back-lay-trade-horse-football is a blog for getting an edge in gambling. We cover backing horses,laying horses, and trading on the betting exchanges like Betfair. We also cover backing and laying in football matches ,the Premiership and other leagues. You can profit from soccer betting -we'll show you how.
My one selection Super Fourteen won which was good. MAdame President's race was very interesting - would you chance a selection in a race where 5 horses were priced 1.5 - 2 in the place only market. As it turned out it was a race to avoid with MAdame President unplaced. The value of analysis eh and selecting just one!
SEDEGFIELD Jumps aracing always fill me with trepidation from a place backing perspective - a fall is all that's needed from a short priced fav to scupper things! 230
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Royal Rationale looks best of the penalised contenders but even he's vulnerable with the extra weight and a chance is taken on capable Flat performer STOIC LEADER, who should make an impact if the ground remains on top
On first viewing Royal Rationale looks a likely price gapper but the horse is currently 4/1 in the early market - now we can view this as value or a warning sign - me being cautious it's the latter BEdizen (7/1) and Bow School (14/1) are potential gambles but its a no play for me 4.6 win 1.7 place signifies a lack of confidence
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not many with realistic claims and PALACE WALK, down in both grade and trip, can make the most of the weight he receives from Wildbach and Zamboozle
Again drifts amongst the market leaders could signal that the betting forecaster in the Racing Post has Sedgefield all wrong or lack of general confidence today amongst punters Another potential probability bet race with only 3 horses sub double figure odds. Palace walk - 3.85 win 1.65 place Wildbach 3.75 win 1.62 place Zamboozle 6.8 win 2.28 place
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact he got turned over at short odds in a hurdle race here on his only previous visit has to sound a note of caution, but WISE OWL was just about the best of these in that discipline and he can be counted a shade unfortunate not to have opened his account over fences in a stronger race than this at Worcester last time.
Again fav at 10/3 early market - coincidence that betting forecast and live market differ ? This makes life difficult when interpreting these races 4 win 1.68 place
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these can be given an each-way shout but URBAN WARRIOR (nap) is not easily opposed after winning with so much to spare at Plumpton, especially as there's probably even more improvement to come in this sphere.
The only shortie whose price is reflected in the live market - watch out for Alpha Juliet trading at 5/1 from 10/1 betting forecast ( Scutch Mill a non runner might cause this price drop) but it makes Alpha a 2nd favourite 2.64 win 1.35 place Alpha Juliet - 5.7 win 1.94 place
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Risky Capital is an interesting newcomer but this looks between PLOTTING and Silent Wonder. Slight preference on her AW debut is for the former, who shaped with plenty of promise on her debut and, although she didn't build on that next time, she's well worth another chance in this company
Potential 2 horse race - favourite is all weather debutant - 2 newcomers in this maiden -3 of the 9 are 33/1 or over - money for Silent wonder with Plotting out to 9/4 - interesting that the 2 newcomers are qoted 3rd and 4th market leaders in betting forecast Silent Wonder 2.44 win 1.22 place Plotting 3.3 win 1.33 place
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Peter Chapple-Hyam has an impressive 32% strike-rate with his 2yos here in recent years and BAARIQ can enhance his record, possibly at the main expense of Wilfred Pickles
2 year old maiden -class 5 - low grade - fav remains solid bt Wilfred Pickles is now 2nd fav - 1 debutant and 7 one time out runners open to improvement. 2.38 win 1.3 place
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Furious Belle will be a warm favourite after her promising debut but the outside draw is no help and there could be value in taking her on (each-way) with DAHAMA, one of a number of her rivals who have shaped with promise
Outside draw a concern here but how mch of a hindrance over 7 furlongs? 6 horses over 33/1 lessen the rivalry. Installed favourite after only one run . 2.74 win 1.33 place
SHORTLIST
Unappetising throughot all cards today with ifs and buts about everything Very tricky today Place only on the market fav in the 330 SEDGEFIELD - probably Palace Walk in what looks a race conerning 3 horses - simply a probability bet 250 SOUTHWELL - back the fav to place in what looks to be a 2 horse race
