Tuesday 23 December 2008

23/12

National Petition placed ( actually won!) and there were many opportunities throughout the day, such as Musical Script who was heavily backed yesterday and won (and placed of course!) So the 100% record continues

1230 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Badge Of Honour, Joannadarc, 6/1 King´s Chorister, Trueblue Wizard, 20/1 Manana Manana, Solo Choice, Tinshu, 33/1 Consequence, 66/1 Lonsdale Lad.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Joannadarc is the pick of those with previous experience but she's not bombproof in this grade and the most interesting pair are newcomers BADGE OF HONOUR and Trueblue Wizard. The market will be the best guide but preference is for the former, whose yard has such a good record at this course.

Joannadarc is now odds on herewith Truebluewizard the each way horse in a race where only 4 horses are sub 16/1

1245 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Solent,(1.42) 3/1 Friendly King,(1.48) Limbo King,(1.34) 12/1 Teddy´s Reflection, 16/1 Colombard, 20/1 Madness, Nicobar, 25/1 Chase The Dawn, Feel The Force, 50/1 Missus Jones, 100/1 Path To Glory.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Solent remains of interest given his ability on the level, while Friendly King is progressing nicely, but James Fanshawe traditionally does well with the relatively few horses that he sends over jumps and LIMBO KING gets the marginal verdict under a rider who is over 30% for the yard in recent seasons

Big boys are out again, and interesting that Colombard for Ruby and Nicholls is now 8/1. Front 3 in the market are between 2/1 and 5/2 - very tight indeed Limbo King is the one for money early doors and could eb the selection of the 3 market leaders to palce

115 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Our Bomber Harris, 5/2 Tullamore Dew, 7/2 Highest Esteem, 10/1 Ashleys Petale, 14/1 Morning Heights, 20/1 Lennox Gardens, 25/1 Bertenbar, 33/1 The Little Chancer, 40/1 Swainson, 100/1 Compleat Artist, Pete The Feat.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: OUR BOMBER HARRIS, who is related to useful hurdler/chaser Oulart and from the family of Simon, Gaye Brief and Gaye Chance, looks likely to build on the promise he's shown in bumpers now sent hurdling. Junior's half-brother Highest Esteem is next on the list, while Tullamore Dew should also be involved if coping with the forecast soft ground

Another Walsh/Nicholls jolly. - interesting betting forecast - only 5 horses sub 20/1 -good each way opportunities on Ashleys Petale and Morning Heights? High Esteem has drifted to 8/1 (but this could be a bookmaker ploy to put us off the scent!) leaving Harris and Dew and the 2 clear market leaders 1.25 / 1.36

130 SOUTHWELL
eBETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Coda Agency, 4/1 Fortunella, 6/1 Red Expresso, 7/1 Daraiym, 10/1 Dusk, 12/1 Very Green, 14/1 Oberlin, 20/1 Amron Hill, 25/1 Gouranga.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Top weight CODA AGENCY (nap) has been enjoying a fine campaign, his latest clear-cut successes both on the Flat and over hurdles suggest he is still on the upgrade and, with doubts over most of the opposition, he can strike again

Good price gap but form of 15161 -the horse can't make up his mind whether to win well or run badly! Is this inconsistency likely to surface again? 2.1 / 1.21

145 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Bold Policy, 7/2 Bench Warrent, Bugsy´s Boy, 7/1 Bobby On The Beat, 10/1 Atlantic Coast, 12/1 Plane Painter, Wild Side Of Life, 14/1 Aspiring Actor, 20/1 You Can Of Course, 40/1 Sparkys Reflection, 50/1 Gone Cloudy, Reykjavik, 66/1 Peyekashe.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Bold Policy hasn't really cut the mustard in handicaps won by Warsaw Pact and Hora this term and he should be more competitive dropped back in grade but BENCH WARRENT gets the vote on only his third run over hurdles. Bugsy's Boy is also respected.

Bench warrant has now become fav in the live market -Wild side of life is now 8/1 - significant or a reaction to ASpiring actor the non runner? 2.64 / 1.31 for BEnch warrant

215 FONT
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Chiaro, 13/8 Or Jaune, 4/1 No Panic, 16/1 Forthright, 25/1 Snow Patrol, 33/1 Radetsky March, 50/1 Bearneen Boy.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Chiaro sets a fairly useful benchmark but it could pay to side with OR JAUNE. Owned by Fontwell Park Partnership, he is 2-2 at this track and looks open to progress after an encouraging effort behind a subsequent improver on his chasing debut at Huntingdon

3 sub 25/1 in a 7 ryunner race - 2 horses are 50/1 and 150/1 reducing the competitive field to 5, 2 of which will place. Tricky choice between the market leaders - as I write, Chiaro has eben clipped from 6/4 into 11/8 with Or Jaune 5/4 and 3rd fav 5/1 - 1.4 both to place

330 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Hennessy Island, 5/1 Outer Hebrides, 6/1 Provost, The City Kid, 10/1 Eternal Optimist, Majestic Cheer, Norcroft, 14/1 Running Buck, 20/1 Fan Club, 33/1 Government.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Provost wouldn't be without a chance but he was well beaten on his previous start on Fibresand so HENNESSY ISLAND is the call. Lack of a recent run isn't too much of a worry and he showed enough on this surface in the first half of this year to suggest he has strong claims in this compan

Nice price gap in the betting forecast still replicated in the live betting - no run since April, but the right man, er, woman onboard in Christmas Cracker Hayley "Head"Turner 3.15 / 1.47

345 FONTWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Ruby Crown, 8/1 Calloff The Search, Twocute, 12/1 Prophete De Guye, Tarkesar, 14/1 Dew Drop Inn, Goscar Rock, 16/1 A Double Ewe Bee, Anna Panna, Wondersobright, 20/1 Champagne Rossini, Sea Robber, 25/1 Campden Annie, Storm Haven, 33/1 Ilewin Rose, 40/1 Hawk Gold, 50/1 Silistra, Tobougg Welcome.

SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A seller in all but name and a weight range of just 7lb. RUBY CROWN (nap) stands out on current form and, although the odds are likely to be skinny, should be hard to beat. Twocute may be the best each-way alternative.

Significant price gap here - 18 runner handicap hurdle means 4 horses to place and those words " should be hard to beat" - caution regarding Spotlight's comments and the size of the field - also price now 9/4 rather than 7/4 - Goscar Rock now 8/1 - quite a price move 3.25 / 1.45

ONE A DAY

A tricky day today with predominantly big fields, long distances, soft ground at Fontwell

1230 SOUTHWELL - follow the money here on Joannadarc ? Now 10/11 in a race where only 4 horses are sub 20/1 , meaning there is a good probability of a place here.

Concern over the maiden status of this race and 2 debutatns installed 2nd and 3rd in the betting along with 4 horses who have only had the onerun and are thuis open to improvement 2 and 1.18 to place

1245 FONT would be my other race here with ,perhaps, a policy of following the money nearer the off and backign the fav to place - currently Limbo King





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