 7/2 Son Of Flicka, 7/1 Quick De Montot, 10/1 Fiendish Flame, Roganstown, 14/1 Mollys Garden, Walk Tall, 20/1 All Three Fables, Colonel Potter, Illogical Hope, Phamtom Du Lac, 25/1 Lambrini Classic, Mac Halen, 33/1 Curries Brae, Fredrico.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MY MOMENT (nap) can build upon the solid platform of his Aintree win to defy this penalty. Son Of Flicka may have to settle for second again.[

3 sub 10/1 and in the live amrket it is 4 sub 20/1 with My moment trading at evens with Blue Square currently. Roganstown probably the each way option here and has been clipped into 6/1
2.14 / 1.23 - a big field but with only 4 runners under 20/1 in the live market, this suggests an uncompetitive affair
210 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fantasy Fighter, 7/2 Bollin Franny, 7/1 Charmel´s Lad, Green Velvet, 10/1 Kindallachan, Night Prospector, Willhewiz, 14/1 Desert Light, 25/1 Ishibee, Rightcar Lewis, 33/1 Flying Free, One Way Ticket.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fantasy Fighter isn't straightforward and although he should go well after last week's Great Leighs victory, preference is for BOLLIN FRANNY who has run three solid races over this C&D and is capable of going well from this mark
Low grade handicap here and FAntasy fighter currently 7/4 Watch out for Ishibee who is 14/1 and could be a 16/1 system bet 3.2 / 1.43 -price indicative of the fact this is no gimme for FAntasy Fighter

235 NEWB
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Tricky Trickster, 11/2 Or Jaune, 6/1 Borero, 13/2 Tank Top, 15/2 Matcho Pierji, 11/1 Alfasonic, 14/1 Kildonnan, 16/1 Keepitsecret, 20/1 Orphelin Collonges, 25/1 Sharajan, 40/1 Lancaster Sound.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The winners have dried up badly for his stable in the last three weeks but enough have still been running with credit to bolster confidence sufficiently in TRICKY TRICKSTER (nap) who looked excellent horse-to-follow material here on Hennessy day. Or Jaune is next on the list.[

3 miles in soft not ideal but teh fav is holding up at the head of the market - Borero is the each way candidate here judging by the early market move 3 / 1.54

ONE A DAY

All in all an unappetising bunch today ,compounded by the soft ground at the jumps venues and the big fields over the jumps.Just how sharp is Ruby? Is he able to give 100% still? That's the question regarding hurdling debutant Hebridean
the 145 Bangor looks the most likeliest race - On Betfair, as well as the live market, we face 4 horses sub 20/1. Son of flicka has come 2nd on 4 occasions and at 1.48 is tasty for the place market. My moment has a penalty to overcome and is 1.23 to place. I will chance My Moment, although the more adventurous can see Son of Flicka as a good place option particularly at the price, safe in the knowledge athat at 1.48, to make your 1.43% would require significantly smaller stake. Roganstown each way could also be an option here AS LONG AS there are no dark horses over 20/1

Looking away from the soft ground and big fields we have the 135 Lingfield - 2 non runenrs make this a 10 runner affair. Pezula is odds on because 2nd fav a non runner. Only 3 horses sub 14/1 which is encouraging. Pezula has a bad draw to overcome BUT over 7 furlongs, how signifcant is the draw?
Always worth a look at the analysis of the last race

Pezula Bay is a half-brother to Easy Lover, who won twice at two, including over this course and distance, but he was weak in the market on his debut. Drawn out in stall one, he was slowly away and ran green, but his rider got him over to the inside rail and that did him no harm. Keeping on well at the finish, he looks sure to come on a bundle for this, and should be capable of winning a similar race.

So we have a one time out odds on favourite, badly drawn (BUT coped admirably last time) who came 2nd at 16/1 BUT we have a race whose market indicates only 3 are in with realistic chances - we have 2 clear outsiders bringing the competitive field down to 8 . I will chance this one as my one a day based on the 2nd fav being a non runner and the betting market indicating a lot of deadwood