Nice that the shortlisters both placed on Saturday -Fantasia and Henry the Navigator - Rainbow View the obvios one but I thought ,probability wise, Fantasia had a great place chance and so it proved at far enhanced place only odds of 1.62 410 BATH BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Madam President, 7/2 Orange River, 4/1 Beauchamp Wonder, Suede, 6/1 Basanti, 20/1 Ochenvay, 33/1 Nyumba, 50/1 Dawn Wind, Les Allues,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looked weak before the withdrawal of Sayyedati Symphony and the market will help in several cases. As things stand, MADAM PRESIDENT, who ran in a better race at Windsor last time, is given the chance to confirm debut promise
Possible probability bet here- 4 over 20/1 can be dismissed? 5 horses in it to place - 3 will place so 2 to dismiss. Perhaps the fav in the live betting market is the one to chose? 3.8 win 1.5 place - very tight head of the market here with 5 horses between 1.5 and 2 in place only odds
Another probability race but Viking Rock, a debutant , is crrently 12/1 - money for this one in this maiden? Could be significant Super Fourteen could be the one having had plenty of runs. Molnaya is a debutant and nearer market rival - 2.74 win, 1.26 place Viking Rock is 3.15 for the place if the market move is sustained up to the race time
16 runner claimer is hardly awe inspiring - Obe brave now out to 5/2 which doesn't augur well. Too mch can go wrong in a race of this type for me - 3.5 win 1.61 place - the place odds give away the game here - looks far too big to be a safe bet
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Plenty of in-form types on show here and the likes of Peter Island, Haajes and Adantino are all respected. TUBBY ISAACS has begun life at the right end of the weights though and a 7lb rise is unlikely to be enough to prevent him completing the hat-trick.[PSm]
On a hatrick and currently out to 7/2 doesn't look too positive - 4 the place at least in this 16 runner handicap 4.8 win 1.72 place - see above
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Agente Parmigiano has stacks in hand on BHA ratings and the evidence of his latest start would suggest that he isn't flattered by his current mark. He hasn't always looked straightforward though and this trip isn't certain to suit. Abuelito John looks the pick of those to have run in sellers previously but VIRGINIA'S CHOICE turned in an improved performance at Salisbury last time and could be the one to be with this time.
Strong fav but a seller - crrently evens so there is spport -Virginias Choice is the only other horse not in double figure odds and were it not for the race type, this could be a good place only bet 1.25 place and 1.99 win on fav BUT Virginias choice is 2.06 place (albeit in a market where there is little punter involvement)
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Both Special Reserve and Majeen have become expensive to follow and this looks a good opportunity for BLESSING, whose Newmarket second to Mawatheeq is working out well.
Another maiden race in a day full of big fields and poor race types. Another potential probability bet if the market is accrate. Early prices indicate 7 of the 14 runners are 100/1 or bigger and can hopefully be dismissed. This, of course, makes life a lot easier for the remaining 7 who only have 4 to beat to place. Of the remaining 7, 2 are 33/1 and one is 50/1. Th head of the market - 4/6, 3/1 and 8/1 - perhaps this 3/1 shot is interesting from a "fantasia" like enhanced place only bet, avoiding the favourite? 1.61 win 1.12 place - Frankie Dettori on board ( not Spencer!) - Special reserve 1.33 place
SHORTLIST MArket favourite in the 410 at BAth from a probability perspective only really has 2 to beat to place - I presume it will be Madam President - 1.5 place only indicates the first 5 all have chances here but in our favour is probability - it's a simple role of the dice - 3 of the 5 will place but which 3? Agent Parmagio is interesting as there has been support for him but it is a big field seller - againcan we be speculative on Virginias Choice to place as the only other horse under double figure odds? - evens for Virginias choice is a little bit of a risk but might be worth taking? Super Fourteen is another probability bet but what of the potential market mover - he will have to be monitored and to be fair, 3.15 , with 2% compounding target, means much reduced stakes but is far more speculative
ONE BET - will be Super Fourteen today I think - the market move not withstanding, I am taken by the probability aspect again. Wold be interesting to see how Virginias Choice runs
Lesson learned yesterday - these maidens are very unpredictable, and yet again JAmie Spencer manages to get a favourite unplaced ( no conspiracy theories!) Pennys Gift - when you have a price gap of 6/4 - - - 14/1 well that says it all and Pennys Placed at 1.62 and that really should have been a selection on price gap alone regardless of the 29 runners!
