27/12

Massive return to form for Kauto star and 1.35 the place was a late Xmas gift! keeps the run going .

The advantage of one a day showed itself yesterday as River Shankill was unplaced - so I plumped for the right one!

1210 STHL

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fyodor, 9/2 Yungaburra, 13/2 Calmdownmate, 8/1 Grimes Faith, 12/1 City For Conquest, 14/1 Colorus, Monte Major, 16/1 Dubai To Barnsley, 20/1 Mumaathel, Rocketball, 25/1 Alugat, She´s Our Beauty, 33/1 Head To Head, 40/1 Ducal Regancy Red.


A poor 5 furlong claimer here and not a race I will get involved in - perhaps lay Fyador then if I don't fancy place backing him?
Colorus currently 7/1 and Mumaathel 12/1 - significant? Can we trust these market moves in a race like this? 2.74 / 1.4 for Fyodor

1215 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Wessex King,(1.62) 5/2 Teenage Idol,(1.33) 4/1 Bogside Theatre,(1.58) 7/1 Harry The Hawk, 11/1 Quinder Spring, 14/1 Baltic Pathfinder, Simple Jim, 33/1 The Fabricator, 40/1 Country Servant, Oscar Wild, 100/1 Minster Lane, 200/1 Cawarra Red,

the 2 outsiders are non runners and Bogside Theatre has leapt into 2nd favouratism in a race where 3 dominate at the head of affairs Looking at the place only prices in brackets, Teenage idol is expected to place but the relatively big odds for Wessex and Bogside tell us this is a tricky race

1245 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sir Tantallus Hawk, 2/1 Abstinence, 15/2 Follow On, 10/1 El Chico, Titinius, 12/1 Brian´s Journey, Ginger´s Lad, 16/1 Copper´s Gold, 25/1 Mr Bond, 33/1 Arch, 40/1 Soneva Gili, 100/1 Anne Sian.

Significantly, the front 2 are now 5/4 and 15/8 with next best at 14/1 - Abstinence is the one who has shortened the most 1.25 and 1.3 for Sir Tantallus - may be worth following the money here for Abstinence?

105 KEMPTON

BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Starluck(1.21), 4/1 Balzaccio(1.53), 5/1 Classic Swain,(1.69) 9/1 Ramona Chase, 10/1 Der Spieler, Silk Affair, 14/1 True Blue Saga, 16/1 Perlon, 66/1 Time To Play, 100/1 Hawkstar Express.

Again the front 3 are 4/1 or lower with the 4th fav 14/1. Starluck and Balzaccio both carry "sizeable penalties" as Spotlight describes it. Classic Swain does not. Again Nicholls and King cross swords on 2 of the front 3 Despite the penalty, Starluck is expected to place at least here with the other 2 breaching the 1.50 barrier (which we saw yesterday is an important consideration)

140 KEMP

BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Oumeyade,(1.21) 2/1 Deep Purple,(1.67) 11/2 French Opera,(2.22) 16/1 Peredur, 25/1 Original, 100/1 Passato.

Only 2 to place but 3 of the field are 25/1 or bigger! Another Nicholls hotpot with McCoy on board this time Again the market is hinting at confidence behind Oumeyade BUT a chance could be taken on one of the other 2 if we look at the place only odds for the rest of the field - 10.5 , 19 , and 44 !!!

155 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Sacrilege(1.33), 11/4 Art Exhibition(1.38), Pemberton,(1.44) 14/1 Amir Pasha, Segal, Thunderstruck, 16/1 He´s A Geezer, 25/1 Capal Dubh Alainn, 150/1 Baileys Benchmark, Tank Commander.

Tricky from a form perspective - only one run for the majority and Segal is the debutant so added emphasis on what the live market might reveal.
Yet again, as is characteristic with the races so far, the ebtting is dominated by the front 3 with the 4th horse 14/1 or bigger.
Art Exhibition at 2/1 is only marginally behind Sacrelige at 7/4 - the difference is negligible Place only prices amongst the front 3 are negligible

230 WETHERBY

BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Tot O´Whiskey, 11/4 Pop, Will Be Done, 3/1 Striking Article, 100/1 Lusento.

Lusento is out and the front 4 cannot really be separated price wise. This allows for a very decent place only price if we nail our colours to one horse. Tot o whiskey has been a Martin Blakey selection when 2nd and 1st previously - it's simply lucky dip here but worthy of consideration given the prices Place prices are 1.97 , 1.86 , 1.95 and 2.06. HUGE place only prices - 2 places -side with the market leader perhaps? Or if 2 go to 2.00 we can back both !



720 GREAT LEIGHS

BETTING FORECAST: Evs The Magic Of Rio, 7/4 Gone Hunting, 6/1 Fangfoss Girls, 16/1 Sorrel Ridge, 25/1 Mandhooma.
Shortlisted last night but looks a messy race to unravel for me with Fangfoss girls a bit shorter and Sorrel ridge at 12/1



820 GREAT LEIGHS

BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Azure Mist, 5/2 King´s Colour, 4/1 Comrade Cotton, 12/1 Bury Treasure, Lopinot, 14/1 Lady Aspen, 20/1 Wahoo Sam.

Wahoo Sam now 7/1 and a decent each way price. The betting forecast was interesting with only 3 sub 12/1 but it has now changed significantly so a no play for me

SHORTLIST

It's a tricky day today with top heavy markets in nearly all of the markets. Will the clear ,say, 3 market leaders finish 1-2-3 ? That is the hope of course!

Oumeyade looks an obvious candidate today for me, albeit in a 2 the place race which is not ideal. Abstinence would be worth a second look. For me, this is very much a day to take cues from the live markets, but as things stand it would seem Oumeyade only needs to stay upright and beat 1 to place (as long as the outsiders run as outsiders!)

The 230 Wetherby is a race where you can chance one of the 4 at very big place only prices - and if doing this as a target profit per day ,the stake will be £2 or thereabouts whoever you consider!