19/12

Nice bit of analysis yesterday - happy with getting a 1.31 instead of a 1.07 and Lujano went on to win!

1245 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Fistral Beach, 3/1 Run For Moor, 11/2 Presenting Forever, 6/1 Midnight Sail, 12/1 Dover´s Hill, 16/1 Emperor Concerto, 20/1 Crime Dont Pay, Project Gallery, 25/1 Bacchanalianbertie, Minella Theatre, 33/1 Rock Salmon, 40/1 Rateable Value, 50/1 More The Merrier, 66/1 Bruff Academy, Gypsy Bob, Lady Omara.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Fistral Beach sets the standard and could prove difficult to beat if this trip brings out the best in him. Run For Moor will be a serious threat if able to shrug off another long absence but PRESENTING FOREVER looked capable of better on his recent hurdling debut and is given the chance to prove that theory correct.[

Again we see the usual suspects at the head of affairs including Henderson / Nicholls and King and their respective first choice jockeys. I am writing the blog a bit earlier than normal and the early markets aer not fully formed but it does look as if there is a significant price gap between the front 4 and the rest of the field who are all 20/1 or bigger

Maiden hurdles are not the ideal races as you can imagine, especially over 2 miles 6 furlongs and I suspect the market leaders are there by reputation as much as anything.

100 SOUTHWELL

BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Came Back, 6/1 Grimes Faith, 10/1 Avoca Dancer, Hamaasy, 12/1 Babel, 14/1 Sea Salt, Soba Jones, 20/1 Head To Head, 33/1 Redeemed, Shadow Jumper, 66/1 Santa Clara, Swallow Senora.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAME BACK is a useful performer in this grade and he won with plenty in hand here last time. The runner-up has won since and he is hard to oppose on his first run for his new stable. Hamaasy may prove best of the rest.[

Nice price gap here which has been eroded a alittle in the live betting market with Grimes Faith currently 7/2. Confidence tempered by the race type - seller

320 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 This Ones For Eddy, 9/4 Barataria, 6/1 Kingsholm, 10/1 Chosen Forever, 12/1 Elk Trail, Elliwan, Louisiade, 16/1 Spume, 66/1 Fitzwarren, Government.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see if the switch to Fibresand revitalises Elk Trail, but the penalised pair This One's For Eddy and BARATARIA (nap) are ahead of the handicapper and can fight out the finish with the latter expected to prove too strong over this trip.[

SHort priced non runner in yesterday's race where Lujano won. Priced as a 2 horse race here with BArataria currently leap frogging This one's for Eddy into favouratism

820 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Appropriate, 5/2 Scene Two, 9/2 Commandingpresence, 8/1 Michael Collins, 10/1 Elements, 20/1 Dependonyou, 25/1 Cause For Applause, Lovely Steps, Tillietudlem, 33/1 Gurteen Diamond,

Interesting to note only 4 horses sub 14/1 here with Appropriate the one for money early doors (and it is some 11 hours before race time!) This is a maiden race and 3 newcomers , 6 horses who have only had the one run and one who has had 2 runs - how on earth are we supposed to read into this severe lack of form without looking at the live market nearer the off ?

ONE A DAY
UPDATE - 1245 AScot - Emperor Concerto now 16/1 but a feeling that any place only selection should be amongst the first 4 in the betting
Fistral BEach 1.39 to place , Run for the Moor 1.56 , Midnight Sail 2.48 , Presenting Forever 2.88

Default selection Fistral Beach?

100 SOUTHWELL - A market which is dominated by CAme BAck and Grimes faith with 12/1 bar the rest.
Came BAck 1.11 to place
Grimes faith 1.43 to place
What is offputting is the fact this is a class 6 seller. An 11 runner race now with 4 horses 66/1 or over in the live betting (and can hopefully be dismissed)
Came Back must be of interest -Spotlight Verdict comments
" SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAME BACK is a useful performer in this grade and he won with plenty in hand here last time. The runner-up has won since and he is hard to oppose on his first run for his new stable. Hamaasy may prove best of the rest"

320 SOUTHWELL - interesting update - This one's for eddy is now a non runner -does this open things up for Barataria - HAyley "Head" Turner is on board adn Kingsholm is the one whose price has reduced to 9/2 with the short priced fav a non runner. Everything else is double figure odds or bigger. 1.14 to place

820 WOLVES - I just don't like the look of this race - bare form is absent making this race one where we must rely on the betting market only for clues

ONE A DAY - reservations about the fact this is a 0-65 handicap class 6, but I will chance Barataria here to place given the news that near market rival is a non runner along with 4th in the betting forecast - field is reduced to 8 runners still paying 3 the place so Barataria has only 5 to beat to place, 2 of which are 33/1 or bigger and can hopefully be dismissed