So Chocalicious, despite, heavy support (in a nother maiden) unpalced and Standpoint a convenient (not) 4th I always chose just one a day so missed out on the first choice Chocalicious
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to get away from RAINBOW VIEW who has oozed class in all her starts and clearly rates ahead of two of her principal rivals in Fantasia and Golden Stream on collateral formlines. That said, the latter pair, in company with Irish challenger Dreamtheimpossible, are unexposed and this could be messy with no guaranteed pace. Golden Stream is suggested as the best each-way option and forecast proposition
Well at least 4 perceived outsiders and a short priced favourite. 4 perceived outsiders - if we can be so bold as to dismiss their chances of invovement in the finish, then the remaining 4 horses have 1 to beat to place. 1.45 win 1.09 place Is there any reason why we cannot be adventrous here - I know yesterday I strayed from the rock solid selections but 4 horses, in the live market, are 50/1 or bigger so probability wise, can we not boost the 1.09 place for the obvious contender by backing one selection from the remaining 4? Most obvious is Fantasia -2nd fav at 1.61
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The European miling championship is up for grabs here and TAMAYUZ (nap) is expected to claim the crown. It was impossible not to be impressed with the way he brushed aside the opposition in the Marois and it looks like he has more to offer. Today's ground will suit Henrythenavigator better than that he encountered in the Moulin last time but he is no certainty to confirm his earlier superiority over Raven's Pass, who allowed the O'Brien colt first run in both the St James's Palace and the Sussex but has since shown that he does not need to be ridden with such exaggerated hold-up tactics
A potential 3 horse race here in a 7 runner field - so the 3 have to beat 1 horse to place PLACES Henry 1.47 Tamayuz - 1.67 Ravens Pass 1.97 Big rellative place only prices given only 2 the place
We have seen how poorly maidens have performed when "price gappers" -Imaan unplaced, MAster Rooney unplaced ( at 1/20 on to place) Of interest here is the 5 horses post 33/1 - support has come for the fav but this is another maiden fillies race
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:WELLINGTON SQUARE has shaped with promise on both starts to date and looks to have a good chance to get off the mark. Vine Street might be capable of better away from easy ground, whilst Scarab is worth a check in the market
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:HATTAN will be hard to beat if reproducing the form of his two Group Three Polytrack wins this year and he shapes as if this extra distance shouldn't be a problem. Red Gala looks the best alternative.[HT]
A potential 3 horse race and 3 to place - so its simply getting the right selection of the 3 most likely
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Lilly Blue could be hard to beat if she reproduces what she appeared to show at Goodwood but a more solid option may be fellow Classic entrant FALLEN IN LOVE, whose yard has won this race four times in the past decade. None of the newcomers hold fancy engagements but any market moves should be noted all the same.
Not another maiden! Fallen in lovce interestingly into 7/4 with Lilly Blue out to 4/1 but this did nothing for Chocalicious yesterday - Piquante a non runner makes life easier ( installed as 4th fav so one less rival to worry about)
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting event in which unbeaten chaser OUZBECK makes plenty of appeal. He's hardly put a foot wrong in three starts over fences, should have no problems with this longer trip and can take this en route to better things. My Turn Now looks the chief threat.
Little bit of money for My Turn now with fav currently 4/5 "should" have no problems with longer trip - if backing 4/5 we want to see " WILL" have no.... 8 runners is 3 the place - 2 horses at 40/1 and 100/1 should reduce the competitive field
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for easy C&D winner FRASCATI PARK to add to his tally. He lost nothing in defeat in a stronger race than this one at Galway when last seen in early August and is taken to beat Son Of Flicka.
A bumper race so market important
A lot to mull over today from a place only perspective. Obvious candidate is Rainbow View, but the obvious-ness is figured into the 1.09 price. SHORTLIST Perhaps Fantasia to place at 1.61 in the same race from a probability perspective? 1.48 for Henry the navigator is enticing? Perhaps in his race backing the live market favourite to place will ensure the most popular of the 3 most likely will be on our side The 850 at GReat LEighs is another possible probability type race
Current prices ( some 8+ hours till race goes off mind you!) Again perhaps the live market leader here to place?
FINAL SELECTION - will be in the first named race at Ascot and Fantasia to place from a probability perspective OR the 2nd favourite in the live market to Rainbow View if it is not Fantasia - this will enable us to capture any likely fancy. Of course rock solid is Rainbow view to keep the record up.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A true test looks assured but it can pay to take the slight risk about ORIZABA's stamina. There was no sign of him stopping over 7f at Goodwood and, with that form solid, he can defy a penalty at the main expense of highly promising Cityscape, who is taken to reverse Newmarket form with Almiqdaad now they are on an equal footing in terms of experience
Almiqdaad and Indian Ocean each way incasse the front 2 don't consent to give their rnning
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Scottish raider Dhaular Dhar deserves a big prize after his fine C&D seconds in the Buckingham Palace and the totesport International and back under his ideal conditions he has to be high on the list. The smart Polytrack performer Atlantic Story is also interesting now back at a more suitable trip off his lower grass mark as this surface should prove ideal, but preference is for RELATIVE ORDER who has done nothing but improve all year and has won his only start on the track.
Huge field - lowest price is 12/1 the fav! I will ignore all selections 20/1 and lower and chance Signor Peltro ( 22/1) , Golden Desert ( 25/1) and Extraterrestrial(25/1) the next 3 over 20/1 each way - I expect no return whatsoever bt, hey, at the prices.....!
415 ASCOT -using speciailist software I would engineer a win on Tamayuz and break even on the other 2 horses just to speculatie on the piggy in the middle! - stakes are just for examples sake.
You are betting FOR Henrythenavigator to win.You are betting FOR Henrythenavigator to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £120.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £158.40. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
Tamayuz
3.25
£100.00
£225.00
You are betting FOR Tamayuz to win.You are betting FOR Tamayuz to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £100.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £225.00. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:PERSIAN MEMORIES ran way above market expectations at Goodwood when last seen and is taken to progress past 76-rated Purple Sage.
Diamond Surprise each way for me with Damselfly a non runner and the race type hopefully ensuring one ( or preferably both) of the first 2 dont give their running
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Well-bred SURREALISM was a bit green on her debut but showed plenty of promise and should be more clued up this time. She'll take a bit of beating, especially if she's positively ridden to take advantage of her draw on the inside rail, with her more dangerous opponents, Filigree Lace, Royal Manor and Hamalka all drawn quite wide
Emirates LAdy and Cullybackety each way given the race type - 5th and 7th betting forecast favs
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT:Lilly Blue could be hard to beat if she reproduces what she appeared to show at Goodwood but a more solid option may be fellow Classic entrant FALLEN IN LOVE, whose yard has won this race four times in the past decade. None of the newcomers hold fancy engagements but any market moves should be noted all the same.
Maiden fillies - Chance Bessie Lou and Valletta each way
135 MR - chance on first 3 - all over 3/1 so backable to level stakes
Unfurled
4.5
£10.00
£35.00
You are betting FOR Unfurled to win.You are betting FOR Unfurled to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £10.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £35.00. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
Maslak
4.4
£10.00
£34.00
You are betting FOR Maslak to win.You are betting FOR Maslak to win. If you win, 'Your Stake' of £10.00 is returned to you together with a profit of £34.00. If you lose you lose 'Your Stake'.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An interesting event in which unbeaten chaser OUZBECK makes plenty of appeal. He's hardly put a foot wrong in three starts over fences, should have no problems with this longer trip and can take this en route to better things. My Turn Now looks the chief threat.
